Read the timing gap. The COT numbers below are a snapshot of positioning as of the close on Tuesday, August 18, published the following Friday. The market commentary reflects trade since then. When the two disagree, positioning has likely already shifted.
Why we lead with Managed Money. Managed Money is the speculative money — funds and large traders positioning for a price move, not hedging a physical crop. When they crowd to one side, the market gets stretched, and stretched markets move hard when they turn. Commercials tell you where the grain is. Managed Money tells you where the risk is.
The calendar did it again. These positions are as of Tuesday, August 18 — they capture the money’s reaction to the WASDE and Tyson, but not Friday’s two shocks: the Cattle on Feed report, released after the futures close, and the beef-import announcement that hit the board midday. The record-low placement number meets the market at Monday’s open — the morning you are likely reading this.
Friday’s Cattle on Feed report was a live demonstration of the first lesson in our Cattle on Feed guide: the report is graded against expectations, not last year. The trade braced for placements down 7%; USDA printed down 11% — below the entire pre-report range. If you read the guide last week, you knew exactly what that gap meant the moment it crossed the wire. New here? Start with our guide to reading the COT report, then come back to the tables below.
Friday’s One-Two: Record-Low Placements Meet Duty-Free Imports
The Cattle on Feed report, released after Friday’s close, printed the tightest July in the history of the data series: placements of 1.42 million head, down 11% and the lowest July since records began in 1996 — below the entire range of pre-report estimates, with the trade positioned for roughly a 7% decline. Marketings, at 1.62 million, were also a record July low, and total on-feed inventory stood at 11.1 million head, up 2%. The weight detail ran tight across the board — under-600-pound placements of 310,000 against 340,000 a year ago — and the state numbers show where the hole is: Kansas and Nebraska placements each down 14%, Texas flat. Industry analysts attribute the collapse to drought-forced placements earlier in the year, which front-loaded feedlot inventories and left a late-summer supply gap.
Hours earlier, the board had been hit from the opposite direction: the administration announced that roughly 300,000 metric tons of beef imports will enter duty-free over the next 90 days, aimed at lowering ground-beef prices. Live and feeder futures gapped sharply lower on the open — and then gave almost none of it back to the sellers, closing near unchanged with deferred months higher. So Friday delivered a bullish supply shock the market could not trade until Monday, stacked on a bearish policy shock it traded immediately and largely rejected within the session, two weeks after Tyson redrew the packing map. Note the target, though: import beef competes most directly with lean trimmings and the ground-beef market, not the high-value cuts fed cattle are priced on — a distinction the board tends to sort out only after the first reaction.
The clash is the story: the cattle supply has never been tighter for a July, and the demand map — packing capacity, trade policy — has rarely been this unsettled at the same time.
What it means for the producer: Monday opens with both headlines in the market at once, and gap risk runs both directions. This is the textbook week for orders over opinions: if you sell cattle this fall, discuss with your broker where floors price after Friday’s close and whether the record-tight placement picture changes the coverage math — and if you buy feeders, what a supply hole in placements may mean for replacement costs into fall. The basis conversation from the Tyson week still stands underneath it all.
Corn CFTC 002602
The week: December corn finished Friday at $5.08½, up 5 cents on the day and up 25¼ cents on the week — a two-and-a-half-year high for the contract. The Pro Farmer tour closed Friday afternoon with a national corn crop of 15.344 billion bushels on 173.2 bushels per acre, against USDA’s August estimate of 16.013 billion on 180.7 — a gap of 669 million bushels and the widest split between the two in six years. Iowa came in at 194.0 bushels, below last year’s record 198.4. The next scheduled catalyst is the September 11 WASDE and Crop Production release.
The answer to last week’s question, in record size. The specs who stepped off before the WASDE stepped back on with force: Managed Money bought 83,735 contracts in one week — the largest weekly add we have covered on this page — taking the long to 250,505, the biggest of the entire run. And across the table, producers sold 58,943 into the same rally, driving the commercial short to 540,774 — past July’s record. The biggest two-sided week in our coverage: funds chasing the yield-cut story, the physical trade selling it in historic size.
| Tuesday | Commercials net | WoW Δ | Managed Money net | WoW Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 28 | -502,598 | — | +168,399 | — |
| Aug 4 | -493,223 | +9,375 | +181,946 | +13,547 |
| Aug 11 | -481,831 | +11,392 | +166,770 | -15,176 |
| Aug 18 | -540,774 | -58,943 ‡ | +250,505 | +83,735 ‡ |
WoW Δ = the change in the net position from the prior week (week over week). ‡ marks a swing greater than 10% of the prior week’s net.
