Market week ending Friday, October 23, 2026
Read the timing gap. These positions are a Tuesday, October 20 snapshot, published Friday. The price commentary runs through Friday, October 23. When the two disagree, positioning has likely already shifted. Friday’s Cattle on Feed landed after the close, so these numbers don’t include any reaction to it.
We lead with Managed Money because speculative positioning shows where the risk sits. Commercials show where the grain and the cattle are. When the two move apart, that gap usually matters more than either number on its own.
The week in prices
| Market | Contract | Oct 16 | Oct 23 | Week |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corn | Dec 2026 | $4.7425 | $4.5600 | −18¼¢ |
| Soybeans | Nov 2026 | $12.6125 | $12.5650 | −4¾¢ |
| Chicago SRW wheat | Dec 2026 | $6.6050 | $6.2500 | −35½¢ |
| Feeder cattle | Nov 2026 | $341.900 | $348.125 | +$6.225 |
| Live cattle | Dec 2026 | $228.350 | $231.125 | +$2.775 |
| Lean hogs | Dec 2026 | $66.925 | $65.575 | −$1.350 |
Settlement prices. Verify against your own quote provider before acting on them.
Managed Money reduced exposure in corn, soybeans and wheat, and added in feeders and live cattle. Five of the six markets moved the same direction as price. Lean hogs was the only one out of step, and only by 955 contracts.
The corn number is the one to sit with. Funds sold another 84,620 contracts, a third straight flagged week, and each week has been bigger than the last as a share of what was left: 16.0 percent, then 27.3, then 36.7. The net long is down to 146,257 contracts from 426,842 on September 15. Nearly two-thirds of that position has gone in five weeks.
In wheat, something rarer happened. Commercials covered 18,448 contracts of their short. Managed Money added 18,096 to theirs. Those are 352 contracts apart. In one week, the wheat short effectively moved from the people who handle the grain to the people who trade it, and funds are now more net short than commercials for the first time in this series.
Producer takeaway (opinion): the fund selling that has driven corn lower since mid-September has far less left to sell. That is not a bottom, and we are not calling one. The next move in corn will likely come from demand rather than liquidation, which makes this week’s export numbers more important than usual.
Monday brings Crop Progress, the first trade reaction to Friday’s Cattle on Feed, and the debut of USDA’s regional negotiated cash-cattle report covering Colorado, Texas, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Kansas. Monday is also the market’s first trading reaction to the NASS September corn correction. Thursday brings export sales. The next WASDE is November 10.
If you have not read it, our October WASDE scorecard covers the balance sheet behind this corn market, and how funds position around a scheduled report explains the pattern we keep seeing in these numbers.
Corn · CFTC 002602
Three weeks of selling, and it sped up every time
The week. December corn settled at $4.5600, down 18¼ cents, its lowest close in three and a half months.
Managed Money net long: 146,257 contracts, down 84,620 on the week (−36.7%).
| Tuesday | Commercials | WoW Δ | Managed Money | WoW Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29 | −682,757 | — | +377,850 | — |
| Oct 6 | −634,970 | +47,787 | +317,359 | −60,491 ‡ |
| Oct 13 | −553,240 | +81,730 ‡ | +230,877 | −86,482 ‡ |
| Oct 20 | −475,947 | +77,293 ‡ | +146,257 | −84,620 ‡ |
WoW Δ is the change from the prior Tuesday. ‡ marks a swing over 10 percent of the prior week’s net.
Both sides shrank hard. Commercials bought back 206,810 contracts of their net short over four weeks, a 30.3 percent reduction. At this pace, both groups are dismantling the position, not handing it to the other.
The fundamentals cut both ways. Net sales of 1.53 million tonnes came in 87 percent above the four-week average and beat expectations — but shipments fell 43 percent to 780,300 tonnes, and commitments are still 34 percent behind last year. Harvest hit 44 percent, eight points below average, with Iowa at just 26 percent, so a large share of USDA’s 16.034 billion-bushel October crop remains.
Late Friday, NASS corrected its September corn estimates for Kansas and Nebraska after a processing error. The September United States yield moved from 178.5 to 178.8 bushels per acre, and production moved from 15.800 to 15.828 billion bushels. The October forecast of 181.2 bushels per acre and 16.034 billion bushels was reviewed and left unchanged, so October’s increase over September was 2.4 bushels, not the 2.7 first reported. Friday’s settlement came before the notice.
Selling: the national basis held at 39 cents under December all week while futures dropped 18¼ cents, putting the DTN National Corn Index at $4.22 Thursday. The whole loss came off the board, not out of your basis. That may not hold — Iowa still has three-quarters of its crop in the field, and if those bushels arrive in a narrow window, basis will show pressure first.
