Read the timing gap. The COT numbers below are a snapshot of positioning as of the close on Tuesday, September 8, published the following Friday. The market commentary reflects trade since then. When the two disagree, positioning has likely already shifted.
Why we lead with Managed Money. Managed Money is the speculative money — funds and large traders positioning for a price move, not hedging a physical crop. When they crowd to one side, the market gets stretched, and stretched markets move hard when they turn. Commercials tell you where the grain is. Managed Money tells you where the risk is.
Positioning below was recorded Tuesday, September 8. USDA released Crop Production and WASDE on Friday, September 11. Everything in these tables describes where the money stood before the report that moved the week.
What it shows is worth the read. Corn and wheat funds stepped back before the release. Soybean funds kept buying right into it. Then every headline number landed on the bearish side of consensus — and beans, the one market where specs were still adding, fell 35¾ cents on Friday alone.
Contract note: we have moved the grain markets to new-crop contracts this week — December corn, November soybeans and December Chicago wheat. Last week’s page quoted the September months. The two are not comparable: December corn closed the week at $5.30¼ and September corn was $5.12 a week earlier, but December corn was down 6½ cents over the same stretch. Every weekly change below compares the same contract on both Fridays.
Our full breakdown of Friday’s release — every USDA figure against the pre-report trade estimate — is in the September 2026 WASDE scorecard. All six headline numbers came in above consensus. Next up: Grain Stocks on September 30, then October WASDE and Crop Production on October 9. Cattle on Feed returns September 18. For the background on why a report landing on one-sided positioning behaves differently, see crowded positioning and scheduled reports.
Grains Sold the Report. Cattle Had a Week of Their Own.
USDA cut the corn yield to 178.5 bushels per acre from 180.7 and trimmed production 213 million bushels to 15.800 billion — a genuine supply reduction. But it also cut feed and residual use by 150 million bushels, so carryout finished at 1.567 billion — 34 million above the 1.533-billion DTN/Dow Jones trade estimate. Soybeans went the other way entirely: yield up to 52.8 when the trade looked for a cut, production to a record 4.535 billion, and carryout at 310 million against 290 million from DTN/Dow Jones and 298 million from Reuters. U.S. wheat was left alone, while world wheat stocks climbed to 276.3 million tonnes, about three million above August.
All three grains sold off Friday. Beans took the worst of it at 35¾ cents, wheat 16 cents, corn 3½.
Cattle ran the opposite direction and did not much care about the grain room. October live cattle gained $6.725 on the week, with Southern live trade reaching $225 by Friday, with late bids at $226; Northern $223–$225 live and $350–$355 dressed. Watch whether cash can hold at $225 or better. November feeders added $13.45, the strongest weekly move in the six markets, with auction values up in the $10 to $20 range at some barns. USDA also trimmed its 2026 and 2027 beef production outlooks. Lean hogs were the lone livestock market lower, off 77½ cents, with the USDA afternoon pork cutout at $89.80 Friday, down $3.06 on the week.
What it means for the producer: The corn report was not a bullish supply shock and it was not a collapse — the crop got smaller and the demand assumption got smaller with it. What matters now is whether your combine agrees with 178.5, and whether local basis responds to the smaller crop or to the larger-than-expected carryout. Those can pull in opposite directions. On the cattle side, a $13 week in feeders is worth having, but the number that pays you is the net bid on the cattle you own — weight, sex, health program, lot size, freight and shrink all sit between the board and your check.
Corn CFTC 002602
The week: December corn (CZ26) settled Friday at $5.30¼, down 3½ cents on the day and 6½ cents on the week from $5.36¾. USDA cut yield by 2.2 bushels and production by 213 million, then cut feed and residual by 150 million, leaving carryout at 1.567 billion against the 1.533-billion trade estimate. The season-average farm price forecast went up 30 cents to $4.80.
Both sides eased off before the report. Managed Money sold 5,891 contracts to 425,171 — the first reduction after three consecutive weeks of buying that took the position from 166,770 to 431,062. Commercials covered 20,624 to 744,110 short, also their first step back. Neither move was large, and neither changed the picture much: this is still a near-record fund long sitting across from a near-record commercial short. But after three weeks of both sides pressing, the pause is the news.
| Tuesday | Commercials net | WoW Δ | Managed Money net | WoW Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18 | -540,774 | — | +250,505 | — |
| Aug 25 | -677,164 | -136,390 ‡ | +376,513 | +126,008 ‡ |
| Sep 1 | -764,734 | -87,570 ‡ | +431,062 | +54,549 ‡ |
| Sep 8 | -744,110 | +20,624 | +425,171 | -5,891 |
WoW Δ = the change in the net position from the prior week (week over week). ‡ marks a swing greater than 10% of the prior week’s net.
