Here is how the November WASDE compared with trade estimates on every figure. U.S. corn and soybean carryout came in 68 million and 36 million bushels below the survey averages. Soybean production landed just above the lowest estimate. Two world numbers fell outside their estimate ranges, in opposite directions: soybean stocks came in below the bottom of the range, and wheat stocks came in above the top.
|
Corn carryout
1,758
million bu.
68 million below the trade
|
Soybean carryout
300
million bu.
36 million below the trade
|
|
Wheat carryout
743
million bu.
4 million below the trade
|
World wheat stocks
280.82
million tonnes
Above the highest estimate
|
Stocks-to-use fell from 11.3 percent to 10.8 percent. That gives back about a third of October’s 1.6-point increase, so the balance sheet still has more cushion than it did in September. USDA cut its season-average farm price another 10 cents to $4.60, which is 15 cents below the $4.75 crop insurance harvest price. The yield cut was regional, so your state’s revision says more about your local basis than the national number does.
Stocks-to-use fell from 6.9 percent to 6.5 percent, the tightest of the three major crops. USDA raised its price forecast 10 cents to $12.10, still below the $12.63 harvest price. Soybean oil is the soft spot: USDA cut its oil price 2 cents to 68 cents per pound and trimmed domestic use 100 million pounds.
The all-wheat headline barely changed, but the classes moved in opposite directions. Hard red winter loosened 11 million bushels as USDA cut its exports again. USDA says HRW exports are now the second lowest on record. White wheat tightened 10 million bushels on stronger exports to Asia.
USDA cut 2027 beef production 155 million pounds on lower placements, but left its 2027 steer price unchanged at $238. It cut its fourth-quarter 2026 steer price to $220. On the hog side, USDA lowered its quarterly price forecasts $2 each from the fourth quarter of 2026 through the second quarter of 2027.
What to check on your own farm this week
None of the figures above are decisions on their own. These four checks are how some producers turn them into one.
The national cut was 1.6 bushels, but Illinois fell 8 and Minnesota rose 9. If your bushels are in a state where NASS cut yields, local buyers may compete harder for supply than the national figures suggest. If you’re in a state where yields went up, the opposite may apply.
Some growers may consider asking two or three buyers for their bids and comparing those basis levels with the same week in recent years, rather than relying on the national carryout.
Corn stocks-to-use is now 10.8 percent, down from 11.3 percent, but still above September’s 9.7 percent. The balance sheet has a little less cushion than last month, not less than before the October jump.
The test from last month still applies: pull the December-to-July corn spread, compare it with your storage cost per bushel, and do it on your own bushels. If the carry doesn’t cover your storage cost, holding grain unpriced is a bet on a price rally, not a marketing plan.
USDA’s season-average forecasts are $4.60 for corn and $12.10 for soybeans. The 2026 crop insurance harvest prices are $4.75 for corn and $12.63 for soybeans, both above their projected prices of $4.62 and $11.09, according to farmdoc daily.
These are different measures. The harvest price reflects the futures average during October. USDA’s figure is a forecast of the average price farmers will receive over the whole marketing year. If your production came in short, some growers may consider confirming with their crop insurance agent how the harvest price affects their revenue guarantee.
If you grow hard red winter, your class has loosened 25 million bushels in two months on weak exports. If you grow white wheat, your class tightened 10 million on strong exports to Asia.
For hogs, USDA lowered its forecast $2 for each quarter from the fourth quarter of 2026 through the second quarter of 2027. Some producers may consider checking their breakevens against those deferred quarters, not just the front month. For cattle, USDA lowered the 2027 beef supply but held its 2027 price, so check your marketing plan against both numbers.
- Corn came in smaller than expected. USDA cut the yield to 179.6 bushels per acre, right in the middle of the estimate range. Carryout was 1.758 billion bushels, down 91 million from October and 68 million below the 1.826 billion the trade expected. Stocks-to-use fell from 11.3 percent to 10.8 percent.
- Illinois drove the corn cut. NASS lowered the Illinois yield 8 bushels to 200. By our estimate, that one state took about 88 million bushels out of a 141-million-bushel national cut. Minnesota went the other way: up 9 bushels to a record 204.