What it means for the producer: Read the two columns together: the largest fund bet of the run met the largest wave of peer selling this page has recorded. The commercial column says the physical trade treated the post-WASDE board as a selling window and used it in record size — while the money betting on higher prices is now the most crowded it has been all summer. In our opinion, both facts argue the same discipline: if the rally extends, the plan’s next tier should meet it as a resting order; if the crowd turns, you will be glad the pricing already happened. Discuss the tiers with your broker before September 11, not after.
Soybeans CFTC 005602
The week: Beans led the grain room: November closed Friday at $12.39½, up 3 cents on the day and up 47 cents on the week — the strongest weekly gain on this page. Friday morning brought flash sales of 720,000 tons to unknown destinations and 712,000 tons to China for 2026/27, and the Pro Farmer tour found pod counts below last year in key states even as it called the crop a potential national record at 53.3 bushels per acre.
The rebuild, at speed. After liquidating nearly 54,000 contracts over two weeks, Managed Money reversed and bought 50,300 in one — a 49.6% jump — lifting the long to 151,662. Commercials sold 30,403 against it, their biggest week of new hedging in a month. The same pattern as corn, one size smaller: specs chasing renewed strength, the physical trade selling into it.
| Tuesday | Commercials net | WoW Δ | Managed Money net | WoW Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 28 | -259,519 | — | +155,001 | — |
| Aug 4 | -231,685 | +27,834 ‡ | +125,466 | -29,535 ‡ |
| Aug 11 | -210,608 | +21,077 | +101,362 | -24,104 ‡ |
| Aug 18 | -241,011 | -30,403 ‡ | +151,662 | +50,300 ‡ |
WoW Δ = the change in the net position from the prior week (week over week). ‡ marks a swing greater than 10% of the prior week’s net.
What it means for the producer: Two Fridays ago this market closed at $11.59 and the window looked like it was leaking shut. It is now $12.39½ with fresh export demand on the wire — the second chance became a third, and your peers are visibly taking it: 30,403 contracts of new commercial selling says the physical trade is pricing into this strength. A plan with unpriced beans has rarely had a clearer prompt. Talk through which tier belongs at these levels, where the trigger sits underneath if the tour narrative fades, and let the order do the waiting.
Wheat CFTC 001602 · CHICAGO SRW
A correction — and a permanent upgrade. Our last two editions ran a single wheat table from CFTC code 001612, which is the hard red winter contract, while quoting Chicago prices next to it. That mislabel produced a read that was wrong in direction, not just degree: we described the funds as net long and adding when in Chicago they were net short and covering. From this edition forward this page carries both wheats — Chicago soft red winter and Kansas City hard red winter — because they are different crops grown in different country, and this week they are positioned against each other. If you acted on last week’s wheat note, please call us.
| The split, as of Aug 18 | Chicago SRW | Kansas City HRW |
|---|---|---|
| Managed Money | -26,485 short | +34,835 long |
| …and this week they | covered 4,916 | added 7,173 |
| Commercials | -61,729 · sold 12,856 | -95,036 · sold 1,828 |
The week: September Chicago wheat closed Friday at $6.81½, up roughly 7 cents on the week and about 50 cents off the early-August lows near $6.30. The move has been a grind higher rather than a spike — corn’s strength pulling on it from one side, Black Sea headline risk from the other.
They built the short right into the turn. In the two weeks to August 11, Managed Money went from 6,880 short to 31,401 — roughly 24,500 new shorts, including one week that more than tripled the position outright. Then the market firmed underneath them, and by August 18 they had bought back 4,916 of it. Commercials moved hard the other way: 12,856 new shorts, a 26.3% jump to 61,729 and an extremely bearish reading on their own 52-week scale. Swap dealers added 5,285 to a solid 81,794 net long.
| Tuesday | Commercials net | WoW Δ | Managed Money net | WoW Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 28 | -60,206 | — | -6,880 | — |
| Aug 4 | -50,214 | +9,992 ‡ | -23,786 | -16,906 ‡ |
| Aug 11 | -48,873 | +1,341 | -31,401 | -7,615 ‡ |
| Aug 18 | -61,729 | -12,856 ‡ | -26,485 | +4,916 ‡ |
WoW Δ = the change in the net position from the prior week (week over week). ‡ marks a swing greater than 10% of the prior week’s net.
What it means for the producer: Two things are true at once and they point the same way. The funds are short and have started buying it back, which is the kind of move that can carry price further than the fundamentals justify — short-covering rallies tend to run until the shorts are gone. And your peers in the physical trade added nearly 13,000 contracts of hedges into that same strength, which is the clearest statement in this table about what they think of $6.81. In our opinion, that combination describes a selling window rather than a trend: potentially more room while the covering lasts, with a hedger wall sitting above it. If you have old-crop bushels left, this is the week to decide the number you would sell at and put the order there — a short-covering rally does not send an invitation before it ends.