Storing: December-to-March carry is 14¼ cents. That is the market paying you to wait. Whether it covers your drying and storage is arithmetic only you can do, and in our opinion it is the single calculation worth running this week.
Buying (feedlots, ethanol, processors): cash corn is at its cheapest of the fall, and that same 14¼-cent carry pays you to own inventory rather than buy hand to mouth.
Soybeans · CFTC 005602
The crowded long finally gave ground
The week. November soybeans settled at $12.5650, down 4¾ cents after recovering Thursday and Friday.
Managed Money net long: 206,936 contracts, down 30,555 on the week (−12.9%).
| Tuesday | Commercials | WoW Δ | Managed Money | WoW Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29 | −275,388 | — | +241,164 | — |
| Oct 6 | −294,601 | −19,213 | +251,660 | +10,496 |
| Oct 13 | −274,184 | +20,417 | +237,491 | −14,169 |
| Oct 20 | −250,428 | +23,756 | +206,936 | −30,555 ‡ |
WoW Δ is the change from the prior Tuesday. ‡ marks a swing over 10 percent of the prior week’s net.
Last week soybeans held the most crowded long on the board. This week it posted its first flagged reduction of the month. Still a 206,936-contract long, but the direction has turned.
Demand was easily the best of the three grains: net sales of 2.84 million tonnes including 2.18 million to China, shipments up 75 percent to 2.02 million tonnes, and outstanding commitments to China at 13.45 million tonnes — more than half the 25 million-tonne target the White House has set through 2028. Harvest is on schedule at 64 percent, and that delivery pace kept the export news from lifting prices. Rising crude oil helped the oilseed complex late in the week, which matters more for soybean oil than for the bean itself.
Where you farm decides whether you see this demand. National average basis is about 59 cents under November. The export-channel basis is a different market entirely: St. Louis track firmed to 30 cents over, and barges at the Gulf reached 109 cents over. If you are reading about record Chinese buying and your own bid has not moved, that spread is why. Check your bid against the national average before you decide what this demand is worth to you.
Watch the contract roll. As November approaches delivery the reference month shifts to January, which settled at $12.685. Quoting basis against November past first notice day compares you to a contract that is no longer the market.
Buying (crushers, feed manufacturers): export competition is building in the river and Gulf markets even with futures flat. If you source near those channels, your competition for beans just got stronger.
Wheat · CFTC 001602 · Chicago SRW
The short changed hands in a single week
The week. December Chicago wheat settled at $6.2500, down 35½ cents. Kansas City hard red winter fell 39½ cents to $6.64½, a three-month low, and Minneapolis spring wheat fell 35 cents.
Managed Money net short: 51,134 contracts, 18,096 deeper on the week (−54.8%).
| Tuesday | Commercials | WoW Δ | Managed Money | WoW Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29 | −51,406 | — | −21,670 | — |
| Oct 6 | −47,758 | +3,648 | −29,543 | −7,873 ‡ |
| Oct 13 | −44,148 | +3,610 | −33,038 | −3,495 ‡ |
| Oct 20 | −25,700 | +18,448 ‡ | −51,134 | −18,096 ‡ |
WoW Δ is the change from the prior Tuesday. ‡ marks a swing over 10 percent of the prior week’s net.
Put those two Oct 20 numbers side by side. Commercials covered 18,448. Funds added 18,096. Across four weeks, commercials have halved their short from 51,406 to 25,700, while Managed Money went from 21,670 short to 51,134. The two groups hold shorts for very different reasons—one to price a crop, the other to profit from a decline—and this week they swapped places.
Demand is the problem underneath it. Net sales of 239,600 tonnes missed expectations and ran 28 percent under the four-week average, with commitments down 32 percent year over year. Russia and Ukraine peace-talk headlines pressured prices midweek, then a merchant ship was hit in the Black Sea on Friday. Winter wheat planting reached 63 percent, ahead of normal.
Selling: the useful number is the bid for your class and protein, not the Chicago board. Kansas City fell harder than Chicago this week, 39½ against 35½, and at $6.64½ it is at a three-month low — a hard red winter grower had a worse week than the Chicago headline shows.
Feeding: wheat is back in the conversation at $6.25, but corn fell 18¼ cents in the same week. Run it delivered and nutrient-adjusted before you switch — the relative value may not have moved as much as the wheat number alone suggests.