The scorecard, honestly. Last week this page said the risk was what a 431,000-contract long does on a disappointing number. The number disappointed — carryout came in above consensus on a day when all six headline figures did — and December corn lost six and a half cents. That is a soft landing, not the air pocket a crowded long can produce, and we would rather note that than pretend otherwise. Two reasons it may not have been worse: the funds had already trimmed before the release, and the yield cut was real even if the balance sheet read loose. The position is still enormous, September 30 Grain Stocks is next on the calendar, and the argument for having tiers resting above the market has not changed.
Soybeans CFTC 005602
The week: November soybeans (SX26) settled Friday at $12.96½, down 35¾ cents on the day but only 13¼ on the week from $13.09¾ — the market had rallied into the release and gave most of it back in one session. USDA raised yield to 52.8 when the trade expected 52.5, lifted production to a record 4.535 billion bushels, and put carryout at 310 million against 290 million from DTN/Dow Jones and 298 million from Reuters. Exports were raised by 25 million bushels, from 1.660 billion to 1.685 billion, and it was not enough.
Four straight weeks of buying, right up to the door. Managed Money added 24,848 contracts to 266,031 — the fourth consecutive week of accumulation and the largest fund long of the run. Commercials added 3,477 shorts to 327,337, essentially flat after three weeks of heavy hedging. Read the two grain tables side by side: corn funds trimmed before the report and beans funds kept buying. Friday’s price action separated them by 32 cents.
| Tuesday | Commercials net | WoW Δ | Managed Money net | WoW Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18 | -241,011 | — | +151,662 | — |
| Aug 25 | -275,497 | -34,486 ‡ | +198,254 | +46,592 ‡ |
| Sep 1 | -323,860 | -48,363 ‡ | +241,183 | +42,929 ‡ |
| Sep 8 | -327,337 | -3,477 | +266,031 | +24,848 ‡ |
WoW Δ = the change in the net position from the prior week (week over week). ‡ marks a swing greater than 10% of the prior week’s net.
What it means for the producer: This is the cleanest illustration this page has printed of what crowded positioning does. The funds were at their largest long of the year and still adding on Tuesday. Friday the report said the crop was bigger than anyone expected, and the market that had the most length to defend fell hardest — 35¾ cents in a session, against 3½ in corn. Note what did not happen: demand was not the problem. USDA raised exports 25 million bushels, to 1.685 billion. The problem was that production beat it. For unpriced beans, the useful questions now are whether your yields track 52.8, whether export shipments justify the higher forecast, and what Brazilian planting does to the competing crop. Our guide to Brazil and your soybean bid covers that last one.
Wheat CFTC 001602 · CHICAGO SRW
The week: December Chicago wheat (ZWZ26) settled Friday at $7.25¼, down 16 cents on the day and 8¾ on the week from $7.34. USDA left the U.S. balance sheet alone — yield 47.8, production 1.531 billion bushels, carryout 717 million. The world number was the problem: global ending stocks rose to 276.3 million tonnes, about three million above August and roughly three above the trade estimate.
They gave back 71% of the long in one week. Managed Money sold 10,392 contracts to 4,262, nearly reversing the flip to net long that happened a week earlier. Commercials went the other way for the first time in a month, covering 18,487 to 78,214 short. This is the fastest round trip on the page: 31,401 short on August 11, 14,654 long on September 1, and back to barely long by September 8.
| Tuesday | Commercials net | WoW Δ | Managed Money net | WoW Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18 | -61,729 | — | -26,485 | — |
| Aug 25 | -67,555 | -5,826 | -14,171 | +12,314 ‡ |
| Sep 1 | -96,701 | -29,146 ‡ | +14,654 | +28,825 ‡ |
| Sep 8 | -78,214 | +18,487 ‡ | +4,262 | -10,392 ‡ |
WoW Δ = the change in the net position from the prior week (week over week). ‡ marks a swing greater than 10% of the prior week’s net.
The scorecard. Last week we flagged that the funds had flipped to their most bullish wheat position of the year on September 1, and that the board then fell 51 cents in the days that followed. They did not sit with it. Seven days later, 71% of that long was gone. That is what a spec position looks like when the trade goes against it quickly, and it’s why this page keeps saying a positioning reading describes a moment rather than a direction. The durable fact underneath is unchanged: commercials have been short all month and are still short 78,214 even after covering. Wheat rallies keep meeting the same wall.