- Soybeans set a record and still got tighter. USDA raised the yield to a record 53.3 bushels, but that was below the 53.6 survey average. USDA also raised exports 25 million bushels, so carryout fell 15 million to 300 million, against 336 million expected.
- U.S. wheat barely moved. Carryout rose 3 million bushels to 743 million on lower food use. Within that, hard red winter stocks rose 11 million bushels while white wheat fell 10 million.
- Two world figures broke out of their ranges, in opposite directions. World soybean stocks came in at 123.50 million tonnes, below the lowest estimate of 124.4. World wheat stocks came in at 280.82 million, above the highest estimate of 278.6.
Tighter at home, looser abroad for wheat
In October, corn figures landed near the top of their ranges. This month, the U.S. figures moved the other way. When you place each November figure inside the survey’s own low-to-high range, the U.S. balance sheets fall in the lower part of what analysts expected. The world wheat number sits well above the whole range.
| Measure | November USDA | Survey range | Where it landed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corn yield | 179.6 | 173.2–185.5 | Middle |
| Corn production | 15,893 | 15,344–16,203 | Middle, upper half |
| Corn ending stocks | 1,758 | 1,698–1,956 | Lower quarter |
| Soybean yield | 53.3 | 53.1–55.0 | Near the bottom |
| Soybean production | 4,574 | 4,566–4,725 | Just above the low |
| Soybean ending stocks | 300 | 280–363 | Lower quarter |
| Wheat ending stocks | 743 | 730–769 | Lower third |
| World corn stocks | 281.94 | 280.0–283.7 | Middle |
| World soybean stocks | 123.50 | 124.4–126.2 | Below the bottom |
| World wheat stocks | 280.82 | 276.0–278.6 | Above the top |
Ending stocks are in million bushels for the United States and million tonnes for the world. Ranges are from the Dow Jones survey as reproduced by DTN. We calculated each figure’s position within its range.
Two details stand out. First, the corn yield landed in the middle of its range, 0.9 bushel under the average, yet corn carryout came in 68 million bushels below the average. The yield miss accounts for only 51 million bushels of that gap. The rest is demand: USDA cut feed and exports by less than the trade’s numbers implied.
Second, soybean production of 4.574 billion bushels was just 8 million above the lowest estimate in the survey. The trade expected a bigger crop and got the smallest increase anyone forecast. USDA then raised exports on top of that.
Headline scorecard: November WASDE actual vs estimates
The trade expectations below are Dow Jones survey averages as reproduced by DTN. They are not Ag Optimus forecasts.
| Measure | Oct USDA | Trade average | Nov USDA | Versus trade | Versus Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corn yield, bushels per acre | 181.2 | 180.5 | 179.6 | −0.9 | −1.6 |
| Corn production, million bushels | 16,034 | 15,944 | 15,893 | −51 | −141 |
| Corn harvested acres, millions | 88.5 | 88.5 | 88.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Corn ending stocks, million bushels | 1,849 | 1,826 | 1,758 | −68 | −91 |
| Soybean yield, bushels per acre | 53.1 | 53.6 | 53.3 | −0.3 | +0.2 |
| Soybean production, million bushels | 4,562 | 4,601 | 4,574 | −27 | +12 |
| Soybean harvested acres, millions | 85.9 | 85.9 | 85.9 | 0 | 0 |
| Soybean ending stocks, million bushels | 315 | 336 | 300 | −36 | −15 |
| Wheat ending stocks, million bushels | 740 | 747 | 743 | −4 | +3 |
| World corn stocks, million tonnes | 280.44 | 281.5 | 281.94 | +0.44 | +1.50 |
| World soybean stocks, million tonnes | 124.28 | 125.3 | 123.50 | −1.80 | −0.78 |
| World wheat stocks, million tonnes | 276.04 | 277.1 | 280.82 | +3.72 | +4.78 |
“Versus trade” is the November USDA estimate minus the survey average. “Versus Oct” is November minus October. Both are our calculations from the published figures. The Dow Jones table includes no wheat production estimate, so we don’t show a wheat production comparison. It also shows 2025/26 world stocks. There, world corn (308.3) and world wheat (282.9) both came in above the top of their ranges because USDA revised its old-crop estimates.