Worth knowing: a market where funds carry a 51,134-contract short can move quickly on news that changes the supply picture. Black Sea shipping is the obvious candidate. In our opinion that cuts both ways, and it is a reason to have a plan written down rather than to predict a direction.
Feeder Cattle · CFTC 061641
Strongest market on the board, and both sides pressing
The week. November feeders settled at $348.125, up $6.225 — the best of the six markets and their highest in more than three months.
Managed Money net long: 10,444 contracts, up 1,592 on the week (+18.0%).
| Tuesday | Commercials | WoW Δ | Managed Money | WoW Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29 | −4,532 | — | +7,638 | — |
| Oct 6 | −6,826 | −2,294 ‡ | +8,787 | +1,149 ‡ |
| Oct 13 | −6,593 | +233 | +8,852 | +65 |
| Oct 20 | −7,494 | −901 ‡ | +10,444 | +1,592 ‡ |
WoW Δ is the change from the prior Tuesday. ‡ marks a swing over 10 percent of the prior week’s net. Read the contract counts here, not the percentages — this is a small market, and a 1,592-contract week that would not register in corn moves the percentage sharply.
Funds buying, producers hedging, both accelerating. Over four weeks, Managed Money built its long 36.7 percent while commercials went 65.4 percent more net short. Then Friday’s Cattle on Feed landed after the close with September placements at 1.777 million head, 88 percent of a year ago and well below the trade estimate of about 92.6 percent — the lowest September since 1996. Marketings came in at 93 percent of a year ago, and October 1 on-feed inventory was 11.372 million head, slightly under last year.
Two forces are pushing the same way. Corn fell 18¼ cents, lowering the ration. And calves are genuinely scarce: auction feeder sales from September 1 to October 21 totaled about 828,000 head against 950,000 a year earlier, mostly on lighter southern Plains receipts. Friday’s record-low placements suggest that gap will run into the second quarter. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was $343.57, putting November futures at roughly a $4.50 premium to cash.
Selling calves or yearlings: this is among the strongest replacement demand of the fall. What you actually get depends on weight, health program, freight, and who shows up to bid — not on the futures quote. Note the board is already $4.50 over the cash index, so the tight-supply story is partly paid for.
Buying feeders: the corn saving is real, and it is being bid into the calf. Run all three parts together — purchase price, delivered feed at your location, and a realistic fed-cattle sale value. In our view, the key detail is that commercials have added to their net short in three of the last four weeks while buyers kept paying more.
Live Cattle · CFTC 057642
Commercials at their most hedged while price climbed
The week. December live cattle settled at $231.125, unchanged Friday and up $2.775 on the week.
Managed Money net long: 51,143 contracts, up 2,395 on the week (+4.9%).
| Tuesday | Commercials | WoW Δ | Managed Money | WoW Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29 | −102,016 | — | +51,304 | — |
| Oct 6 | −104,535 | −2,519 | +50,920 | −384 |
| Oct 13 | −106,556 | −2,021 | +48,748 | −2,172 |
| Oct 20 | −111,360 | −4,804 | +51,143 | +2,395 |
WoW Δ is the change from the prior Tuesday. ‡ marks a swing over 10 percent of the prior week’s net.
Three straight weeks of commercials adding shorts — 9,344 contracts since September 29 — to the largest net short in this series, with no flagged move in any week. They have been selling into the rally the entire way up, steadily rather than suddenly.
Cash barely traded: about 2,000 head through Friday afternoon around $226 live and $355 dressed, against roughly 91,000 head the prior week at $224.72 and $352.25. Southern bids at $226 found no sellers. The packer side went the other way — Choice boxed beef fell $3.68 to $365.79, while Select rose $2.28 to $352.69, and estimated packer margins swung from positive $70.90 a week earlier to negative $4.10 a head.
Selling fed cattle: cattle supply is tight and Friday’s placement number strengthens your hand. But December futures at $231.125 sit about $5 over the $226 cash trade, and a hedge is only worth the cash price you actually receive. Compare the board against what your buyer is realistically paying, not against last week’s average.
Buying cattle or beef: you are paying more for cattle while Choice softens, and margins just went negative. That combination usually ends with slower slaughter. If you buy beef, watch the squeeze on the packer, because it decides how much product shows up.
Lean Hogs · CFTC 054642
Positioning went quiet, cash kept falling
The week. December lean hogs settled at $65.575, down $1.35 after new contract lows Wednesday and Thursday.