Live Cattle CFTC 057642
The week: October live cattle (LEV26) settled Friday at $219.675, up $1.85 on the day and $6.725 on the week from $212.95. Southern live trade reached $225 by Friday, with late bids at $226; Northern $223–$225 live and $350–$355 dressed. USDA reduced its 2026 and 2027 beef production forecasts, reinforcing the tight-supply story.
Six weeks of specs leaving, and the rally came anyway. Managed Money trimmed another 664 to 47,250 — an eleventh consecutive week of selling that has taken the fund long from 66,523 in late July down to 47,250, the smallest fund long of 2026. Commercials covered 2,393 to 94,252 short, a fourth straight week of lifting hedges and their least-hedged posture of the run. Note the sequence: the physical trade has been buying back hedges the whole way down and through this rally. Specs have been leaving the whole time.
| Tuesday | Commercials net | WoW Δ | Managed Money net | WoW Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18 | -109,020 | — | +61,514 | — |
| Aug 25 | -105,470 | +3,550 | +57,441 | -4,073 |
| Sep 1 | -96,645 | +8,825 | +47,914 | -9,527 ‡ |
| Sep 8 | -94,252 | +2,393 | +47,250 | -664 |
WoW Δ = the change in the net position from the prior week (week over week). ‡ marks a swing greater than 10% of the prior week’s net.
What it means for the producer: A $6.72 week with the funds not buying it is worth sitting with. The move came from cash and from supply — Southern trade at $225–$226 and a USDA production cut — rather than from speculative demand. In our view, that is a healthier kind of rally than one built on fund leverage, because no crowded position has to be unwound later. It also means the board is unlikely to run much further on positioning alone. Watch whether cash can hold near $224, what boxed beef does, and where packer margins sit. For fall marketing, this is a better board than a week ago, and the question is whether your plan had a number in this range.
Feeder Cattle CFTC 061641
The week: November feeders (FCX26) settled Friday at $328.175, up $5.40 on the day and $13.45 on the week from $314.725 — the strongest move in the six markets and a substantial recovery from the late-August break. It was not confined to the board: auction values were reported up roughly $10 to $20 at some northern and southern barns.
Both columns sold into the best week of the season. Managed Money trimmed 727 contracts to 6,781. Commercials added 721 shorts to 2,568 — a second consecutive week of rebuilding hedges after getting to nearly flat in late August. Put plainly: the board gained $13.45 and neither the funds nor the physical trade bought it. Cattle owners used $328 as a place to sell.
A note on the percentages in this market. Feeder cattle nets are small — a few thousand contracts against hundreds of thousands in corn — so week-over-week percentage swings look enormous when the prior week’s net sat near zero. The 402% figure from September 1 is arithmetic on a base of 368 contracts, not a violent repositioning. Read the contract counts, not the percentages.
| Tuesday | Commercials net | WoW Δ | Managed Money net | WoW Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18 | -3,083 | — | +7,498 | — |
| Aug 25 | -368 | +2,715 ‡ | +5,714 | -1,784 ‡ |
| Sep 1 | -1,847 | -1,479 ‡ | +7,508 | +1,794 ‡ |
| Sep 8 | -2,568 | -721 ‡ | +6,781 | -727 |
WoW Δ = the change in the net position from the prior week (week over week). ‡ marks a swing greater than 10% of the prior week’s net.
What it means for the producer: For cow-calf operators, this was the most constructive week of the season, and the usable number is still the net bid for the cattle you actually have — weight, sex, health program, lot size, location, freight, shrink, and delivery timing all sit between $328 and your check. The table also shows who was selling into it. Commercials have now rebuilt hedges two weeks running, from nearly flat at 368 contracts back out to 2,568. That is the same behavior we flagged a fortnight ago: the physical trade treats these bounces as pricing opportunities rather than the start of something. For feedyards, a higher feeder board is not automatically a better placement — corn at $5.30 is still the cost side, and the closeout runs the same way it always has: expected fed-cattle revenue, less feeder purchase cost, less feed, yardage, interest, and health.
Lean Hogs CFTC 054642
The week: October hogs (HEV26) settled Friday at $81.525, down $1.625 on the day and 77½ cents on the week from $82.30 — the only livestock market lower. The USDA afternoon pork carcass cutout settled at $89.80 on Friday, down $2.01 on the day and $3.06 from the prior Friday’s $92.86, with fresh-pork profitability a recurring concern in trade commentary.
