Read the timing gap. The COT numbers below are a snapshot of positioning as of the close on Tuesday, September 15, published the following Friday. The market commentary reflects trade since then. When the two disagree, positioning has likely already shifted.
Why we lead with Managed Money. Managed Money is the speculative money — funds and large traders positioning for a price move, not hedging a physical crop. When they crowd to one side, the market gets stretched, and stretched markets move hard when they turn. Commercials tell you where the grain is. Managed Money tells you where the risk is.
How to read the 52-week rank. We show it in every market this week. On our scale, rank 1 is the largest net long of the past 52 weeks and rank 52 is the smallest. So a fund rank of 1 means specs are as long as they have been all year; a rank of 52 means the opposite. For commercials — who are usually net short — a rank of 1 means the least hedged they have been all year. The CFTC does not publish a rank; it is a calculation, and other providers run the scale in different directions.
In the grain room, funds sit at rank 1 or 2 in corn and soybeans — as long as they have been in a year — while commercials sit at or near rank 52, their most hedged of the year.
In cattle, it runs exactly backward. Commercials are at rank 1 or 2 in live cattle and 1 to 5 in feeders, their least hedged of the year. Funds are at rank 52 in live cattle and 49 to 52 in feeders, their most defensive. Two rooms, opposite corners, same two groups.
Friday brought Cattle on Feed after the close, so the market could not trade it. Next on the calendar is Grain Stocks on September 30, then October WASDE and Crop Production on October 9. Our September WASDE scorecard includes the full report breakdown, and our Cattle on Feed guide explains why a placement number is graded against expectations rather than last year.
Placements Came In Far Below Expectations — After the Bell
USDA reported 11.2 million head on feed as of September 1 in lots of 1,000 head or more, up 1% from a year ago and close to what the trade expected. The headline was underneath it.
August placements totaled 1.62 million head, down 9% from last year. Analysts had looked for placements around 97.3% of year-ago; USDA printed 91%. That is a wide miss on the number that determines how many cattle reach the market next spring. August marketings came in at 1.52 million head, down 3% and the lowest August marketing total in the series since it began in 1996.
It landed after Friday’s close. October live cattle finished up 27 cents on the day but down $3.75 on the week, so the market spent five sessions selling and then received a friendly supply number it could not act on until Monday.
What it means for the producer: A second consecutive month of sharply low placements — July was down 11% and also a series low — is a real statement about cattle flow, not a one-month timing quirk. Fewer cattle going in now means fewer coming out later. It does not set a price for the calves you are selling this fall; corn cost, financing, feedlot margins, and your local bid still do that. The useful question after a report like this is whether your marketing plan has a number for a stronger deferred market, because that is the part of the curve a placement shortfall speaks to.
Corn CFTC 002602
The week: December corn (CZ26) settled Friday at $5.27½, down 3 cents on the day and 2¾ cents on the week from $5.30¼. Harvest pressure held the market down through the week following the September reports.
Two extremes, and a second week of almost nothing happening. Managed Money added 1,671 contracts to 426,842 — a 0.4% change. Commercials covered 16,993 to 727,117 short, a 2.3% change. Both columns have now been essentially flat for two straight weeks after the enormous build through September 1. The positions themselves remain at the edges: funds at rank 1 to 2 for the year, commercials at rank 52. Nobody is adding, and nobody is leaving.
| Tuesday | Commercials net | WoW Δ | Managed Money net | WoW Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25 | -677,164 | — | +376,513 | — |
| Sep 1 | -764,734 | -87,570 ‡ | +431,062 | +54,549 ‡ |
| Sep 8 | -744,110 | +20,624 | +425,171 | -5,891 |
| Sep 15 | -727,117 | +16,993 | +426,842 | +1,671 |
WoW Δ = the change in the net position from the prior week (week over week). ‡ marks a swing greater than 10% of the prior week’s net.
What it means for the producer: Three weeks ago, this page noted that funds bought 54,549 contracts and the market went nowhere, and suggested that when fresh buying stops moving price, the position becomes weight rather than fuel. Since then the funds have stopped buying altogether, and the market has drifted lower — six and a half cents, then two and three-quarters. That is what a stalled position looks like. Grain Stocks on September 30 is the next thing that can move it, and a 426,000-contract long will still be sitting there when it lands. Meanwhile, your combine is producing the number that actually matters. Check your yields against 178.5, and watch harvest basis, elevator space, and drying cost as hard as you watch the board.
