Market week ending Friday, November 6, 2026
Read the timing gap. These positions are a Tuesday, November 3 snapshot, published Friday. The table prices are Friday, November 6 settlements. Three days of trade sit between them, and all six markets fell across those three days.
The snapshot also predates Tuesday’s WASDE and Crop Production reports, which land at noon Eastern on November 10. Positioning before a major report shows how the market was leaning into it, not how anyone is positioned after it.
We lead with Managed Money because speculative positioning shows where the risk sits. Commercials show where the grain and the cattle are. When the two move apart, that gap usually matters more than either number on its own. This week they did something rarer than that.
The week in prices
| Market | Contract | Oct 30 | Nov 6 | Week |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corn | Dec 2026 | $4.4775 | $4.4150 | −6¼¢ |
| Soybeans | Jan 2027 | $12.3425 | $11.9375 | −40½¢ |
| Chicago SRW wheat | Dec 2026 | $6.0350 | $5.9125 | −12¼¢ |
| Feeder cattle | Jan 2027 | $331.775 | $318.375 | −$13.400 |
| Live cattle | Dec 2026 | $220.950 | $214.050 | −$6.900 |
| Lean hogs | Dec 2026 | $58.875 | $53.525 | −$5.350 |
Settlement prices. Soybeans and feeders are on January for a second week, and both weekly changes compare January against January. Verify against your own quote provider before acting on them.
Two markets changed sides in the same week, and both are firsts in this series.
Corn. Managed Money sold another 78,843 contracts and is now net short 22,900. The position was a net long of 55,943 a week ago and 426,842 on September 15. That is 449,742 contracts in seven weeks, and a fifth consecutive flagged week. Commercials have covered 198,013 over the four weeks shown, better than a third of their net short.
Wheat. Commercials are net long 5,525, out of a net short of 44,148 four weeks ago — a swing of 49,673 contracts. Managed Money went the other way to a net short of 88,726, the deepest in this series. All six week-over-week moves in wheat over the past three weeks are flagged, on both sides. The two groups now sit 94,251 contracts apart on opposite sides of the market.
Producer takeaway (opinion): In both markets, those who handle the physical grain have been buying from those who do not. That matters going into Tuesday, but it is not a forecast — a crowded position can stay crowded, or it can get even more crowded. What it does change is the shape of the risk: a market where funds are already short has less selling left to do on a bearish number, and more to buy back on a bullish one.
Tuesday is the week. WASDE and Crop Production land at noon Eastern on November 10, with CPI at 8:30 that morning. Analyst corn yield guesses run from 173.2 to 185.5 bushels after October’s 181.2 surprise, and soybean ending-stocks guesses span 280 to 404 million bushels — the widest range of the three crops. Russia-Ukraine talks in Abu Dhabi run November 10 and 11. Wednesday is Veterans Day and the grain markets are open, so expect thinner trade. Export sales follow on Friday.
Our guide to setting sale targets off a chart covers how to place offers around a report like this one, and how funds position around a scheduled report explains the pattern behind these numbers.
Corn · CFTC 002602
The long is gone, and the position is short
The week. December corn settled at $4.4150, down 6¼ cents, after touching a four-month low on Thursday and recovering a little Friday.
Managed Money net short: 22,900 contracts, a swing of 78,843 on the week.
| Tuesday | Commercials | WoW Δ | Managed Money | WoW Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13 | −553,240 | — | +230,877 | — |
| Oct 20 | −475,947 | +77,293 ‡ | +146,257 | −84,620 ‡ |
| Oct 27 | −413,858 | +62,089 ‡ | +55,943 | −90,314 ‡ |
| Nov 3 | −355,227 | +58,631 ‡ | −22,900 | −78,843 ‡ |
WoW Δ is the change from the prior Tuesday. ‡ marks a swing over 10 percent of the prior week’s net.
Five consecutive flagged weeks on both sides. Managed Money has sold 253,777 contracts in a month, and the net long no longer exists. Commercials bought back 198,013 over the same four weeks, cutting their net short by better than a third. Both groups have moved in the same direction, at scale, for five straight reports.
Harvest reached 74 percent as of November 1, down from a 77 percent average, with Iowa at 66 percent, 13 points behind its own pace. Export sales were 1.295 million tonnes, 10 percent above the four-week average. The November WASDE is Tuesday, and the two published analyst surveys disagree: Dow Jones has the average yield at 180.5 bushels with ending stocks of 1.826 billion, while Bloomberg has 180.6 and 1.846 billion. Individual yield guesses run from 173.2 to 185.5.
Your insurance price is now 33½ cents above the board. The 2026 corn harvest price is $4.75 against a projected $4.62, and Revenue Protection uses the higher of the two. December futures at $4.4150 sit well under it. If you carry RP, an unpriced bushel is worth more to you than the screen says — run that before Tuesday rather than after.