Two weeks of covering, 7,579 contracts bought back. Managed Money reduced its short by 4,767 to 23,556 — a second consecutive week of covering after the position peaked at 31,135 on August 25. Commercials moved the opposite way, and in size: 3,848 fresh shorts to 41,950, their largest short in this window and a swing past the 10% mark. So the funds have been buying and the physical trade has been selling, and the board lost ground through both.
| Tuesday | Commercials net | WoW Δ | Managed Money net | WoW Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18 | -38,753 | — | -23,486 | — |
| Aug 25 | -35,008 | +3,745 | -31,135 | -7,649 ‡ |
| Sep 1 | -38,102 | -3,094 | -28,323 | +2,812 |
| Sep 8 | -41,950 | -3,848 ‡ | -23,556 | +4,767 ‡ |
WoW Δ = the change in the net position from the prior week (week over week). ‡ marks a swing greater than 10% of the prior week’s net.
The scorecard is instructive. Three weeks ago this page wrote that 31,135 contracts of shorts have to buy eventually, and that they will not do it slowly. They have now bought back 7,579 of them across two weeks — roughly a quarter of the position — and October hogs are lower than when the covering started. That is worth understanding rather than explaining away: short covering does not manufacture a rally on its own. It removes selling pressure, which matters, but the price still needs a buyer with a reason, and the cash side did not supply one. The cutout at $89.80 and soft fresh-pork margins are the reason that’s missing. Meanwhile, commercials added 3,848 shorts, which is the physical trade saying the same thing. The plan is unchanged: orders resting through the $80–$85 range, floors priced while the board holds above $80. What has changed is that the squeeze fuel is a quarter smaller than it was.
The bigger picture
For six weeks, this page tracked funds building the most one-sided grain position of the year while producers hedged against them in record size. This week the report arrived, and the tables show what the money did in the three days before it.
Corn funds trimmed. Wheat funds dumped 71% of a long they had just built. Soybean funds kept buying. Then USDA printed six headline numbers above consensus, and the market that had kept buying fell 35¾ cents in a session while corn lost three and a half. That is not proof of anything — one report is one report, and positioning does not forecast prices. But it is a clean picture of what it means to walk into a known date with length you still have to defend.
The corn outcome deserves its own note, because it cuts the other way. A 425,000-contract long met a disappointing carryout and the market lost six and a half cents. Crowded positioning raises the range of what can happen; it does not schedule a crash.
Cattle ran a separate experiment and got the cleanest answer on the page. Live cattle gained $6.72 and feeders $13.45 with managed money selling in both. That rally came from cash and from supply, not from speculative demand. In our opinion, a move built that way has less to give back than one built on fund length. But note the split between the two cattle markets: live cattle commercials covered hedges for a fifth straight week, while feeder commercials rebuilt theirs for a second. The physical trade is comfortable owning fed cattle at these prices and is using $328 feeders to sell.
Hogs delivered the week’s plainest lesson. Funds have bought back roughly a quarter of the short they built in August, and the board is lower than when they started. Short covering removes selling pressure; it does not create a buyer. The cash side has to supply that, and it has not.
Positioning describes the market; it does not predict it. Next on the calendar is Cattle on Feed on September 18, then Grain Stocks on September 30. Both are known dates, and the argument has not changed: decide your numbers before them, not during.
None of this prices your grain or sells your cattle — your breakeven, your basis, and your own marketing plan do.
Positioning data is from the CFTC Disaggregated Commitments of Traders report, futures and options combined, for the week ended Tuesday, September 8, 2026. Commercials are Producer/Merchant net; Non-Commercials are Managed Money net. Weekly price change equals the Friday, September 11 settlement less the Friday, September 4 settlement for the same named contract; contracts are not substituted across months. Market commentary reflects publicly reported trade and is drawn from public industry sources; verify all price levels against your own quote provider. USDA does not endorse, certify, or approve this analysis, Ag Optimus, or Optimus Futures LLC, and the use of USDA data here does not imply any such endorsement. This material is provided for general information and is the opinion of Ag Optimus; it should not be construed as a solicitation or as a recommendation to buy or sell any futures or options contract. Trading futures, options, and swaps involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Optimus Futures does not maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Rule 1.71. Ag Optimus is a registered DBA of Optimus Futures LLC [NFA ID 0481133]. All trading decisions remain yours.
