The October WASDE actual vs. estimates comparison on every figure: corn carryout came in 172 million bushels above the survey average, and stocks-to-use jumped from 9.7 percent to 11.3 percent. Soybeans and wheat were ordinary. One figure in the entire report finished above the top of its estimate range.
- Corn got bigger in every direction. Yield 181.2 bushels per acre against a 177.6 survey average. Production: 16.034 billion bushels. Carryout 1.849 billion, up 282 million from September and 172 million above what the trade looked for.
- Demand was not the problem. USDA raised total corn use by 125 million bushels. Carryout still grew because supply rose 407 million bushels.
- Soybeans barely moved. Carryout was 315 million bushels, up 5 million. The season-average farm price held at $12.00. Stocks-to-use stayed near 6.9 percent, which is still tight.
- Wheat loosened at home on an export cut, not on a bigger crop. Exports down 25 million bushels, carryout up 23 million to 740 million.
- One figure broke out: world corn ending stocks at 280.44 million tonnes, above the survey’s highest estimate of 279.8 million. Everything else in the report landed inside its range.
This was a corn report, not a bearish report
It is tempting to read a 282-million-bushel carryout build as a broadly bearish release. The estimate ranges say something narrower. Each October figure can be placed inside the survey’s own low-to-high span, and when you do that the report separates cleanly by crop.
| Measure | October USDA | Survey range | Where it landed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corn yield | 181.2 | 173.2–182.1 | Upper tenth |
| Corn production | 16,034 | 15,344–16,115 | Upper tenth |
| Corn ending stocks | 1,849 | 1,522–1,895 | Upper eighth |
| Soybean yield | 53.1 | 51.4–54.1 | Middle, upper half |
| Soybean ending stocks | 315 | 245–358 | Middle, upper half |
| Wheat ending stocks | 740 | 701–750 | Upper fifth |
| World corn stocks | 280.44 | 272.0–279.8 | Above the top |
| World soybean stocks | 124.28 | 121.7–126.0 | Middle |
| World wheat stocks | 276.04 | 275.0–279.6 | Lower quarter, and below the average |
Ending stocks in million bushels for the United States, million tonnes for the world. Ranges are the Dow Jones survey of 15 analytic firms. We calculated the position within the range.
Three corn measures sat in the top tenth of what anyone surveyed expected. Soybeans sat in the middle. World wheat finished in the bottom quarter of its range and below the survey average. That is not a report that was bearish across the board. It was a report in which the corn number ran away, and the rest behaved.
The distinction matters for how you read the price response. A broadly bearish report pressures everything. A single-crop surprise tends to pressure that crop and leave the others to trade on their own fundamentals, which, in our view, is the more likely pattern here.
Stocks-to-use went from 9.7 percent to 11.3 percent in one month. USDA cut its own season-average farm price forecast to $4.70. If you are holding unpriced bushels waiting for a number well above that, you are now betting against the agency’s own forecast. Our view is that the practical question has shifted from when it will rally to whether the carry pays to wait, and that is a spread you can measure at your own elevator this week.
The relatively better story, by default rather than by strength. Carryout rose only 5 million bushels, stocks-to-use is near 6.9 percent, and USDA left the price forecast at $12.00. Nothing in this report argues for pricing beans more aggressively than corn.
Your class matters more than the all-wheat number this month. Hard red winter stocks rose 14 million bushels and hard red spring fell 8 million, because USDA attributed the export cut principally to those two classes. If you grow hard red winter, your own class got looser than the headline suggests.
Headline scorecard: October WASDE actual vs estimates
Expectations are Dow Jones survey averages and ranges as reproduced by DTN on October 7. They are not Ag Optimus forecasts.
| Measure | Sept USDA | Trade average | Oct USDA | Versus trade | Versus Sept |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corn yield, bushels per acre | 178.5 | 177.6 | 181.2 | +3.6 | +2.7 |
| Corn production, million bushels | 15,800 | 15,716 | 16,034 | +318 | +234 |
| Corn harvested acres, millions | 88.5 | 88.5 | 88.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Corn ending stocks, million bushels | 1,567 | 1,677 | 1,849 | +172 | +282 |
| Soybean yield, bushels per acre | 52.8 | 52.9 | 53.1 | +0.2 | +0.3 |
| Soybean production, million bushels | 4,535 | 4,541 | 4,562 | +21 | +27 |
| Soybean ending stocks, million bushels | 310 | 311 | 315 | +4 | +5 |
| Wheat ending stocks, million bushels | 717 | 722 | 740 | +18 | +23 |
| World corn stocks, million tonnes | 272.10 | 273.9 | 280.44 | +6.54 | +8.34 |
| World soybean stocks, million tonnes | 124.02 | 123.8 | 124.28 | +0.48 | +0.26 |
| World wheat stocks, million tonnes | 276.29 | 276.8 | 276.04 | −0.76 | −0.25 |
Versus trade is the October USDA estimate minus the survey average. Versus September is October minus September. Both are our calculations from the printed figures. The Dow Jones table carries no wheat production estimate, so no wheat production comparison is shown.