Soybeans CFTC 005602
The week: November soybeans (SX26) settled Friday at $13.03½, down 16¼ cents on the day but up 7 cents on the week from $12.96½ — the only grain market higher. Demand optimism earlier in the week, including attention to Chinese buying, carried it, and Friday gave part of it back.
The first genuine two-way unwind in a month. Managed Money sold 21,321 contracts to 244,710 — the first reduction after four consecutive weeks of buying that ran the long from 151,662 to 266,031. Commercials covered 34,687, a 10.6% move that brought the short back to 292,650 from 327,337. Both sides eased at once. Note what that did to the price: beans were the only grain to finish higher on the week.
| Tuesday | Commercials net | WoW Δ | Managed Money net | WoW Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25 | -275,497 | — | +198,254 | — |
| Sep 1 | -323,860 | -48,363 ‡ | +241,183 | +42,929 ‡ |
| Sep 8 | -327,337 | -3,477 | +266,031 | +24,848 ‡ |
| Sep 15 | -292,650 | +34,687 ‡ | +244,710 | -21,321 |
WoW Δ = the change in the net position from the prior week (week over week). ‡ marks a swing greater than 10% of the prior week’s net.
What it means for the producer: Last week beans fell 35¾ cents in a session because the funds walked into the WASDE with the largest long of the year still on. They have now sold 21,321 of it and your peers have bought back 34,687 of their hedges. That is a healthier-looking book than a week ago, and the market finished higher on the week — but specs are still ranked 1 to 2, meaning the position is smaller and still extreme. For unpriced beans, the questions have not changed: do your yields track 52.8, do export shipments justify the higher forecast, and what does Brazilian planting do to the competing crop? Our guide to Brazil and your soybean bid covers the last one.
Wheat CFTC 001602 · CHICAGO SRW
The week: December Chicago wheat (ZWZ26) settled Friday at $7.14¼, down 12¾ cents on the day and 11 cents on the week from $7.25¼. USDA left the U.S. balance sheet alone in September — carryout still 717 million bushels — while world ending stocks rose to 276.3 million tonnes, keeping export competition at the center of the story.
Short, then long, then short again — a complete round trip. On August 11, Managed Money was 31,401 contracts net short. By September 1, it was 14,654 net long and ranked 1, the most bullish reading of the year. Two weeks later it is 4,706 net short again. The entire move built and unwound inside five weeks. Commercials covered 10,033 to 68,181 short, a second consecutive week of lifting hedges after hitting rank 52 on September 1.
| Tuesday | Commercials net | WoW Δ | Managed Money net | WoW Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25 | -67,555 | — | -14,171 | — |
| Sep 1 | -96,701 | -29,146 ‡ | +14,654 | +28,825 ‡ |
| Sep 8 | -78,214 | +18,487 ‡ | +4,262 | -10,392 ‡ |
| Sep 15 | -68,181 | +10,033 ‡ | -4,706 | -8,968 ‡ |
WoW Δ = the change in the net position from the prior week (week over week). ‡ marks a swing greater than 10% of the prior week’s net.
The scorecard. Two weeks ago this page said a spec position that gets caught moves fast, and that 71% of the wheat long had already gone. The rest went this week. A fund that was at its most bullish reading of the year on September 1 is net short again by September 15, and the board has lost 62¾ cents across those two weeks. That is the clearest thing positioning data ever shows a producer: a rank 1 reading described a moment, not a direction, and anyone who read it as a forecast paid for it. What has held all along is the commercial column — short every week of this, and still short 68,181 after two weeks of covering. Wheat rallies keep meeting the same wall, and old-crop bushels still want an order resting above the market rather than a decision made after the next headline.
Live Cattle CFTC 057642
The week: October live cattle (LEV26) settled Friday at $215.925, up 27 cents on the day but down $3.75 on the week from $219.675. The market gave back a little over half of the prior week’s $6.725 gain, and then Cattle on Feed arrived after the close with placements down 9%.
