Corn Fund Liquidation Accelerates After October WASDE

Corn funds did not stop selling after the report — they sold harder

The corn managed money net long fell another 86,482 contracts in the first week containing post-WASDE trade, the largest single-week drop in the series. Nearly half the net long has now gone in four weeks.

• Corn funds accelerated. Managed Money cut another 86,482 contracts, down 27.3 percent in one week. Over four weeks, net long fell from 414,437 to 230,877 contracts—a 44.3 percent reduction.
• Corn commercials covered just as hard. Their net short shrank 172,847 contracts over four weeks, a 23.8 percent reduction, including an 81,730-contract week. Both sides are leaving at once.
• Live cattle has now gone four weeks without a single flagged move in either series, while price reached its highest level since August 7. Commercials kept adding shorts the whole way up.
• Feeder cattle positioning went quiet exactly as futures touched a three-month high. After two enormous commercial weeks, this week was 233 contracts.
• Lean hog funds re-pressed shorts by 6,816 contracts as the pork cutout hit its lowest level since April 2023. The cutout then bounced three dollars on Friday.

The Commitments of Traders report is a snapshot of Tuesday, October 13, published the following Friday. The October WASDE was released Friday, October 9. So unlike last week’s edition—which showed positioning three days before the report—this one captures the trading that followed.

Last week we wrote that the single most informative number coming would be whether Managed Money kept cutting corn or stopped. It kept cutting, and it cut faster. Note the limit: this snapshot closes on Tuesday and includes none of Wednesday through Friday, when the week’s largest wheat decline and the live cattle push to a two-month high occurred.

Commercial is the Producer, Merchant, Processor and User net position only. Managed Money is the Managed Money net position only. We do not fold Swap Dealers or Other Reportables into either figure, which means our numbers will not match providers who do.

The ‡ symbol marks a week-over-week change larger than 10 percent of the prior week’s net position, calculated as the absolute change divided by the absolute prior net. It flags the size of a move relative to where the position started, not the size of the position.

Where we show a 52-week rank, rank 1 is the largest net long of the past 52 weeks and rank 52 the smallest. That is the opposite of the convention some providers use, so check which one you are reading elsewhere. The rank is an Ag Optimus calculation, not a figure the Commodity Futures Trading Commission publishes. This week we have ranks only for corn and soybeans; the other four markets show none.

A month ago the argument against corn was that too many funds were long the same thing at the same time. The selling itself has settled much of that argument. A 230,877-contract net long is still a long, but it is not the crowded position it was on September 22.

In our opinion, that changes what to watch rather than which direction to expect. Liquidation pressure from a crowded long is a finite thing — it ends when the long is gone. Whether the next move comes from fundamentals instead is a question the export pace is better placed to answer than the positioning data.

Nothing in this week’s positioning changes your elevator bid. What it does change is the shape of the risk: the fund selling that has weighed on this market for a month has a smaller position left to work through.

The storage arithmetic is still the decision in front of you. Pull the December-to-July spread, compare it against your real storage and drying cost, and let that decide whether holding unpriced bushels pays. One strong export week is encouraging; it is not yet a demand trend, and it is not a reason to change a storage decision that the carry does not support.

A note on the latest two soybean figures. Exact contract counts for October 13 were not available when this edition was prepared, so that row is shown rounded to the nearest thousand and marked as approximate. The three earlier weeks are exact. We can still state the flag status with confidence: across the full range the rounding allows, both changes fall between roughly 6 and 7 percent, nowhere near the 10 percent threshold. We will publish the exact figures when we have them.

Price fell on a day with fresh Chinese business on the tape. That suggests harvest supply is the stronger force right now, and it is worth noting because export headlines are most likely to talk you out of a pricing decision.

The positioning point is a risk-management one rather than a forecast. Funds hold the largest relative long of the six markets here, and a disappointing crush figure is the kind of news that can move a crowded position. Decide now what you would do on a 50-cent break, while it is hypothetical.

Use your own class, not the all-wheat figure. Hard red winter absorbed most of the export cut in the October report. If you grow soft red winter, the Chicago contract is your reference but the export weakness USDA described was not primarily yours.

On positioning, four consecutive weeks of funds selling into commercial buying describes how the position is built, not where price goes next. It does mean a short base has accumulated, and a market carrying one can move quickly on news that changes the supply picture — Black Sea logistics being the obvious candidate.

The useful observation is not the price level; it is who is selling into it. Commercial net short has grown for three straight weeks while futures reached a two-month high. The people with cattle to deliver are finding these levels worth locking in.