Corn: the full balance sheet
Million bushels, except acreage, yield, and price. The 2025/26 column is the revised old-crop estimate printed in the October release, not the figure published a month earlier.
| Line item | 2025/26 revised | Sept 2026/27 | Oct 2026/27 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Planted acres, millions | 98.7 | 96.8 | 96.8 | 0 |
| Harvested acres, millions | 90.9 | 88.5 | 88.5 | 0 |
| Yield, bushels per acre | 186.5 | 178.5 | 181.2 | +2.7 |
| Beginning stocks | 1,551 | 1,922 | 2,095 | +173 |
| Production | 16,964 | 15,800 | 16,034 | +234 |
| Imports | 31 | 25 | 25 | 0 |
| Total supply | 18,546 | 17,747 | 18,154 | +407 |
| Feed and residual | 6,119 | 5,950 | 6,000 | +50 |
| Food, seed and industrial | 6,903 | 6,955 | 7,005 | +50 |
| of which ethanol and by-products | 5,547 | 5,600 | 5,650 | +50 |
| Exports | 3,429 | 3,275 | 3,300 | +25 |
| Total use | 16,451 | 16,180 | 16,305 | +125 |
| Ending stocks | 2,095 | 1,567 | 1,849 | +282 |
| Stocks-to-use | 12.7% | 9.7% | 11.3% | +1.6 pts |
| Season-average farm price, dollars per bushel | 4.16 | 4.80 | 4.70 | −0.10 |
Ethanol is used in food, seed, and industrial applications. Do not add it again when totaling use. Stocks-to-use is ending stocks divided by total use; our calculation.
Where the corn change came from
| Component | Effect on carryout, million bushels |
|---|---|
| Higher beginning stocks, from the September 30 Grain Stocks report | +173 |
| Larger production, entirely from yield | +234 |
| Higher feed and residual use | −50 |
| Higher food, seed and industrial use | −50 |
| Higher exports | −25 |
| Net increase in carryout | +282 |
Two things are worth separating here. The 234-million-bushel production increase is this year’s crop. The 173-million-bushel beginning-stocks increase is last year’s crop, carried forward after the September 30 Grain Stocks count. Neither is a demand problem, and together they add more supply than the entire 125-million-bushel demand increase could absorb.
Stocks-to-use moved from 9.7 percent to 11.3 percent in a single month. Carryout in bushels is the figure quoted, but stocks-to-use scales with demand, and a 1.6-point move is a larger shift than the headline conveys. In our opinion, that is the figure to carry into your own pricing decisions, because it is the one that says how much cushion the balance sheet now has.
Soybeans: the full balance sheet
Million bushels except acreage, yield and price.
| Line item | 2025/26 revised | Sept 2026/27 | Oct 2026/27 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Planted acres, millions | 81.2 | 86.9 | 86.9 | 0 |
| Harvested acres, millions | 80.4 | 85.9 | 85.9 | 0 |
| Yield, bushels per acre | 53.0 | 52.8 | 53.1 | +0.3 |
| Beginning stocks | 325 | 325 | 315 | −10 |
| Production | 4,261 | 4,535 | 4,562 | +27 |
| Imports | 22 | 25 | 25 | 0 |
| Total supply | 4,608 | 4,885 | 4,902 | +17 |
| Crush | 2,646 | 2,780 | 2,780 | 0 |
| Exports | 1,515 | 1,685 | 1,695 | +10 |
| Seed | 75 | 73 | 73 | 0 |
| Residual | 57 | 38 | 39 | +1 |
| Total use | 4,293 | 4,575 | 4,587 | +12 |
| Ending stocks | 315 | 310 | 315 | +5 |
| Stocks-to-use | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.9% | +0.1 pt |
| Season-average farm price, dollars per bushel | 10.50 | 12.00 | 12.00 | 0 |
USDA notes that totals may not add due to rounding, and the soybean table shows that. The September use components sum to 4,576 against a printed total of 4,575. We use USDA’s printed total throughout, so the carryout bridge below uses the printed 12-million-bushel increase rather than the 11 million the individually rounded components give.
