Ag Optimus · Weekly Positioning
Grain & Livestock Report
Market action this week · COT positioning as of Tuesday, August 4, 2026
Read the timing gap. The COT numbers below are a snapshot of positioning as of the close on Tuesday, August 4, published the following Friday. The market commentary reflects trade since then. When the two disagree, positioning has likely already shifted.
Why we lead with Managed Money. Managed Money is the speculative money — funds and large traders positioning for a price move, not hedging a physical crop. When they crowd to one side, the market gets stretched, and stretched markets move hard when they turn. Commercials tell you where the grain is. Managed Money tells you where the risk is.
From the desk · New this week
New to positioning data — or reading this report for the first time? We published a full producer’s guide to every column on this page: how to read the COT report — the two columns that matter, why we lead with Managed Money, what the 52-week ranks mean, and a worked corn example from this summer’s tape. Start there, then come back to this week’s numbers.
Corn CFTC 002602
Divergence forming
The week: Quiet and slightly softer. December finished the week near $4.62, about 2 cents lower and its lowest weekly close in a month, with favorable crop weather setting the tone despite a 286,000-metric-ton flash sale to Mexico. Monday’s Crop Progress and this week’s August WASDE are the catalysts ahead.
Managed Money — the speculative money
+181,946NET LONG
Week over week +13,547
52-week rank 12/52
Fifth straight week of fund buying — but the pace just collapsed. Managed Money added 13,547 contracts after buying 75,490 the week before, taking the net long to 181,946 — the largest of this run, yet only the twelfth-highest reading of the past year. Commercials did something new: after driving their short past half a million contracts, producers covered 9,375 — the first week of commercial short-covering since the stampede began.
Full positioning breakdown
| Category | Net | WoW Δ | 52W rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Producer / Merchant | -493,223 | +9,375 | 43 |
| Swap Dealer | +343,089 | -8,502 | 10 |
| Managed Money | +181,946 | +13,547 | 12 |
| Other Reportable | +13,622 | -14,332 | 37 |
| Non-Reportable | -45,432 | -85 | 39 |
What it means for the producer: Watch the divergence: funds kept buying and the board still closed at a one-month low. When record fund buying stops lifting price, the question becomes what happens when the buying stops. Your peers sold this rally in historic size and have now started covering — if you still hold unpriced tiers the plan meant to move, this week’s WASDE is the wrong event to face without resting orders. Review them with your broker before the number, not after.
Soybeans CFTC 005602
Funds step back
The week: Beans faded through the week as forecasts turned cooler and wetter — September finished near $11.59 and November near $11.76¼, both down roughly 11–12 cents. Talk of additional Chinese cargoes gave support but could not beat the weather. November’s technical test sits near its 100-day moving average around $11.71.
Managed Money — the speculative money
+125,466NET LONG
Week over week -29,535
52-week rank 25/52
The first real cut of the summer build. Managed Money sold 29,535 contracts — the biggest weekly spec sale in any of our six markets — trimming the long to 125,466. Commercials covered 27,834 almost in mirror image: funds selling to covering hedgers is what an orderly unwind looks like. Every category now sits mid-range; the story here is the change of direction, not an extreme.
Full positioning breakdown
| Category | Net | WoW Δ | 52W rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Producer / Merchant | -231,685 | +27,834 | 26 |
| Swap Dealer | +108,374 | +11,328 | 29 |
| Managed Money | +125,466 | -29,535 | 25 |
| Other Reportable | +20,669 | -9,359 | 21 |
| Non-Reportable | -22,824 | -268 | 28 |
What it means for the producer: The weather premium is leaking out, and the funds that built the rally just took a step toward the door. If November holds the $11.71 area, the window stays open; if it fails, the next leg lower tends to come fast. This is the week to confirm your downside triggers are working orders at levels you chose — and to ask your broker whether a floor under a tier of unpriced beans fits while the board is still near $11.75.
Wheat CFTC 001612
Stalled at the extreme
The week: The grain-room leader into the weekend: September Chicago gained 8½ cents Friday to $6.39¾, Kansas City jumped 14¼ to $7.14, and Minneapolis added 8½ to $6.79½, helped by firmer European wheat and a weaker dollar. The question the trade carries into next week: real buying, or a short-covering bounce?
Managed Money — the speculative money
+33,094NET LONG
Week over week -139
52-week rank 4/52
Frozen at the top of its range. Managed Money moved 139 contracts — effectively nothing — and has now held roughly 33,000 net long for three straight weeks, the fourth-highest reading of the past year. The other side is the story: commercials pressed their short to 96,220, the most-short reading of the past 52 weeks. Specs are long and idle; the physical trade is selling every pop in maximum size.
Full positioning breakdown
| Category | Net | WoW Δ | 52W rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Producer / Merchant | -96,220 | -1,159 | 52 |
| Swap Dealer | +77,805 | +54 | 6 |
| Managed Money | +33,094 | -139 | 4 |
| Other Reportable | -15,172 | +1,673 | 38 |
| Non-Reportable | +494 | -429 | 16 |
What it means for the producer: A rank-52 commercial short means your peers have sold this market harder than at any point in the past year — the physical trade is not waiting for better. If Friday’s bounce extends, that is the setup our positioning work calls a selling window that closes fast: specs are already long and hedgers are at maximum sell. Know the price where your next tier goes, and have the order resting before the bounce decides what it is.
Feeder Cattle CFTC 061641
The thaw begins
The week: A sharp Friday recovery closed the week: September feeders settled at $345.22, up $3.65, with the broader board up $2.95–$3.65 and the CME Feeder Cattle Index climbing $4.43 to $357.36. The board is still repairing the late-July setback, but the bounce off that low has now run more than $12.