Corn: the full balance sheet
Figures are in million bushels, except acreage, yield and price. The 2025/26 column is the old-crop estimate as printed in the November report.
| Line item | 2025/26 | Oct 2026/27 | Nov 2026/27 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Planted acres, millions | 98.7 | 96.8 | 96.8 | 0 |
| Harvested acres, millions | 90.9 | 88.5 | 88.5 | 0 |
| Yield, bushels per acre | 186.5 | 181.2 | 179.6 | −1.6 |
| Beginning stocks | 1,551 | 2,095 | 2,095 | 0 |
| Production | 16,964 | 16,034 | 15,893 | −141 |
| Imports | 31 | 25 | 25 | 0 |
| Total supply | 18,546 | 18,154 | 18,013 | −141 |
| Feed and residual | 6,118 | 6,000 | 5,975 | −25 |
| Food, seed and industrial | 6,904 | 7,005 | 7,005 | 0 |
| of which ethanol and by-products | 5,548 | 5,650 | 5,650 | 0 |
| Exports | 3,429 | 3,300 | 3,275 | −25 |
| Total use | 16,451 | 16,305 | 16,255 | −50 |
| Ending stocks | 2,095 | 1,849 | 1,758 | −91 |
| Stocks-to-use | 12.7% | 11.3% | 10.8% | −0.5 pt |
| Season-average farm price, dollars per bushel | 4.16 | 4.70 | 4.60 | −0.10 |
Ethanol is part of food, seed and industrial use, so don’t count it again when adding up total use. Stocks-to-use is ending stocks divided by total use (our calculation). The 2025/26 feed, FSI and ethanol figures differ by 1 million bushels from the October report because USDA revised them.
Where the corn change came from
| Component | Effect on carryout, million bushels |
|---|---|
| Smaller production, entirely from yield | −141 |
| Lower feed and residual use | +25 |
| Lower exports | +25 |
| Net change in carryout | −91 |
USDA’s explanation is short: a smaller crop means less corn to feed, and exports were trimmed based on shipments and sales to date. Together the two demand cuts absorbed only 50 million of the 141-million-bushel production loss.
The yield cut by state
| State | Oct yield | Nov yield | Change | Approx. production effect, mb |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illinois | 208 | 200 | −8 | −88 |
| Nebraska | 188 | 184 | −4 | −38 |
| Indiana | 200 | 195 | −5 | −26 |
| Missouri | 181 | 176 | −5 | n/a |
| Michigan | 180 | 170 | −10 | n/a |
| Iowa | 219 | 219 | 0 | 0 |
| Ohio | 200 | 200 | 0 | 0 |
| South Dakota | 151 | 153 | +2 | n/a |
| Minnesota | 195 | 204 | +9 | +75 |
| United States | 181.2 | 179.6 | −1.6 | −141 |
Yields are from NASS Crop Production, November 10, 2026. For the production effect, we multiplied each state’s yield change by its harvested acres from NASS’s October briefing (Illinois 10.95 million, Nebraska 9.61 million, Indiana 5.16 million, Minnesota 8.30 million). Those are approximations, not NASS figures. “n/a” means we didn’t have a verified acreage figure for that state. NASS lists record yields in Arkansas, Iowa, Minnesota, Mississippi, Ohio, Tennessee and Virginia.
A 1.6-bushel national cut sounds small. In practice it was an 8-bushel cut in Illinois and a 9-bushel increase in Minnesota, with Iowa unchanged at a record 219. Two farms in neighboring states read the same report and face different situations.
In our view, the state number is the better guide to your local basis. A buyer in a state where NASS cut yields may need to bid harder for bushels than one in a state where yields rose, even with the same futures price. As always, your own scale tickets matter more than any USDA estimate.