Selling: Iowa’s average cash corn was $4.01 Friday, 40 cents under December. That is a wider basis than two weeks ago, and basis differs enough between elevators in one state to be worth more than one phone call.
Storing: March pays 13¾ cents over December and July pays 29¾. Against your own storage, interest, and shrink, that arithmetic decides whether holding earns anything. Buying (feedlots, ethanol, processors): the same carry pays you to own inventory rather than buy hand to mouth.
Soybeans · CFTC 005602
The biggest weekly liquidation of the four
The week. January soybeans settled at $11.9375, down 40½ cents, after an 11-week low early Friday and a nine-day losing streak that ended at the close.
Managed Money net long: 132,799 contracts, down 52,601 on the week (−28.4%).
| Tuesday | Commercials | WoW Δ | Managed Money | WoW Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13 | −274,184 | — | +237,491 | — |
| Oct 20 | −250,428 | +23,756 | +206,936 | −30,555 ‡ |
| Oct 27 | −242,017 | +8,411 | +185,400 | −21,536 ‡ |
| Nov 3 | −206,524 | +35,493 ‡ | +132,799 | −52,601 ‡ |
WoW Δ is the change from the prior Tuesday. ‡ marks a swing over 10 percent of the prior week’s net.
Four straight weeks of fund selling, each one flagged, and this was the largest. Net long is down 104,692 contracts in a month, or 44.1 percent. Soybeans still carry the largest fund long of the six markets, but the gap with the others has closed sharply. Commercials covered 67,660 over the same four weeks.
Export sales were 1.456 million tonnes, down 44 percent from the previous week, and China is close to its 25-million-tonne purchase target for 2026, which has slowed its buying. For Tuesday, all 15 firms in the Dow Jones survey expect a record yield: the survey averages 53.6 bushels, with ending stocks of 336 million; Bloomberg reports 53.5 and 332.2 million. Individual stocks’ guesses run from 280 to 404 million bushels.
Your insurance price is 69 cents above the board. The soybean harvest price is $12.63, above the projected $11.09. January futures at $11.9375 are well below, so Revenue Protection already values your bushels above what the market will pay today. That gap is bigger than corn’s, both in percentage terms and in cents.
Selling: Iowa’s average cash beans were $11.21, 68 cents under January. Processors have typically paid more than the state average this autumn, and the difference has been worth trucking for.
Before Tuesday: a 124-million-bushel spread in ending-stocks guesses is the widest of the three crops, which means unpriced beans carry genuine two-way risk into the report. Growers who sell ahead of a number like that generally size it so either outcome is survivable rather than trying to pick the side.
Wheat · CFTC 001602 · Chicago SRW
Commercials are now net long, and funds are the deepest short in this series
The week. December Chicago wheat settled at $5.9125, down 12¼ cents, and traded its lowest since late June ahead of the Abu Dhabi talks.
Commercials net long 5,525 contracts. Managed Money net short 88,726.
| Tuesday | Commercials | WoW Δ | Managed Money | WoW Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13 | −44,148 | — | −33,038 | — |
| Oct 20 | −25,700 | +18,448 ‡ | −51,134 | −18,096 ‡ |
| Oct 27 | −7,539 | +18,161 ‡ | −74,859 | −23,725 ‡ |
| Nov 3 | +5,525 | +13,064 ‡ | −88,726 | −13,867 ‡ |
WoW Δ is the change from the prior Tuesday. ‡ marks a swing over 10 percent of the prior week’s net.
We have tracked this handoff for three weeks, and it is now complete. Commercials have swung 49,673 contracts in a month, from a net short of 44,148 to a net long of 5,525. Managed Money went the opposite way by 55,688 to its deepest short in this series. Every week-over-week move shown above is flagged, on both sides, for three consecutive reports. The two groups are 94,251 contracts apart and on opposite sides of the market.
Abu Dhabi talks are driving price more than supply and demand. Russia’s deputy foreign minister has said there is no prospect of reviving the Black Sea grain deal, and at least one analyst expects the meeting to produce little. Against that, export sales were 538,028 tonnes, the second-largest week of the marketing year. Winter wheat is 83 percent planted and 65 percent emerged, close to average, helped by Plains rain.
Most of this week’s price risk is headline risk. A deal from Abu Dhabi and a failed meeting would likely move wheat in opposite directions, and neither outcome a balance sheet can tell you in advance. Decide now what you would do in either case, because the move will happen faster than the decision.
Storing: July pays 24 cents over December. Same test as corn — does that beat your own cost of carry?
Worth knowing: commercials net long while funds hold their largest short in this series is an unusual structure. In our view, this makes the market more reactive to news than it was a month ago, in either direction, so decide your orders in advance rather than guessing which way it breaks.