Managed Money — the speculative money
+8,605NET LONG
Week over week +1,182
52-week rank 50/52
First fund buying since the book froze. Managed Money added 1,182 contracts — small, but the first genuine add in weeks — lifting the net long off its 12-month low to 8,605, still the third-lowest reading of the past year. Commercials leaned the other way, adding 1,172 to a small short that ranks among the least-short readings of the year. The book is still thin; it is just no longer frozen solid.
Full positioning breakdown
| Category | Net | WoW Δ | 52W rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Producer / Merchant | -5,746 | -1,172 | 6 |
| Swap Dealer | +5,977 | -341 | 5 |
| Managed Money | +8,605 | +1,182 | 50 |
| Other Reportable | -6,332 | -46 | 51 |
| Non-Reportable | -2,504 | +378 | 1 |
What it means for the producer: The freeze warning stands even as it starts to thaw: a thin book moves violently in both directions, and the late-July break followed by a $12 recovery just demonstrated both sides of it. If you buy replacements, the index at $357 and a recovering board argue for scaling with resting orders rather than chasing Friday’s strength. If you sell feeders, $345-and-recovering is a number to set against your plan — ask your broker what a first tier here would look like.
Live Cattle CFTC 057642
Two extremes, one week
The week: Volatile but constructive underneath: October closed Friday at $225.27, up 35 cents, though still about 0.9% lower on the week. The feature was cash — Kansas and Nebraska traded near $235, with Northern dressed business at $370–$380 — firming while futures softened, on reduced slaughter.
Managed Money — the speculative money
+66,067NET LONG
Week over week -456
52-week rank 52/52
FRESH 12-MONTH LOW
The selling has stopped moving the needle. Managed Money trimmed just 456 contracts — after six weeks and roughly 30,000 contracts of liquidation, the smallest cut yet leaves the net long at 66,067, a fresh 12-month low. Across the table, commercials covered 1,203 to reach their least-short reading of the past 52 weeks. Both columns hit their yearly extreme in the same week: the specs who wanted out are out, and the hedgers who wanted short are covering.
Full positioning breakdown
| Category | Net | WoW Δ | 52W rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Producer / Merchant | -114,088 | +1,203 | 1 |
| Swap Dealer | +60,299 | +240 | 3 |
| Managed Money | +66,067 | -456 | 52 |
| Other Reportable | +1,458 | -895 | 52 |
| Non-Reportable | -13,735 | -91 | 3 |
What it means for the producer: This is what seller exhaustion looks like in a table: spec length at a yearly low, commercial shorts at a yearly low, and cash trading $235 over a $225 board. Two weeks ago we called this an attempted bottom; the cash market just voted with it. That is not a promise the low is in — it is fuel-gauge reading: the selling that drove the break is running on empty. If you market fed cattle, discuss with your broker whether floors under fall marketings still earn their cost here, and what the futures discount to cash means for your delivery window.
Lean Hogs CFTC 054642
The spring is nearly spent
The week: A small Friday gain — October closed at $82.22, up 50 cents — inside a weak week: down about 3.1%, with a four-week closing low along the way. The CME Lean Hog Index slid to $97.17 with the projection pointing lower, so the cash side is softening underneath the board.
Managed Money — the speculative money
-9,642NET SHORT
Week over week +1,242
52-week rank 44/52
Third week of covering — and the fuel gauge says nearly empty. Managed Money bought back 1,242 contracts, shrinking the short to 9,642. Look at the pace: 12,281, then 7,273, then 1,242. About two-thirds of the record 30,438-contract short is gone, and the buying is decelerating exactly the way a spent spring should. The honest read: the covering support arrived, did its work — and is ending just as the cash index weakens.
Full positioning breakdown
| Category | Net | WoW Δ | 52W rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Producer / Merchant | -53,580 | +2,754 | 8 |
| Swap Dealer | +70,071 | +4,563 | 16 |
| Managed Money | -9,642 | +1,242 | 44 |
| Other Reportable | -2,266 | -7,343 | 47 |
| Non-Reportable | -4,584 | -1,217 | 10 |
What it means for the producer: Three weeks ago the coiled spring was the story; now it is mostly released, and the market goes back to trading cutout and cash — which are both softening. If you market hogs into Q4, the takeaway is direct: do not count on another squeeze to deliver a selling window. The trade is watching the roughly $80–$85 range on October; whatever your plan says inside that range should be resting as working orders, and the conversation about floors is better had at $82 than after the range breaks.
The bigger picture
The theme this week: positioning stopped confirming price. Corn funds bought a fifth straight week and the board still closed at a one-month low. Cattle specs finished a six-week liquidation just as cash firmed to $235. The hog short-covering that carried the board for three weeks is decelerating into a falling cash index. Across all six markets, the columns are going quiet — and several are going quiet at yearly extremes: wheat commercials at their most-short reading in 52 weeks, live cattle at spec-low and hedger-least-short in the same report.
Quiet extremes into an August WASDE — the survey-yield edition — is exactly the setup where resting orders beat reactions. The number lands this week; the positioning that will meet it is already on this page. Decide what your plan does at prices above and below the market now, so Wednesday’s range trades into your orders instead of your emotions.
None of this prices your grain or sells your cattle — your breakeven, your basis, and your own marketing plan do.
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Positioning data is from the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended Tuesday, August 4, 2026. Market commentary reflects publicly reported trade and is drawn from public industry sources; verify all price levels against your own quote provider. This material is provided for general information and is the opinion of Ag Optimus; it should not be construed as a solicitation. Trading futures, options, and swaps involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Ag Optimus is a registered DBA of Optimus Futures LLC [NFA ID 0481133]. All trading decisions remain yours.