Seven straight weeks of specs leaving. Managed Money sold another 1,988 to 45,262. The fund long has fallen every single week since late July, from 66,523 down to 45,262 — roughly a third of the position gone — and it has sat at rank 52 all month, the most defensive reading of the year. Commercials added a token 896 shorts to 95,148 but remain at rank 1 to 2, their least hedged posture of the year.
| Tuesday | Commercials net | WoW Δ | Managed Money net | WoW Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25 | -105,470 | — | +57,441 | — |
| Sep 1 | -96,645 | +8,825 | +47,914 | -9,527 ‡ |
| Sep 8 | -94,252 | +2,393 | +47,250 | -664 |
| Sep 15 | -95,148 | -896 | +45,262 | -1,988 |
WoW Δ = the change in the net position from the prior week (week over week). ‡ marks a swing greater than 10% of the prior week’s net.
What it means for the producer: This is the mirror image of the soybean situation and worth holding side by side with it. Beans met a bearish report with the largest spec long of the year and dropped 35¾ cents in a session. Cattle just met a friendly report with the smallest spec long of the year — rank 52, seven weeks of liquidation — and the market could not trade it until Monday. In our opinion that combination is worth watching rather than acting on: an under-positioned market has less to sell and more room to buy, but it needs a buyer with a reason, and one report does not make one. Cash trade, boxed beef and packer margins still decide it. Our guide to crowded positioning and scheduled reports covers why the same report lands differently depending on who is already in the trade.
Feeder Cattle CFTC 061641
Price note: we are not printing a Friday-to-Friday change for this market this week. The figures available to us are a prior weekly comparison and a delayed Sunday-session quote, neither of which is an official CME Friday settlement. November feeders were last verified at $328.175 on September 11 and were trading near the $318 area into the weekend, so the direction is clearly lower — but we would rather say that than publish a settlement calculation we cannot stand behind.
Producers have added shorts three weeks running. Commercials sold another 1,031 to 3,599 short — up from nearly flat at 368 in late August. Managed Money barely moved, trimming 80 contracts to 6,701, and has been effectively idle for two weeks. The ranks tell the fuller story: commercials at rank 1 to 5 are still historically unhedged even after three weeks of rebuilding, while funds at rank 49 to 52 are carrying far less length than they usually would. Nobody is crowded here in either direction.
A note on the percentages in this market. Feeder nets are tiny next to corn — a few thousand contracts against hundreds of thousands — so week-over-week percentages look violent when the prior week sat near zero. The 402% swing from September 1 is arithmetic on a base of 368 contracts. Read the contract counts here, not the percentages.
| Tuesday | Commercials net | WoW Δ | Managed Money net | WoW Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25 | -368 | — | +5,714 | — |
| Sep 1 | -1,847 | -1,479 ‡ | +7,508 | +1,794 ‡ |
| Sep 8 | -2,568 | -721 ‡ | +6,781 | -727 |
| Sep 15 | -3,599 | -1,031 ‡ | +6,701 | -80 |
WoW Δ = the change in the net position from the prior week (week over week). ‡ marks a swing greater than 10% of the prior week’s net.
What it means for the producer: A 9% drop in August placements points to a smaller flow of cattle into feedlots, which is a genuine supply fact for the deferred market. It does not automatically set a price for the calves you are selling this month. What sets that is corn cost, financing, feedyard margin appetite, and the bid in front of you — weight, sex, health program, lot size, freight, shrink and delivery date all sit between the board and your check. Watch the CME Feeder Cattle Index against your local physical market, and note that your peers in the physical trade have now added hedges three weeks running. For feedyards, a smaller placement number does not reduce your cost of gain: corn at $5.27 and the full closeout calculation still run the decision.
Lean Hogs CFTC 054642
The week: October hogs (HEV26) settled Friday at $78.10, down 80 cents on the day and $3.425 on the week from $81.525 — the weakest of the six markets and a decisive break below the $80 area that had held for a month. Unlike cattle, hogs got no late-week supply report to change the story.
A complete round trip in three weeks. On August 25, Managed Money was 31,135 contracts net short. They bought back 7,579 of that across the next two weeks, taking the position down to 23,556. Then in one week they sold 7,845 and finished at 31,401 short — within 300 contracts of exactly where they started. Commercials went the other way, covering 3,816 to 38,134 short after three straight weeks of adding hedges.
| Tuesday | Commercials net | WoW Δ | Managed Money net | WoW Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25 | -35,008 | — | -31,135 | — |
| Sep 1 | -38,102 | -3,094 | -28,323 | +2,812 |
| Sep 8 | -41,950 | -3,848 ‡ | -23,556 | +4,767 ‡ |
| Sep 15 | -38,134 | +3,816 | -31,401 | -7,845 ‡ |
WoW Δ = the change in the net position from the prior week (week over week). ‡ marks a swing greater than 10% of the prior week’s net.