Feeder Cattle · CFTC 061641
Both sides reversed, and the board is $19 under the index
The week. January feeders settled at $318.375, down $13.40, their lowest since September 18.
Managed Money net long: 11,302 contracts, down 2,051 on the week (−15.4%).
| Tuesday | Commercials | WoW Δ | Managed Money | WoW Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13 | −6,593 | — | +8,852 | — |
| Oct 20 | −7,494 | −901 ‡ | +10,444 | +1,592 ‡ |
| Oct 27 | −9,650 | −2,156 ‡ | +13,353 | +2,909 ‡ |
| Nov 3 | −7,199 | +2,451 ‡ | +11,302 | −2,051 ‡ |
WoW Δ is the change from the prior Tuesday. ‡ marks a swing over 10 percent of the prior week’s net. Read the contract counts, not the percentages — this is a small market where two thousand contracts moves the percentage sharply.
This is the first snapshot containing trade after the late-October break, and both sides turned around. Commercials had gone 46 percent more net short over the previous two weeks; this week they covered 2,451. Managed Money had built its long 52 percent over the same two weeks; this week it came off 2,051. Both moves are flagged, and both are the opposite of what the prior two reports showed.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index fell $5.35 to $337.41 on November 5. January futures settled at $318.375. The board is $19.04 below the cash index, and $15.09 below it on the November contract, which settles against that index.
The index fell this week, so the gap is no longer cash holding while the board falls—both are falling, and the board is falling faster. Mexican cattle crossing at Douglas and Santa Teresa sold $15 to $20 lower Tuesday. Nogales is still scheduled to reopen November 30, though USDA says that depends on conditions, and Arizona confirmed its first screwworm case on October 28, in a dog.
Selling calves or yearlings: a $19 gap means the board is pricing a materially lower cash market by January. That may prove right or wrong, but it does mean a hedge placed this week locks in a number well below what the barn is paying now. Check local sale results before you react to the screen.
Buying feeders: cheaper corn and a lower board both help, and the Mexican cattle trading $15 to $20 lower is a real supply signal. But fed cattle are falling too, so whether a placement pencils depends on your breakeven rather than board price alone.
Live Cattle · CFTC 057642
Producers covered hedges for the first time in this series
The week. December live cattle settled at $214.050, down $6.90, after nine losing sessions in a row and an 11-month low.
Commercials covered 13,673 contracts, their first flagged move in this series.
| Tuesday | Commercials | WoW Δ | Managed Money | WoW Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13 | −106,556 | — | +48,748 | — |
| Oct 20 | −111,360 | −4,804 | +51,143 | +2,395 |
| Oct 27 | −116,193 | −4,833 | +56,017 | +4,874 |
| Nov 3 | −102,520 | +13,673 ‡ | +51,692 | −4,325 |
WoW Δ is the change from the prior Tuesday. ‡ marks a swing over 10 percent of the prior week’s net.
For four weeks, commercials added to their net short while funds added to their long. This week both reversed. Commercials covered 13,673 contracts (11.8%), the first flagged move on either side of this market in the period shown. Managed Money trimmed 4,325, which didn’t clear the threshold but pointed the same way.
Cash traded at $218 in the South, down $7, and mostly $214 in Nebraska, down $10, with late northern sales at $210 to $212. The Choice cutout was $360.79 Friday. The North appears backed up with expensive-to-feed heavy cattle, which gives packers leverage. Thursday’s stock market selloff added to the pressure.
Selling fed cattle: December at $214.05 now sits at about northern cash and under southern. A week ago it was under both. That changes the comparison between taking the cash bid and putting a floor under the price on the board, and it changes it week to week, so it is worth rechecking rather than assuming last month’s relationship still holds.
If you have heavy cattle, the tighter supply everyone expects in 2027 doesn’t help a pen that needs to move now. Packers holding back for a week or two doesn’t change next year’s math, but it does change this month’s, and the cost of carrying a heavy animal doesn’t pause while you wait.
Lean Hogs · CFTC 054642
Contract lows, and the deepest fund short of the four weeks
The week. December lean hogs settled at $53.525, down $5.35, after setting a contract low of $53.175. Hog futures have fallen roughly a third since late July.
Managed Money net short: 50,492 contracts, 3,383 deeper on the week.
| Tuesday | Commercials | WoW Δ | Managed Money | WoW Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13 | −27,081 | — | −42,088 | — |
| Oct 20 | −28,079 | −998 | −41,133 | +955 |
| Oct 27 | −21,469 | +6,610 ‡ | −47,109 | −5,976 ‡ |
| Nov 3 | −22,030 | −561 | −50,492 | −3,383 |
WoW Δ is the change from the prior Tuesday. ‡ marks a swing over 10 percent of the prior week’s net.