Soybeans: the full balance sheet
Figures are in million bushels, except acreage, yield and price.
| Line item | 2025/26 | Oct 2026/27 | Nov 2026/27 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Planted acres, millions | 81.2 | 86.9 | 86.9 | 0 |
| Harvested acres, millions | 80.4 | 85.9 | 85.9 | 0 |
| Yield, bushels per acre | 53.0 | 53.1 | 53.3 | +0.2 |
| Beginning stocks | 325 | 315 | 315 | 0 |
| Production | 4,261 | 4,562 | 4,574 | +12 |
| Imports | 22 | 25 | 25 | 0 |
| Total supply | 4,608 | 4,902 | 4,914 | +12 |
| Crush | 2,646 | 2,780 | 2,780 | 0 |
| Exports | 1,515 | 1,695 | 1,720 | +25 |
| Seed | 75 | 73 | 76 | +3 |
| Residual | 57 | 39 | 38 | −1 |
| Total use | 4,293 | 4,587 | 4,614 | +27 |
| Ending stocks | 315 | 315 | 300 | −15 |
| Stocks-to-use | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.5% | −0.4 pt |
| Season-average farm price, dollars per bushel | 10.50 | 12.00 | 12.10 | +0.10 |
Unlike last month, the November use components add exactly to USDA’s printed total of 4,614.
Where the soybean change came from
| Component | Effect on carryout, million bushels |
|---|---|
| Larger production | +12 |
| Higher exports | −25 |
| Higher seed use | −3 |
| Lower residual | +1 |
| Net change in carryout | −15 |
USDA said higher yields in Minnesota, Iowa, South Dakota and Nebraska account for most of the production gain, partly offset by lower output in Illinois, Kansas, Missouri and Arkansas. State yields show the same split as corn: Minnesota rose 5 bushels to 54, Iowa rose 2 to 65 and Nebraska rose 3 to 62, while Illinois fell 4 to 64. USDA raised exports “based on larger supplies and early season export pace.”
The product side, which the headline misses
- Soybean oil: beginning stocks were revised down 199 million pounds to 1.458 billion, and food, feed and other industrial use was cut 100 million pounds. Ending stocks fall from 1.797 billion to 1.698 billion pounds. Biofuel use holds at 17.800 billion pounds. The price forecast drops 2 cents to 68 cents per pound.
- Soybean meal: beginning stocks were revised down 117,000 short tons to 333,000, and domestic use was trimmed to 44.033 million short tons. Ending stocks fall from 450,000 to 400,000 short tons. Exports hold at 22.7 million short tons, and the price holds at $340.
- What it means: both product changes start with old-crop revisions rather than new-crop demand. The 100-million-pound cut in domestic oil use is the one new-crop demand change, and it lines up with the lower oil price.
Wheat: a small change on top, opposite moves underneath
Figures are in million bushels, except acreage, yield and price. The crop did not change. The only all-wheat change was a 3-million-bushel cut in food use.
| Line item | Oct 2026/27 | Nov 2026/27 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Planted acres, millions | 42.5 | 42.5 | 0 |
| Harvested acres, millions | 31.9 | 31.9 | 0 |
| Yield, bushels per acre | 48.1 | 48.1 | 0 |
| Beginning stocks | 920 | 920 | 0 |
| Production | 1,534 | 1,534 | 0 |
| Imports | 145 | 145 | 0 |
| Total supply | 2,599 | 2,599 | 0 |
| Food | 960 | 957 | −3 |
| Seed | 59 | 59 | 0 |
| Feed and residual | 90 | 90 | 0 |
| Domestic use | 1,109 | 1,106 | −3 |
| Exports | 750 | 750 | 0 |
| Total use | 1,859 | 1,856 | −3 |
| Ending stocks | 740 | 743 | +3 |
| Stocks-to-use | 39.8% | 40.0% | +0.2 pt |
| Season-average farm price, dollars per bushel | 6.30 | 6.20 | −0.10 |
USDA cut food use after the NASS Flour Milling Products report showed a 2 percent year-over-year drop in wheat ground for flour in the July through September quarter. Ending stocks are still 19 percent below last year, according to USDA.
Wheat ending stocks by class
| Class | October | November | Change | Nov exports |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hard red winter | 333 | 344 | +11 | 165 |
| Hard red spring | 197 | 198 | +1 | 225 |
| Soft red winter | 105 | 106 | +1 | 100 |
| White | 80 | 70 | −10 | 235 |
| Durum | 24 | 24 | 0 | 25 |
| All wheat | 740 | 743 | +3 | 750 |
The class figures add to 742, against USDA’s printed all-wheat total of 743, because of rounding. Last month they added to 739 against 740.