Where the soybean change came from
| Component | Effect on carryout, million bushels |
|---|---|
| Lower beginning stocks | −10 |
| Larger production | +27 |
| Higher total use, using USDA’s printed total | −12 |
| Net increase in carryout | +5 |
The product side, which the headline misses
- Soybean-oil ending stocks fall from 1.877 billion to 1.797 billion pounds. Projected biofuel use holds at 17.800 billion pounds.
- Soybean-meal domestic use rises to 44.100 million short tons from 44.000 million. Projected exports hold at 22.700 million short tons.
- USDA cut Indonesian palm-oil production by 2.2 million tonnes to 45 million, citing dry weather, and forecasts global palm-oil stocks at their lowest since 2017/18. That is vegetable-oil context rather than a soybean carryout story, but it is the kind of cross-market detail that can move soybean oil independently of the bean.
Wheat: looser at home on an export cut
Million bushels, except acreage, yield, and price. The crop did not grow meaningfully. The export line did the work.
| Line item | Sept 2026/27 | Oct 2026/27 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Planted acres, millions | 42.7 | 42.5 | −0.2 |
| Harvested acres, millions | 32.1 | 31.9 | −0.2 |
| Yield, bushels per acre | 47.8 | 48.1 | +0.3 |
| Beginning stocks | 920 | 920 | 0 |
| Production | 1,531 | 1,534 | +3 |
| Imports | 140 | 145 | +5 |
| Total supply | 2,591 | 2,599 | +8 |
| Food | 960 | 960 | 0 |
| Seed | 59 | 59 | 0 |
| Feed and residual | 80 | 90 | +10 |
| Domestic use | 1,099 | 1,109 | +10 |
| Exports | 775 | 750 | −25 |
| Total use | 1,874 | 1,859 | −15 |
| Ending stocks | 717 | 740 | +23 |
| Season-average farm price, dollars per bushel | 6.40 | 6.30 | −0.10 |
The bridge is straightforward: 8 million more supply, 10 million more domestic use, and 25 million fewer exports. Net, 23 million more carryout. Notice that the only genuinely negative line for a wheat grower is the export cut, and that the extra feed and residual use partly offsets it.
Wheat ending stocks by class, which is where this gets personal
| Class | September | October | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hard red winter | 319 | 333 | +14 |
| Hard red spring | 205 | 197 | −8 |
| Soft red winter | 99 | 105 | +6 |
| White | 68 | 80 | +12 |
| Durum | 26 | 24 | −2 |
| All wheat | 717 | 740 | +23 |
Class figures sum to 739 against the printed all-wheat total of 740 because of rounding. USDA attributes the export reduction principally to hard red winter and hard red spring sales and shipments, partly offset by higher white-wheat exports.
This is the part of the wheat report that a grower can actually use. The all-wheat number says plus 23 million. If you grow hard red spring, your class tightened by 8 million. If you grow hard red winter, yours loosened by 14 million, and the export cut USDA cites falls mainly on your class. Two growers reading the same headline have different situations.
What moved the world numbers
Million tonnes. The world corn build is the figure that broke its range, so it is worth seeing what sits underneath it.
| Item | September | October | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| European Union corn production | 50.60 | 48.00 | −2.60 |
| Argentine corn ending stocks | 4.01 | 5.01 | +1.00 |
| World corn stocks excluding China | 106.97 | 115.31 | +8.34 |
| Brazil soybean production | 186.00 | 186.00 | 0 |
| Argentina soybean production | 50.00 | 50.00 | 0 |
| China soybean imports | 115.00 | 115.00 | 0 |
| European Union wheat production | 133.80 | 133.00 | −0.80 |
| Canada wheat production | 36.00 | 36.50 | +0.50 |
| Russia wheat exports | 43.00 | 40.00 | −3.00 |
| Russia wheat ending stocks | 16.09 | 19.09 | +3.00 |
| World wheat stocks excluding China | 156.09 | 156.83 | +0.74 |
The whole world corn build sits outside China. Total world stocks rose 8.34 million tonnes and stocks excluding China rose 8.34 million tonnes. Exactly the same figure. That means the increase is in supply that can actually be traded, rather than in Chinese reserves that rarely reach the export market. For an exporter competing for business, that distinction matters.