Wheat CFTC 001612 · KANSAS CITY HRW
The week: September Kansas City wheat closed Friday at [KC CLOSE]. KC has been carrying a premium of roughly 70 cents over Chicago through August — hard red winter is the protein wheat, and the two classes trade on different crops in different country. If you farm the southern Plains, this is your contract, and the Chicago number above is somebody else’s market.
The frozen long finally moved — upward. After three weeks parked near 33,000 and one week of trimming, Managed Money added 7,173 contracts to 34,835, a 25.9% jump and the clearest commitment specs have made to this contract in a month. Commercials barely flinched, adding 1,828 to sit at 95,036 short and still parked near their most-hedged reading of the year. Swap dealers held a supportive 79,070 net long, while other reportables sold 4,385 to move deeper short at 18,891.
| Tuesday | Commercials net | WoW Δ | Managed Money net | WoW Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 28 | -95,061 | — | +33,233 | — |
| Aug 4 | -96,220 | -1,159 | +33,094 | -139 |
| Aug 11 | -93,208 | +3,012 | +27,662 | -5,432 ‡ |
| Aug 18 | -95,036 | -1,828 | +34,835 | +7,173 ‡ |
WoW Δ = the change in the net position from the prior week (week over week). ‡ marks a swing greater than 10% of the prior week’s net.
What it means for the producer: Read this one next to Chicago rather than instead of it. Here the funds are long and adding; there they are short and covering. What the two share is the commercial column — hedgers heavily short in both, and in KC sitting near their most-hedged reading of the year without budging through a month of price movement. In our opinion that is the durable signal in this table: the physical trade has been comfortable selling KC rallies all summer and did not change its mind this week. Specs pressing longs into a hedger wall can carry price for a while, but it is the specs who have to leave eventually, not the elevators. For remaining HRW bushels, treat added spec length as a reason to have the order placed, not a reason to wait for more.
Feeder Cattle CFTC 061641
The week: September feeders closed Friday at $329.02, up a dime on the day but down about $5.50 on the week, trading near nine-month-low territory. The flat close hides the session: the board opened sharply lower on the import headline and recovered all of it by the bell — squeezed between a record-tight placement picture underneath and the policy headline overhead. Feeders have shed more than $20/cwt since August 5.
The funds stepped back; the commercials went all the way. Managed Money cut 1,240 contracts to 7,498 — back near the bottom of its yearly range — while producers covered 2,442, a 44% one-week move that shrank the commercial short to just 3,083: their least-short posture of the past 52 weeks. A nearly flat commercial book at the yearly extreme, in the same week USDA reported the fewest July feedlot placements on record, suggests the physical trade is not interested in selling this market down here.
| Tuesday | Commercials net | WoW Δ | Managed Money net | WoW Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 28 | -4,574 | — | +7,423 | — |
| Aug 4 | -5,746 | -1,172 ‡ | +8,605 | +1,182 ‡ |
| Aug 11 | -5,525 | +221 | +8,738 | +133 |
| Aug 18 | -3,083 | +2,442 ‡ | +7,498 | -1,240 ‡ |
WoW Δ = the change in the net position from the prior week (week over week). ‡ marks a swing greater than 10% of the prior week’s net.
What it means for the producer: Friday’s report confirmed what the placement collapse means for this market: 11% fewer cattle entered feedlots in July than a year ago — the thinnest pipeline for the month on record — which is the supply story directly underneath the feeder board. If you sell feeders or calves this fall, a nine-month-low board over a record-tight supply picture is exactly the two-sided setup where resting orders and floor discussions typically beat predictions. If you buy replacements, the same numbers warn that the supply hole may keep replacement costs firm even when the board is weak. Updated break-evens first; conviction later.
Live Cattle CFTC 057642
The week: October live cattle closed Friday at $217.92, roughly flat on the week — a deceptively quiet number for a session that opened sharply lower on the import announcement, recovered nearly all of it into the close with deferred months higher, and then saw the tightest July Cattle on Feed report in the history of the series land after the bell. Industry trackers put the recent cash correction near $35 off the highs, with boxed beef holding up better than cash.