USDA left total exports unchanged but moved bushels between classes. It raised white wheat exports on strong sales and shipments to Asia, where white wheat is priced competitively, and lowered hard red winter exports on weak sales. USDA says HRW exports are now the second lowest on record.
This is the second straight month in which the export changes fell mainly on hard red winter. HRW stocks have now risen from 319 million bushels in September to 344 million, 25 million in two reports. If you grow HRW, your class has loosened far more than the all-wheat headline shows.
What moved the world numbers
Figures are in million tonnes, 2026/27. Two of the three world stock figures broke out of their ranges, so here’s what changed underneath each one.
| Item | October | November | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| World wheat stocks | 276.04 | 280.82 | +4.78 |
| World wheat stocks excluding China | 156.83 | 161.61 | +4.78 |
| World wheat production | 822.39 | 827.51 | +5.12 |
| Argentina wheat production | 21.50 | 23.00 | +1.50 |
| Australia wheat production | 31.00 | 32.50 | +1.50 |
| Kazakhstan wheat production | 15.00 | 15.80 | +0.80 |
| Russia wheat exports | 40.00 | 39.00 | −1.00 |
| Ukraine wheat exports | 12.50 | 11.50 | −1.00 |
| Russia / Ukraine wheat ending stocks | 19.09 / 6.10 | 20.09 / 7.30 | +1.00 / +1.20 |
| World soybean stocks | 124.28 | 123.50 | −0.78 |
| United States soybean stocks | 8.57 | 8.17 | −0.40 |
| Argentina soybean exports / stocks | 6.45 / 24.07 | 6.75 / 23.74 | +0.30 / −0.33 |
| Brazil soybean production | 186.00 | 186.00 | 0 |
| China soybean imports | 115.00 | 115.00 | 0 |
| World corn stocks | 280.44 | 281.94 | +1.50 |
| World corn stocks excluding China | 115.31 | 114.99 | −0.32 |
| China corn stocks | 165.13 | 166.95 | +1.82 |
| Argentina corn production / exports | 55.00 / 38.00 | 57.00 / 40.00 | +2.00 / +2.00 |
| Brazil corn production | 139.00 | 141.00 | +2.00 |
| Ukraine corn exports / stocks | 22.00 / 5.53 | 20.00 / 7.53 | −2.00 / +2.00 |
| South Africa corn production | 16.50 | 15.00 | −1.50 |
| European Union corn production | 48.00 | 47.50 | −0.50 |
All figures are from WASDE-677: world wheat on pages 18–19, world corn on pages 22–23 and world soybeans on page 28.
Russia and Ukraine accounted for almost half of the world wheat build. Their stocks rose a combined 2.20 million tonnes after USDA cut their exports, blaming the conflict in the Black Sea region for keeping shipments below long-term averages. That wheat is still in the region, not out of the market, and its path to buyers depends on the same shipping conditions. Higher stocks in Argentina, Kazakhstan and Australia added most of the rest.
World corn reversed October’s pattern. Last month, every bit of the world corn build was outside China. This month, world stocks rose 1.50 million tonnes, but stocks excluding China fell 0.32 million. China’s stocks rose 1.82 million on lower feed use, and those reserves rarely reach the export market. The headline increase overstates the corn actually available to trade.
World soybeans tightened from the exporter side. Nearly all of the 0.78-million-tonne decline came from the United States (−0.40) and Argentina (−0.33). USDA held Brazil at 186 million tonnes and China’s imports at 115 million. South American weather now matters more for soybeans than this report.