That is not advice to hedge, and it is not a top call — commercials hedge into strength as a matter of routine, which is the job. But if you have cattle coming and have been waiting for a better number, this is the week to decide what number would make you act, and to notice that a large, informed group has already answered that question for itself.

The feed-cost relief is real, and it is now a month old. Corn has fallen, and the feeding side of the margin has genuinely improved. But feeders at a three-month high are the other half of that equation, and a cheaper ration bought with a more expensive animal doesn’t improve the margin.

Run the three parts together on your own numbers: delivered corn at your location, the purchase price in front of you, and a realistic fed-cattle sale value rather than today’s board. If the margin only works because you assumed the board holds, you should know that before you buy, not after.

Note the sequence. Funds added 6,816 contracts to their short in the week ending Tuesday. The pork cutout then hit its lowest level since April 2023 on Thursday and rebounded three dollars to $80.55 on Friday. The positioning data stops on Tuesday, so none of that cutout move is in the table above — but it means specs were getting shorter into the low rather than after it.

A market with a 42,088-contract fund short and a cutout bouncing off a multi-year low has the ingredients for a sharp move if the cash side firms. That describes the setup, not a prediction, and the same setup has failed to produce anything for three weeks.

Watch the cutout rather than the futures. USDA told you plainly in October that wholesale weakness is what is holding its price forecast down. If the cutout keeps the Friday gain through this week, that is evidence. A two-day bounce from the lowest level since April 2023 is not yet.

The corn managed money net long fell from 414,437 contracts on September 22 to 230,877 on October 13, a reduction of 183,560 contracts or 44.3 percent in four weeks. The largest single-week move was the most recent, down 86,482 contracts or 27.3 percent. Over the same period, commercials reduced their net short by 172,847 contracts, 23.8 percent.

Partly. The Commitments of Traders report is a snapshot of positions held on Tuesday, in this case October 13. The WASDE was released Friday, October 9, so this snapshot is the first to contain trading that followed the report. It covers the Friday, Monday, and Tuesday sessions after the release but none of the trading from Wednesday through Friday of last week.

Soybeans, on the available data. Managed Money moved from the second-largest net long of the past 52 weeks to the seventh, so it has come off its extreme but remains near the top of its own range. Corn’s net long, by contrast, fell from fourth to fifteenth in the same period, which means the crowded corn long has been substantially dismantled while the soybean long has only been trimmed.

Because the two ends of the comparison are not the same kind of figure. Last week’s prices were quote-page last prices and this week’s are preliminary exchange settlements. Subtracting one from the other produces a number that looks like a weekly move but is not one. The changes shown are Friday against Thursday, and weekly changes resume once both ends are settlements of the same contract.

It marks a week-over-week change larger than 10 percent of the prior week’s net position, calculated as the absolute change divided by the absolute prior net. It measures a move’s size relative to where the position started. In smaller markets such as feeder cattle, or when a position starts near zero, as wheat did, modest contract changes can produce very large percentages, so read the contract figures alongside the percentage.

Our brokers farm and feed too, so the conversation starts with your operation rather than with a chart. Have your expected production or placements, what is already priced or hedged, and your storage or feeding costs handy.

Call (800) 944-3850 or (712) 545-0182.

Methodology: Positioning figures are taken from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission release for Tuesday, October 13, 2026. Week-over-week changes and percentages are our calculations, computed as the absolute change divided by the absolute prior net position. Four-week totals compare October 13 against September 22. Exact October 13 contract counts for soybeans were not available at publication; that row is rounded to the nearest thousand and labeled approximate, and its flag status was tested across the full range the rounding allows. Open interest was not available for this edition and is not shown. 52-week ranks were available for corn and soybeans only and are omitted elsewhere; rank 1 is the largest net long of the past 52 weeks and rank 52 the smallest, an Ag Optimus calculation rather than a published figure. Futures prices are preliminary settlements from the CME bulletin for October 16, 2026, and the changes shown are Friday against Thursday; no weekly change is shown because the prior week’s figures were quote-page last prices rather than settlements. Cash cattle prices, livestock index values and wholesale meat values are separately identified and are not futures settlements.

Disclosure: This material is for general educational and informational purposes only. It is the opinion of Ag Optimus where marked, and it is not a recommendation to buy or sell any futures contract, option, cash contract, or other financial product, nor individualized marketing, hedging, tax, or legal advice. Trading futures, options and swaps involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors; losses can exceed funds deposited. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. USDA does not endorse, certify or approve this analysis, Ag Optimus, or Optimus Futures LLC, and the use of USDA data here does not imply any such endorsement. Optimus Futures does not maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Rule 1.71. Ag Optimus is a registered DBA of Optimus Futures LLC [NFA ID 0481133]. All marketing and trading decisions remain yours.