World wheat moved in two directions at once. Total world wheat stocks fell 0.25 million tonnes while stocks excluding China rose 0.74 million. Those are different measures of different things, and a headline citing only one of them is incomplete. Russia is the swing: exports cut 3 million tonnes, stocks up the same 3 million.
The surprises, ranked
- World corn stocks exceeded the survey’s highest estimate. 280.44 million tonnes against a top end of 279.8. None of the 15 firms surveyed reported a number this high. It is the only figure in the report outside its range.
- Corn yield rose when the survey expected a decline. 181.2 bushels per acre, up from 177.6 expected and 178.5 in September. The direction, not just the size, was wrong-footed: analysts looked for USDA to trim, and USDA added 2.7 bushels.
- Corn carryout beat the average by 172 million bushels and production by 318 million, carrying stocks-to-use up 1.6 points in a single report.
- Soybeans produced more and carried over almost nothing extra. Production beat the average by 21 million bushels, but lower carry-in and higher use absorbed nearly all of it, holding the monthly carryout increase to 5 million.
- Wheat split between home and abroad. United States ending stocks came in 18 million bushels above average, while world stocks came in 0.76 million tonnes below average. Those point in opposite directions.
These differences are in their own units, ordered by how far each fell short of what the trade expected. They are not a statistical ranking of consequence. A larger bushel difference in corn is not automatically more consequential than a smaller difference in soybeans.
In August, the crop tour put corn at 15.344 billion bushels on a 173.2-bushel yield. September narrowed the gap to USDA. October blew it back open: at 16.034 billion on 181.2, USDA now sits 690 million bushels and 8 bushels per acre above the tour, wider than it was in August.
There is a detail here worth more than the gap itself. The tour’s 15.344 billion and 173.2 bushels are, to the decimal, the bottom end of the Dow Jones survey range. The tour did not merely come in low; it anchored the floor of what the trade was willing to consider. Whoever in that survey held the low estimate was holding the tour’s number, and USDA has now moved 690 million bushels away from it.
After the September 30 Grain Stocks report, we wrote that the 230-million-bushel shortfall against the trade estimate might lead USDA to trim feed and residual demand. It did the opposite, raising feed and residual use by 50 million bushels and total corn use by 125 million.
The error was a category confusion on our part, and it is worth naming because it will come up again. The Grain Stocks shortfall was an accounting question about the old marketing year, settled by the September 1 count. The feed and residual line in this report is a forecast for the new marketing year. A bigger crop at a lower price gives livestock feeders a reason to feed more corn, not less, so the new-crop feed number can rise even as the old-crop residual looks light. We read a backward-looking reconciliation as a forward-looking demand signal.
What to check on your own farm this week
None of the figures above are decisions. These are the four checks that turn them into one.
With carryout at 1.849 billion and stocks-to-use at 11.3 percent, the balance sheet has more cushion than it did a month ago. In a market with that much cushion, the question is usually not whether prices rally but whether the market pays you enough to wait.
Pull the December-to-July corn spread and compare it against what storage actually costs you. We ran this arithmetic on the Grain Stocks page, and the carry didn’t cover commercial storage. Run it again with today’s spread and your own rate, on your own bushels. If the carry doesn’t cover the cost, storing unpriced is a decision to speculate, not to market.
USDA cut the corn season-average farm price to $4.70 and wheat to $6.30, and held soybeans at $12.00. These are forecasts of the average price received across the whole marketing year, not predictions of a high.
Use them as a reality check on your own target. If your plan assumes a corn average meaningfully above $4.70, write down what has to happen for that to occur. Sometimes there is a good answer, such as a local basis that consistently runs strong, or a storage position that lets you sell into a particular window. Sometimes the answer is that the plan is hope. Either way it is better on paper than in your head.
The all-wheat figure is close to useless for a marketing decision. Hard red spring tightened 8 million bushels. Hard red winter loosened 14 million and absorbed most of the export cut. White wheat loosened 12 million but was the one class whose exports USDA raised. Find your class in the table above, and use that number rather than the headline when you talk to your buyer.
A looser national balance sheet and your local bid are two different things. Harvest movement, local storage availability and nearby processor demand can hold a basis firm while futures fall, or weaken it while futures hold.
Remember the arithmetic: your cash bid is futures plus basis, and basis is a signed number. A basis quoted as 40 under is a negative 40 cents, so a $4.40 December futures with a 40-under basis is a $4.00 cash bid. If you carry a futures hedge, the futures direction cancels out of your result and what you are left holding is the basis. That makes basis the variable worth watching this month, not the headline carryout.