Cattle and hogs: what USDA changed
Production is in million pounds and prices in dollars per hundredweight. The October quarterly prices for the fourth quarter of 2026 are our calculations from USDA’s annual averages. The October quarterly hog prices for 2027 come from DTN’s report summary.
| Item | October | November | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Beef production, 2026 | 24,802 | 24,762 | −40 |
| Beef production, 2027 | 24,675 | 24,520 | −155 |
| Steer price, 2026 annual | 237.56 | 236.31 | −1.25 |
| Steer price, Q4 2026 | 225 | 220 | −5 |
| Steer price, 2027 annual | 238 | 238 | 0 |
| Steer price, Q1 / Q2 / Q3 2027 | 235 / 235 / 240 | 235 / 235 / 240 | 0 |
| Beef imports, 2026 | 6,347 | 6,436 | +89 |
| Beef exports, 2026 / 2027 | 2,343 / 2,325 | 2,344 / 2,330 | +1 / +5 |
| Pork production, 2026 | 27,621 | 27,656 | +35 |
| Pork production, 2027 | 27,825 | 27,825 | 0 |
| Barrows and gilts, 2026 annual | 63.79 | 63.29 | −0.50 |
| Barrows and gilts, Q4 2026 | 55 | 53 | −2 |
| Barrows and gilts, 2027 annual | 63 | 62 | −1 |
| Barrows and gilts, Q1 / Q2 / Q3 2027 | 60 / 65 / 68 | 58 / 63 / 68 | −2 / −2 / 0 |
| Pork exports, 2026 / 2027 | 7,050 / 7,095 | 6,979 / 7,040 | −71 / −55 |
Steer prices are the 5-Area direct, all-grades price. Barrow and gilt prices are the National Daily Direct, producer-sold net price on a live basis. The production figures in the quarterly table are commercial production (WASDE-677, page 31). The trade figures come from the meats supply and use table (page 32).
USDA gave two reasons for the beef changes. In the fourth quarter of 2026, fed cattle are being marketed more slowly and at lighter dressed weights. For 2027, lower-than-expected placements in the second half of 2026 are expected to reduce marketings in the first half of the year. USDA lowered the 2026 cattle price “on recent weakness in prices due to a readily available supply of market-ready cattle” and left 2027 unchanged. It raised beef imports 89 million pounds on strong U.S. demand and lower domestic production.
For hogs, USDA pointed to “persistent weakness in the pork cutout” and higher production as the reasons for the lower forecasts through the first half of 2027. It cut pork exports for both years on weaker shipments to Western Hemisphere markets and more global competition.
The surprises, ranked
- World wheat stocks finished above the top of the range. The figure was 280.82 million tonnes, against a highest estimate of 278.6. The 3.72-million-tonne miss against the average is the largest of any world figure this month.
- World soybean stocks finished below the bottom of the range. The figure was 123.50 million tonnes, against a lowest estimate of 124.4 and an average of 125.3.
- Corn carryout came in 68 million bushels below the average on a mid-range yield. Yield missed by 0.9 bushels, about 51 million bushels of production. The other 17 million came from USDA keeping demand higher than the trade expected.
- Soybean carryout came in 36 million bushels below the average. Production missed by 27 million and the export increase added the rest. Carryout landed in the lower quarter of a range that ran from 280 to 363.
- U.S. wheat ran close to expectations. Carryout was 4 million bushels below the average, the smallest miss among the U.S. figures.
These misses are in different units (bushels and tonnes) and are ranked by how surprising each was relative to its range. This is not a statistical ranking of how much each one matters.
In our October scorecard, we asked whether a yield that far above expectations would hold as combines finished. It didn’t fully hold. USDA gave back 1.6 of the 2.7 bushels it added in October, and stocks-to-use gave back 0.5 of the 1.6 points it gained.
We also pointed out that October’s whole world corn build sat outside China, in grain that can actually be traded. This month that reversed, as explained in the world section above. Last month’s finding was accurate, but it described one report, not a trend.
The Pro Farmer crop tour gap narrowed. The August tour put corn at 15.344 billion bushels on a 173.2-bushel yield. USDA now sits 549 million bushels and 6.4 bushels per acre above the tour, down from 690 million and 8.0 bushels in October. The tour’s numbers again match the bottom of the Dow Jones survey range exactly.
Next checkpoints
- Friday, November 13, 8:30 a.m. Eastern: weekly Export Sales. This was moved from Thursday for Veterans Day. USDA cut corn exports 25 million bushels and raised soybean exports 25 million, and the weekly sales pace will show whether those changes hold.