Eighth week at the yearly low — while the hedgers bought the Tyson break. Managed Money trimmed 3,148 to 61,514, still the smallest spec length of the past year. The commercial column is the story: producers covered 7,135 contracts — into the post-Tyson weakness — reclaiming their least-short reading of the past 52 weeks. When the physical trade responds to a demand scare by lifting hedges rather than adding them, in our opinion it is telling you what it thinks of these prices.
| Tuesday | Commercials net | WoW Δ | Managed Money net | WoW Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 28 | -115,291 | — | +66,523 | — |
| Aug 4 | -114,088 | +1,203 | +66,067 | -456 |
| Aug 11 | -116,155 | -2,067 | +64,662 | -1,405 |
| Aug 18 | -109,020 | +7,135 | +61,514 | -3,148 |
WoW Δ = the change in the net position from the prior week (week over week). ‡ marks a swing greater than 10% of the prior week’s net.
What it means for the producer: Monday’s open carries Friday’s whole story at once: record-low placements the market has not traded yet, an import headline it has, a cash correction near $35, and a packing map still resettling. Gap risk runs both ways, and that is precisely the environment where the plan — not the open — should decide what happens. If floors under fall marketings were worth discussing at $225 and again at $218, Friday’s supply data is a reason to have that conversation with numbers, today, before the board finishes repricing. Waiting to see how Monday trades is a decision too — just not a plan.
Lean Hogs CFTC 054642
The week: October hogs closed Friday at $80.87, up 65 cents on the day but down about 88 cents on the week, holding just above the $80 floor of the range everyone is watching while the cash index continues to soften.
Two weeks, 13,800 new shorts — and the other column at its yearly extreme. Managed Money pressed again: 8,365 fresh shorts, a 55% weekly jump, rebuilding the position to 23,486 shorts. Producers went the opposite way in size, covering 9,543 — nearly 20% of their book — to reach their least-short reading of the past 52 weeks. A crowded, fast-built spec short standing across from a commercial column at maximum support is, in our opinion, the textbook architecture of a squeeze; whether cash cooperates is the missing ingredient.
| Tuesday | Commercials net | WoW Δ | Managed Money net | WoW Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 28 | -56,334 | — | -10,884 | — |
| Aug 4 | -53,580 | +2,754 | -9,642 | +1,242 ‡ |
| Aug 11 | -48,296 | +5,284 | -15,121 | -5,479 ‡ |
| Aug 18 | -38,753 | +9,543 ‡ | -23,486 | -8,365 ‡ |
WoW Δ = the change in the net position from the prior week (week over week). ‡ marks a swing greater than 10% of the prior week’s net.
What it means for the producer: Three weeks of spec re-shorting has rebuilt most of the fuel the July squeeze burned — and this time the commercial column is at its yearly support extreme while it happens. That does not predict a bottom; it describes a market where the next piece of friendly news may meet a crowd leaning the same direction. For Q4 marketings, the standing plan still fits: orders resting through the $80–$85 range, floors priced while the board holds $80, and no directional bet — the positioning now argues violence in either direction more than it argues direction.
The bigger picture
Step back from the six tables and one pattern owns the week: the physical trade has chosen sides by complex. In the grain room, producers sold the rally in record size — the corn commercial short passed 540,000 contracts, the largest this page has recorded — while funds chased it with their biggest weekly buy of the run. Wheat is the odd one out, and it splits in half: the funds are net short in Chicago and only beginning to cover, while they are net long in Kansas City and adding. Same grain, opposite bets — so the grain room this week is not one trade but three. In the livestock room, the mirror image: commercials in live cattle, feeders, and hogs all reached their least-short posture of the past 52 weeks in the same week — the entire physical livestock trade at maximum support, refusing to sell weakness, while the funds sit at or near their most bearish readings of the year. Grain hedgers are selling strength; livestock hedgers are buying weakness. The people closest to the physical product rarely speak this clearly in unison.
And then Friday delivered its one-two after the tables were drawn: the tightest July Cattle on Feed report on record, which the market could not trade until Monday, on top of an import headline it traded immediately and largely gave back within the session. Next Friday’s tables show the money’s answer. The producer’s edge is the same one it has been all month: these event weeks typically reward resting orders placed on your numbers, not reactions traded on theirs. September’s WASDE is already on the calendar, and it arrives with a 669-million-bushel disagreement between Pro Farmer and USDA waiting to be settled. Decide now what your plan does at prices above and below this market — then let the week come to you.
None of this prices your grain or sells your cattle — your breakeven, your basis, and your own marketing plan do.
Positioning data is from the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended Tuesday, August 18, 2026. Market commentary reflects publicly reported trade and is drawn from public industry sources; verify all price levels against your own quote provider. This material is provided for general information and is the opinion of Ag Optimus; it should not be construed as a solicitation. Trading futures, options, and swaps involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Ag Optimus is a registered DBA of Optimus Futures LLC [NFA ID 0481133]. All trading decisions remain yours.