Next checkpoints
- November 10, 2026, noon Eastern. The next World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, with another yield update as harvest completes.
- Weekly Crop Progress. Harvest pace is the near-term variable. A yield this far above expectations invites the question of whether it holds as combines finish.
- Weekly export sales. USDA raised corn exports 25 million bushels and cut wheat exports 25 million. Both are forecasts, and the weekly sales pace shows whether they hold.
- Commitments of Traders, each Friday. The Tuesday snapshot published Friday will show how managed money responded to this report. We deliberately make no positioning claim in this audit, because the dated data to support one is not yet in hand.
Our release-day summary on October 9 compared USDA against a pre-report worksheet whose originating survey is not identified. This audit instead uses the Dow Jones survey of 15 analytic firms as reproduced by DTN on October 7, because it is named, dated, and publicly checkable.
The two sets differ slightly, and you’ll see it if you read both pages. Against the worksheet, corn carryout beat expectations by 179 million bushels; against the Dow Jones survey, by 172 million. Corn yield beat by 3.5 bushels on one set and 3.6 on the other. The USDA figures are identical either way, so no conclusion changes, but they come from different surveys, and we do not blend them. The worksheet figures appear in their own table below so you can see both comparisons side by side.
Where the two disagree, this scorecard is our source of record for the October report. That choice is about provenance rather than arithmetic: you can check a named, dated, linked survey for yourself, but you can’t check an unattributed worksheet. Seven million bushels of difference between two survey averages is not a good enough reason to give that up.
Where a third survey is relevant, we label it as such rather than folding it in: Pro Farmer separately attributes a corn yield average of 177.8, in the same 173.2 to 182.1 range, to a Reuters poll. We have not used that figure in the tables above.
The alternate expectations set, kept separate
From the supplied worksheet. The originating survey and publication date are not identified, so we do not attribute these figures to any named provider.
| Measure | Worksheet average | Worksheet range | Oct USDA | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corn yield, bushels per acre | 177.7 | 173.2–182.1 | 181.2 | +3.5 |
| Corn production, million bushels | 15,721 | 15,344–16,115 | 16,034 | +313 |
| Corn ending stocks, million bushels | 1,670 | 1,518–1,895 | 1,849 | +179 |
| Soybean yield, bushels per acre | 52.8 | 51.4–54.1 | 53.1 | +0.3 |
| Soybean production, million bushels | 4,534 | 4,415–4,648 | 4,562 | +28 |
| Soybean ending stocks, million bushels | 305 | 245–358 | 315 | +10 |
| Wheat ending stocks, million bushels | 721 | 692–750 | 740 | +19 |
| World corn stocks, million tonnes | 273.78 | 269.90–279.82 | 280.44 | +6.66 |
| World soybean stocks, million tonnes | 123.33 | 120.30–125.00 | 124.28 | +0.95 |
| World wheat stocks, million tonnes | 276.63 | 274.60–279.60 | 276.04 | −0.59 |
The worksheet’s September world wheat figure appeared to carry a copy error, so this article uses September world wheat stocks directly from the report. Note that world corn stocks exceeded the top of the range on both survey sets, 279.8 on the Dow Jones set and 279.82 on the worksheet, so that finding does not depend on which set you use.
Frequently asked questions
USDA raised the 2026 corn yield to 181.2 bushels per acre from 178.5 in September, lifting production 234 million bushels to 16.034 billion. Combined with a 173-million-bushel increase in beginning stocks, total supply rose 407 million bushels. USDA raised total use 125 million bushels, so 2026/27 ending stocks rose 282 million to 1.849 billion. The season-average farm price forecast was cut 10 cents to $4.70 per bushel.
Because supply rose more than demand did. USDA increased feed and residual use by 50 million bushels, ethanol and by-products by 50 million, and exports by 25 million, for a total use increase of 125 million bushels. Supply rose 407 million bushels over the same month, from a 234-million-bushel production increase and a 173-million-bushel beginning-stocks increase. The 282-million-bushel carryout build is the difference between the two.
In our opinion, it was bearish for corn and close to neutral elsewhere. All three corn measures landed in the top tenth of their pre-report estimate ranges, while soybean figures landed mid-range and world wheat stocks came in below the survey average. One figure, world corn ending stocks at 280.44 million tonnes, finished above the top of its range. A single-crop surprise is not the same as a broadly bearish report, and the figures do not support calling this one bearish across the board.