The scorecard, and it closes a loop. A month ago this page wrote that 31,135 contracts of shorts have to buy eventually and will not do it slowly. They bought back a quarter of it over two weeks, the board went down anyway, and now they have put every contract back on. That is the whole lesson in one table: short covering removes selling pressure; it does not create a buyer. The cash side has to supply that, and it did not — so the shorts came back. We have also run a level-based plan here for weeks — orders resting through the $80 to $85 range, floors priced while the board held above $80. It closed at $78.10. A level-based plan only works while the level does, and this one broke.
What it means for the producer: If you have unpriced fall or winter production, the first thing to do is stop referencing $80. That number described a market that no longer exists, and waiting for it to return is patience disguised as a decision. Work out where your breakeven actually sits, then decide what price below the old level you are still willing to accept — and put that order in rather than carrying it in your head.
Two things cut against selling everything into this weakness. Specs are 31,401 contracts short, which is fuel for a fast bounce on any friendly headline, and commercials covered 3,816 this week after three straight weeks of adding hedges — the first time in a month the physical trade has stepped back from selling. Neither is a forecast. Together they argue for scaling rather than one decision at the low.
Practically: talk with your broker about what a floor costs down here and whether a purchased put fits better than a short futures position if cash is tight, since a put has no margin call attached while it is held. Then watch the things that would actually turn this — national cash hog bids, the Lean Hog Index, pork cutout direction and which cuts are moving it, slaughter pace and weights, and packer margins. The board will follow those. It has not led them once this month.
The bigger picture
With ranks on every market for the first time, the pattern this page has described since early August has a precise shape. Grain funds are ranked 1 to 2, and grain hedgers near 52. Cattle hedgers are at rank 1 to 5 and cattle funds at rank 49 to 52. The same two groups, in opposite corners, depending on which room you are standing in. Producers are selling grain strength and declining to sell cattle weakness, and they’ve done it consistently enough that it now shows up as a yearly extreme in four separate markets.
The week also closed the wheat loop. A fund position that went from 31,401 short to a rank-1 net long and back to net short in five weeks is the clearest illustration this page has printed of why a positioning reading is a snapshot rather than a signal. Anyone who treated rank 1 on September 1 as a forecast watched the board lose 62¾ cents over the following fortnight.
And Friday set up a question for Monday. Cattle on Feed showed August placements at 91% of year-ago against a 97.3% expectation — a friendly supply surprise — and it landed on a market where specs have liquidated for seven straight weeks and sit at their most defensive rank of the year. That is the reverse of what happened to soybeans a week earlier, when a bearish report met the largest fund long of the year. We are not forecasting the outcome. We are pointing out that the same report lands differently depending on who is already in the trade, and that both versions have now played out in front of readers within eight days.
Hogs closed a loop of their own. Funds spent two weeks buying back a quarter of the short they built in August, the board fell anyway, and this week they put every contract back on — 31,401 short, within 300 of where they started. Covering removes selling pressure; it does not create a buyer, and the cash side never supplied one.
Positioning describes the market; it does not predict it. Grain Stocks arrives September 30, then WASDE and Crop Production on October 9. Both are known dates.
None of this prices your grain or sells your cattle — your breakeven, your basis, and your own marketing plan do.
Positioning data is from the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended Tuesday, September 15, 2026. Commercials are Producer/Merchant net; Non-Commercials are Managed Money net. The 52-week rank is an Ag Optimus calculation, not a CFTC measure: rank 1 is the largest net long of the past 52 weeks and rank 52 the smallest. Weekly price change equals the Friday, September 18 settlement less the Friday, September 11 settlement for the same named contract; contracts are not substituted across months, and no weekly change is shown where an official settlement could not be verified. Market commentary reflects publicly reported trade and is drawn from public industry sources; verify all price levels against your own quote provider. USDA does not endorse, certify, or approve this analysis, Ag Optimus, or Optimus Futures LLC, and the use of USDA data here does not imply any such endorsement. This material is provided for general information and is the opinion of Ag Optimus; it should not be construed as a solicitation or as a recommendation to buy or sell any futures or options contract. Trading futures, options, and swaps involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Optimus Futures does not maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Rule 1.71. Ag Optimus is a registered DBA of Optimus Futures LLC [NFA ID 0481133]. All trading decisions remain yours.