- Weekly Crop Progress, Mondays. Corn harvest was 81 percent done as of November 8, against an 86 percent average, and Iowa was at 72 percent against 89 percent (Barchart). The unharvested acres are where the final yield is still being decided.
- Thursday, December 10, 2026: the next WASDE. In most years, December makes few changes to the U.S. corn and soybean crops, so the export and world lines usually carry the report.
- Tuesday, January 12, 2027: the January WASDE. NASS says the Crop Production 2026 Summary will include individual state estimates for the smaller corn states, which are grouped together this month. That summary is the last word on the 2026 yield.
The primary tables use the Dow Jones survey averages and ranges as reproduced by DTN, because they are named, dated and publicly checkable. This is the same source of record we used in October.
Two other surveys were published before the report. They differ slightly from Dow Jones, and we don’t blend them. They appear in their own table below so you can compare them yourself. The USDA figures are the same in every comparison.
The alternate expectations sets, kept separate
The Bloomberg figures come from Pro Farmer’s November 6 preview. The Reuters figures come from a Reuters report republished by Zawya on November 9–10. Blank cells mean that survey didn’t publish the figure.
| Measure | Bloomberg avg | Bloomberg range | Reuters avg | Nov USDA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corn yield, bushels per acre | 180.6 | — | — | 179.6 |
| Corn production, million bushels | 15,979 | — | 15,962 | 15,893 |
| Corn ending stocks, million bushels | 1,846.2 | — | — | 1,758 |
| Soybean yield, bushels per acre | 53.5 | 53–55 | — | 53.3 |
| Soybean production, million bushels | — | — | 4,597 | 4,574 |
| Soybean ending stocks, million bushels | 332.2 | 280–404 | — | 300 |
| Wheat ending stocks, million bushels | 744.1 | — | — | 743 |
These sets all point the same way as the Dow Jones survey. USDA came in below the average on corn production, corn stocks, soybean production and soybean stocks, whichever survey you use. The Bloomberg soybean stocks range ran up to 404 million, much wider than the Dow Jones high of 363.
Frequently asked questions
USDA lowered the 2026 corn yield 1.6 bushels to 179.6 bushels per acre, cutting production 141 million bushels to 15.893 billion. It reduced feed and residual use 25 million bushels to 5.975 billion and exports 25 million to 3.275 billion. Ending stocks fell 91 million bushels to 1.758 billion, 68 million below the Dow Jones survey average of 1.826 billion. The season-average farm price was cut 10 cents to $4.60.
The state yields show the cut was concentrated in the eastern and southern Corn Belt. NASS lowered Illinois 8 bushels to 200, Indiana 5 to 195, Missouri 5 to 176 and Nebraska 4 to 184. Minnesota rose 9 bushels to a record 204, and Iowa held at a record 219. By our estimate, using October harvested acres, Illinois alone accounted for about 88 million bushels of the 141-million-bushel national cut.
Because USDA raised demand by more than it raised supply. The record 53.3-bushel yield added 12 million bushels of production. USDA raised exports 25 million bushels and seed use 3 million, with residual down 1 million, so total use rose 27 million. Ending stocks fell 15 million bushels to 300 million, against a Dow Jones survey average of 336 million.
U.S. production and exports were unchanged. Food use was cut 3 million bushels, so ending stocks rose 3 million to 743 million, and the farm price was cut 10 cents to $6.20. By class, hard red winter stocks rose 11 million bushels on lower exports, while white wheat stocks fell 10 million on higher exports. World wheat stocks rose 4.78 million tonnes to 280.82 million, above the highest trade estimate.
For 2026/27, two: world soybean ending stocks at 123.50 million tonnes, below the lowest Dow Jones estimate of 124.4, and world wheat ending stocks at 280.82 million tonnes, above the highest estimate of 278.6. In the 2025/26 old-crop columns, USDA’s revised world corn and wheat stocks also landed above the top of their ranges.
USDA cut 2026 beef production 40 million pounds on slower fed cattle marketings and lighter weights, and cut 2027 production 155 million pounds on lower placements in the second half of 2026. It lowered the 2026 steer price to $236.31 per hundredweight, with the fourth quarter at $220, and left 2027 unchanged at $238. Beef imports for 2026 were raised 89 million pounds.