Soybean yield rose 0.3 bushels per acre to 53.1 and production rose 27 million bushels to 4.562 billion. Beginning stocks fell 10 million bushels and USDA raised exports 10 million while leaving crush unchanged at 2.780 billion. Ending stocks rose only 5 million bushels to 315 million, and the season-average farm price forecast held at $12.00 per bushel. Stocks-to-use remained near 6.9 percent.
Mainly because USDA cut exports by 25 million bushels to 750 million, which it attributed principally to hard red winter and hard red spring sales and shipments, partly offset by higher white-wheat exports. Supply rose only 8 million bushels, and feed and residual use rose 10 million. The net effect was a 23-million-bushel increase in ending stocks to 740 million. The farm price forecast was cut 10 cents to $6.30.
The gap widened. The August crop tour estimated 15.344 billion bushels at a yield of 173.2 bushels. USDA’s October figures of 16.034 billion bushels and 181.2 bushels per acre put the agency 690 million bushels and 8 bushels per acre above the tour, a wider gap than the 669 million bushels and 8 bushels per acre in August. The tour’s figures also match the bottom of the Dow Jones survey range exactly.
Stocks-to-use is ending stocks divided by total use, and it measures how much cushion the balance sheet carries relative to demand. It rose from 9.7 percent in September to 11.3 percent in October. A higher figure generally means buyers have less urgency to bid up for supply. In our view, the practical consequence is that the storage decision deserves more attention than the price forecast: compare the futures carry between delivery months with what storage actually costs you, because in a well-supplied market carry, rather than a rally, often pays for waiting.
November 10, 2026, at noon Eastern time. It will include another corn and soybean yield update as the harvest winds down.
Our brokers farm and feed too, so the conversation starts with your crop rather than with a chart. Have your expected production, what is already priced, your storage capacity and cost, and your delivery commitments handy.
Call (800) 944-3850 or (712) 545-0182.
Sources
- October United States Department of Agriculture estimates and September comparisons. United States Department of Agriculture, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, WASDE-676, October 9, 2026. United States wheat appears on page 11, corn on page 12, and soybeans on page 15; world wheat stocks on page 19, world corn stocks on page 23, and world soybean stocks on page 28. Report landing page
- Yield, production and harvested acreage. United States Department of Agriculture, National Agricultural Statistics Service, Crop Production, October 9, 2026. esmis.nal.usda.gov
- The 173-million-bushel corn beginning-stocks revision. United States Department of Agriculture, National Agricultural Statistics Service, Quarterly Grain Stocks, September 30, 2026. esmis.nal.usda.gov
- Primary pre-report trade averages and ranges. Dow Jones survey of 15 analytic firms, reproduced by DTN, “United States Harvests Delayed, USDA to Gauge Crop Sizes,” October 7, 2026, 9:38 a.m. Central. dtnpf.com
- Separately labeled Reuters corn yield comparison, not used in the primary tables. Pro Farmer, “October WASDE preview: key metrics to watch for corn, soybeans, wheat and cotton,” October 7, 2026; the page byline displays October 9. profarmer.com
Methodology: Trade expectations in the primary tables are Dow Jones pre-report survey averages and ranges as reproduced by DTN on October 7, 2026, not Ag Optimus forecasts. USDA figures are from WASDE-676, released October 9, 2026, and the accompanying Crop Production release. “Versus trade” is the October USDA estimate minus the survey average; “versus September” is October minus September. We calculate position within the estimate range, stocks-to-use, and the carryout bridges from USDA’s printed figures, which may contain rounding differences; where components and printed totals disagree, we use the printed total and note it. “Actual” means the October USDA estimate, not a final harvest result, and these figures remain subject to revision. No futures price reaction, post-report positioning data or local basis figure is included in this audit, because dated data to support such claims was not in hand at publication.
Disclosure: This material is for general educational and informational purposes only. It is the opinion of Ag Optimus where marked, and it is not a recommendation to buy or sell any futures contract, option, cash contract, or other financial product, nor individualized marketing, hedging, tax, or legal advice. Trading futures, options and swaps involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors; losses can exceed funds deposited. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. USDA does not endorse, certify, or approve this analysis, Ag Optimus, or Optimus Futures LLC, and the use of USDA data here does not imply any such endorsement. Optimus Futures does not maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Rule 1.71. Ag Optimus is a registered DBA of Optimus Futures LLC [NFA ID 0481133]. All marketing and trading decisions remain yours.