Managed Money net short: 41,133 contracts, 955 lighter on the week (+2.3%).
| Tuesday | Commercials | WoW Δ | Managed Money | WoW Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29 | −30,192 | — | −44,186 | — |
| Oct 6 | −29,885 | +307 | −35,272 | +8,914 ‡ |
| Oct 13 | −27,081 | +2,804 | −42,088 | −6,816 ‡ |
| Oct 20 | −28,079 | −998 | −41,133 | +955 |
WoW Δ is the change from the prior Tuesday. ‡ marks a swing over 10 percent of the prior week’s net.
After two weeks of large swings, nothing flagged. Funds hold a 41,133-contract short essentially unchanged. This is the one market where positioning and price disagreed — a small cover against a $1.35 decline — and the gap is too small to read anything into.
The physical market keeps falling. The cutout dropped $1.14 Friday to $74.09 against $80.55 a week earlier, and the CME Lean Hog Index fell to $72.15 on October 21. The national base hog price was $67.40 Friday, up 92 cents. December futures sit about $6.50 below the index.
Selling hogs: cash and cutout are both falling, and Friday’s 92-cent bounce is one day. The question worth answering is whether December’s $6.50 discount to the index is more or less pessimistic than your own expectation for seasonal cash. That comparison, not the futures level, tells you whether hedging here adds risk or removes it.
Buying pork: wholesale is the cheapest it has been in a long while. If your contracts let you set features or build inventory, this is the window that kind of pricing usually opens.
The bigger picture
This week split along the feed line, and the money split with it. Cheap corn is the single factor moving through all six markets: it drove down the grain complex and helped carry feeders to the best week on the board. If you sell bushels, you had a bad week. If you own cattle, you had a good one. Plenty of operations are on both sides of that line.
The grain story is now about what is left. Corn’s fund long is down roughly two-thirds from September, so the liquidation that drove this market has less fuel in it than it did. Soybeans finally started down the same road while holding the better demand case of the three. Wheat is the one to watch, because funds just took over a short that commercials spent a month handing them, and a market built that way reacts hard to supply news.
In cattle, the key thing to watch is who has been selling into strength. Live cattle commercials have added shorts three weeks running as prices climbed, and feeder commercials hedged harder in the same week funds bought hardest. Those are the people with animals to deliver, and they are locking numbers in.
Positioning describes where risk sits. It does not predict where price goes. Your breakeven, storage cost, and marketing plan decide more about your year than any of these numbers.
Frequently asked questions
Managed Money reduced exposure in all three grains and added in both cattle markets. It sold 84,620 contracts of corn, 30,555 of soybeans and added 18,096 to its wheat short, while buying 1,592 feeder cattle and 2,395 live cattle and covering 955 lean hogs. Five of the six moved in the same direction as the week’s price change.
The corn managed money net long stood at 146,257 contracts on October 20, against 426,842 on September 15 — a reduction of 280,585 contracts, or 65.7 percent, in five weeks. The last three weeks were each larger than the one before as a share of the remaining position: 16.0 percent, then 27.3 percent, then 36.7 percent.
Commercials covered 18,448 contracts of their net short while Managed Money added 18,096 contracts to theirs — figures 352 contracts apart. Over four weeks, Commercials halved their net short from 51,406 to 25,700 contracts while Managed Money went from 21,670 short to 51,134. Funds are now more net short than commercials for the first time in this series.
No. These positions reflect Tuesday, October 20. The September Cattle on Feed report was released after the close on Friday, October 23. September placements came in at 1.777 million head, 88 percent of a year ago and well below the trade estimate of about 92.6 percent, the lowest September since 1996.
Commercial means the Producer, Merchant, Processor, and User net position only. Non-commercial means the Managed Money net position only. We do not combine Swap Dealers or Other Reportables into either category, so our figures will not always match providers who do.
Our brokers farm and feed too. Have your expected production or placements, what is already priced or hedged, and your storage or feeding costs handy.
Sources. Positioning from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission Commitments of Traders report for the week ended October 20, 2026. Settlement prices from USDA Agricultural Marketing Service, Reuters and Pro Farmer — verify against your own quote provider. Crop Progress, Export Sales and Cattle on Feed from USDA. Basis and cash values from DTN and USDA Agricultural Marketing Service.
USDA does not endorse, certify or approve this analysis, Ag Optimus, or Optimus Futures LLC. This material is for general education and information only and is the opinion of Ag Optimus where marked. It is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any futures contract, option, or cash commodity, and it is not individualized marketing, hedging, tax, or legal advice. Trading futures, options and swaps involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors; losses can exceed funds deposited. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Optimus Futures does not maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Rule 1.71. Ag Optimus is a registered DBA of Optimus Futures LLC [NFA ID 0481133]. You make all marketing and trading decisions.