No flagged moves this week, which is worth noting in a market-making contract low. Managed Money pushed its short out to 50,492 contracts, 8,404 deeper than a month ago and the largest of the four weeks shown. Commercials added 561, bringing them close to their level a fortnight ago. The two groups have been drifting apart steadily, not sharply.
The physical market continues to lead the decline. The CME Lean Hog Index was $62.86 on November 4. The national base price was $46.21 Friday afternoon and the pork cutout $70.65. Average carcass weights rose to 293.5 pounds from 291.6 a year ago, putting more pork on the market from the same number of head.
Selling hogs: December at $53.525 sits $9.34 under the index, so the board is already pricing further cash weakness into December. The question for a hedge is whether your own expectation for cash is better or worse than that discount. If it is better, selling here locks in the market’s pessimism rather than yours. Cheaper feed helps the cost side, but it doesn’t offset $46 base hogs.
Buying pork: a $70.65 cutout with heavier carcasses coming is about as soft a procurement window as this market has offered in a long while. If your contracts allow feature pricing or building inventory, this kind of period doesn’t come around often.
The bigger picture
Six markets are lower for a second straight week, and in two of them the positioning has flipped. Corn’s fund long is gone; it’s now a short. Wheat’s commercials are not just covered; they are net long. Those are different events from the steady grinding liquidation of the past month, and they happened in the same report.
What connects them is who was on each side. In corn and wheat, the people who handle the physical commodity have spent a month buying from those who don’t. That is the usual shape of a market that has sold off hard: as the reason fades, hedges come off, and speculative length leaves. It says the selling pressure from one particular source is largely spent. It does not say the market has stopped falling, and this week’s prices remind us of that.
In cattle, the story is simpler and harder. Both cattle markets fell again, and this is the first snapshot that includes trade after the late-October break. In feeders, both sides reversed direction. In live cattle, producers covered hedges for the first time in this series, while the cash market gave packers leverage. The feeder board sits $19 under an index now falling, unlike a fortnight ago when cash was climbing, and only the board was dropping.
Tuesday will matter more than any of it. A 12-bushel spread in corn yield guesses and a 124-million-bushel spread in soybean ending stocks mean the report can move either market through a week’s worth of range in an afternoon. Positioning tells you where the risk sits before the number. It does not tell you the number. Your breakeven, storage cost, and marketing plan still decide more about your year than any of these figures will.
Frequently asked questions
Yes. As of Tuesday, November 3, corn managed money was net short 22,900 contracts, down from a net long of 55,943 a week earlier and 426,842 on September 15. That is a reduction of 449,742 contracts over seven weeks, and the fifth consecutive week with a move larger than 10 percent of the prior week’s net.
Commercials have covered steadily for a month, from a net short of 44,148 on October 13 to a net long of 5,525 on November 3, a swing of 49,673 contracts. Over the same period, Managed Money built its net short from 33,038 to 88,726. Every week-over-week move on both sides across the last three reports exceeded 10 percent of the prior week’s net.
No. These positions are a snapshot of Tuesday, November 3. The November WASDE and Crop Production reports are released at noon Eastern on Tuesday, November 10. The figures here show how the market was positioned going into that report, not after it.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index was $337.41 on November 5, while January futures settled at $318.375, a $19.04 discount. Unlike a fortnight ago, the index is now falling too, down $5.35 on the week, so the gap reflects the board declining faster rather than cash holding firm. Mexican cattle crossing at Douglas and Santa Teresa sold $15 to $20 lower on Tuesday.
Commercial means the Producer, Merchant, Processor, and User net position only. Non-commercial means the Managed Money net position only. We do not combine Swap Dealers or Other Reportables into either category, so our figures will not always match providers who do.
Most of our brokers farm and feed too. Have your expected production or placements, what is already priced or hedged, your cost of production, and your storage or feeding costs handy.
Sources. Positioning from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission Commitments of Traders report for the week ended November 3, 2026. Grain settlements from CME Group and USDA Agricultural Marketing Service; livestock settlements from CME Group — verify against your own quote provider. Crop Progress, Export Sales, and the USDA WASDE release calendar. Cash, basis, index, and wholesale values from USDA Agricultural Marketing Service, CME Group, and DTN. Analyst survey ranges from Dow Jones and Bloomberg, as reported by Pro Farmer and DTN. Crop insurance price figures are from the University of Illinois FarmDoc.
USDA does not endorse, certify, or approve this analysis, Ag Optimus, or Optimus Futures LLC. This material is for general education and information only and is the opinion of Ag Optimus where marked. It is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any futures contract, option, or cash commodity, and it is not individualized marketing, hedging, tax, or legal advice. Trading futures, options, and swaps involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors; losses can exceed funds deposited. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Optimus Futures does not maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Rule 1.71. Ag Optimus is a registered DBA of Optimus Futures LLC [NFA ID 0481133]. You make all marketing and trading decisions.
