USDA raised the corn yield to 181.2 bushels per acre—up 2.7 from September, versus the pre-report trade average of 177.7 in your supplied spreadsheet—and increased 2026/27 U.S. ending stocks by 282 million bushels, from 1.567 billion to 1.849 billion. Soybean ending stocks rose 5 million bushels to 315 million, while wheat ending stocks increased 23 million to 740 million. World corn ending stocks reached 280.44 million metric tonnes, above the 279.82 million-tonne upper end of the pre-report range in your spreadsheet
World corn ending stocks came in at 280.44 million tonnes, above a pre-report range that topped out at 279.82. Every other figure in this report — U.S. yields, production, all three ending-stocks lines, world soybeans, world wheat — landed inside its range.
Most landed near the top, which is worth noting. The trade was positioned for a smaller crop and a tighter balance sheet, and got neither.
Corn
| Measure | September | Trade est. | October | vs. trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yield, bu/acre | 178.5 | 177.7 | 181.2 | +3.5 |
| Production, bil bu | 15.800 | 15.721 | 16.034 | +313 mil |
| Ending stocks, mil bu | 1,567 | 1,670 | 1,849 | +179 |
| World stocks, mmt | 272.10 | 273.78 | 280.44 | +6.66 |
| Farm price, $/bu | $4.80 | — | $4.70 | −10¢ |
Where the 282 million bushels came from
| Bigger crop — yield up 2.7 bushels, acres unchanged at 88.5 million | +234 |
| Bigger carry-in — the September 30 Grain Stocks count | +173 |
| Feed and residual use | −50 |
| Ethanol and by-products | −50 |
| Exports | −25 |
| Net change in ending stocks | +282 |
Read the demand lines before reaching a conclusion. USDA raised corn use by 125 million bushels — feed, ethanol, and exports all up. The carryout still grew by 282 million because supply grew by 407. This is a bigger-crop report, not a weaker-demand one, and a $4.70 farm price forecast is the lower corn that USDA expects to pull that extra demand through.
Soybeans and wheat moved far less
| Measure | September | Trade est. | October | vs. trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soybean yield | 52.8 | 52.8 | 53.1 | +0.3 |
| Soybean production, bil bu | 4.535 | 4.534 | 4.562 | +28 mil |
| Soybean ending stocks, mil bu | 310 | 305 | 315 | +10 |
| Wheat ending stocks, mil bu | 717 | 721 | 740 | +19 |
| World wheat stocks, mmt | 276.29 | 276.63 | 276.04 | −0.59 |
We have tracked this since August. The crop tour put the corn crop at 15.344 billion bushels on 173.2 bushels per acre, versus USDA’s 16.013 billion on 180.7—a 669-million-bushel gap. September narrowed it to 456 million.
October blew it back open. At 16.034 billion on 181.2, USDA is now 690 million bushels and 8 bushels per acre above the tour — wider than it was in August. Also note that the tour’s numbers sat at the bottom of this month’s estimate range, which suggests someone in the survey was still taking them seriously.
Nine days ago we worked through the arithmetic of the September 30 stocks count: production revised down 57 million, while stocks came in 173 million above the balance sheet, meaning 2025/26 use had fallen roughly 230 million bushels short. We said feed and residual was where that shortfall lived, and that USDA might have to cut new-crop feed demand on October 9.
USDA raised it by 50 million instead.
The arithmetic was right, and the prediction was wrong, and the reason is worth understanding. The 230-million shortfall was about the old marketing year, and USDA settled that with the stocks revision itself. For the new year, it then faced a crop 234 million bushels larger and cut its own price forecast to $4.70 — cheaper corn pulls more feeding, not less. Two different marketing years, two different answers. We would rather show that than quietly drop it.
What this means for the next few weeks
For unpriced corn, the supply question that has hung over the market since August is now largely answered, and it was answered against the bulls. A 1.849-billion-bushel carryout is 282 million more than USDA carried a month ago and 179 million more than the trade expected. What has not been answered is demand — USDA has penciled in 125 million bushels more use at a 10-cent lower price, and whether that materializes shows up in weekly export sales and ethanol grind rather than in another monthly report.
For wheat, the export cut is the thing. Twenty-five million bushels off the program with world stocks essentially flat means the U.S. is losing business rather than the world getting longer.
For soybeans, almost nothing changed, which is itself worth knowing. Ending stocks moved 5 million bushels and the price forecast held at $12.00. The bean story remains a demand story, and it still centers on shipments rather than forecasts.
This is a first read on the numbers. Once market reaction and analyst commentary are in, we will publish the complete scorecard with the full balance sheets, the price response, and the state-level detail.
If you are weighing a decision before then, have your expected production, what is already priced, your storage capacity and your delivery commitments handy and call us at (800) 944-3850.
Sources
- October United States Department of Agriculture estimates and September comparisons. United States Department of Agriculture, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, WASDE-676, October 9, 2026. United States wheat appears on page 11, corn on page 12 and soybeans on page 15; world wheat stocks on page 19, world corn stocks on page 23 and world soybean stocks on page 28. Report landing page
- Yield and production estimates. United States Department of Agriculture, National Agricultural Statistics Service, Crop Production, October 9, 2026. esmis.nal.usda.gov
- The 173-million-bushel carry-in revision. United States Department of Agriculture, National Agricultural Statistics Service, Quarterly Grain Stocks, September 30, 2026. esmis.nal.usda.gov
- Pre-report trade averages and estimate ranges.
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