USDA raised 2026 pork production 35 million pounds on more market-ready hogs in the fourth quarter and left 2027 unchanged. It lowered the hog price forecast $2 per quarter from the fourth quarter of 2026 through the second quarter of 2027, putting the 2027 annual average at $62. Pork exports were cut 71 million pounds for 2026 and 55 million for 2027.
Thursday, December 10, 2026, at noon Eastern time. USDA has scheduled the following report for January 12, 2027.
Our brokers farm and feed too, so the conversation starts with your operation rather than with a chart. Have your expected production, what is already priced, your storage capacity and cost, and your delivery commitments handy.
Full WASDE tables and the report calendar are on our WASDE report page.
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Sources
- November United States Department of Agriculture estimates and October comparisons. United States Department of Agriculture, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, WASDE-677, November 10, 2026. U.S. wheat and wheat by class are on page 11, corn on page 12, soybeans and products on page 15, world wheat on pages 18–19, world corn on pages 22–23, world soybeans on page 28, and livestock on pages 31–32. Report landing page · November report PDF
- Yield, production, state yields and record notes. United States Department of Agriculture, National Agricultural Statistics Service, Crop Production, November 10, 2026. esmis.nal.usda.gov · November report PDF
- Primary pre-report trade averages and ranges. Dow Jones survey, reproduced by DTN, “USDA Lowers Corn Yield to 179.6 BPA, Drops Corn Production to 15.893 BB,” November 10, 2026, last updated 11:34 a.m. Central. dtnpf.com
- Bloomberg survey, kept separate and not used in the primary tables. Pro Farmer, “November WASDE: Why soybeans are the biggest wildcard,” Spencer Langford, November 6, 2026. profarmer.com
- Reuters production poll, kept separate and not used in the primary tables. Reuters, republished by Zawya, “CBOT soybeans, corn rise before USDA update; wheat declines,” November 9–10, 2026. zawya.com
- Crop insurance harvest and projected prices. farmdoc daily, University of Illinois, “2026 Crop Insurance Harvest Prices for Corn and Soybeans,” November 2026. farmdocdaily.illinois.edu
- Harvest pace as of November 8. Walsh Trading, “Walsh Daily Bullet Points 11/10,” via Barchart, November 10, 2026, citing USDA Crop Progress. barchart.com
- Prior-month comparisons, crop tour figures and September HRW stocks. Ag Optimus, “October WASDE Actual vs. Estimates: Full Scorecard,” October 10, 2026. agoptimus.com
Methodology: Trade expectations in the primary tables are the Dow Jones pre-report survey averages and ranges as reproduced by DTN on November 10, 2026. They are not Ag Optimus forecasts. USDA figures are from WASDE-677 and the accompanying NASS Crop Production report, both released November 10, 2026. “Versus trade” is the November USDA estimate minus the survey average, and “versus October” is November minus October. Position within the range is (USDA − low) ÷ (high − low). We calculated position within the range, stocks-to-use, the carryout breakdowns, state production effects and the October quarterly livestock prices from USDA’s published figures, which may contain rounding differences. Where the components and USDA’s printed total disagree, we use the printed total and say so. “Actual” means the November USDA estimate, not a final harvest result, and these figures are subject to revision.
What is not included: This audit leaves out futures price reaction, post-report positioning data and local basis. CME final settlements for November 10 had not been posted when we wrote it, and we don’t substitute intraday quotes for settlement prices.
Disclosure: This material is for general educational and informational purposes only. It reflects the opinion of Ag Optimus where marked. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any futures contract, option, cash contract or other financial product, and it is not individualized marketing, hedging, tax or legal advice. Trading futures, options and swaps involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed funds deposited.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. USDA does not endorse, certify or approve this analysis, Ag Optimus or Optimus Futures LLC, and our use of USDA data does not imply any such endorsement. Optimus Futures does not maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Rule 1.71. Ag Optimus is a registered DBA of Optimus Futures LLC [NFA ID 0481133]. All marketing and trading decisions are the producer’s own responsibility.
