Tuesday, November 10, 2026 · USDA reports released noon Eastern
USDA’s November reports came out at noon ET today.
USDA lowered U.S. corn and soybean ending stocks by more than analysts expected. Wheat barely moved. For livestock, USDA trimmed its cattle and hog price forecasts for the rest of 2026 and cut 2027 beef production.
Below are the numbers that matter, compared with October and with the analyst average (Dow Jones survey).
CORN
USDA’s yield cut was bigger than expected, and lower exports and feed use only partly offset it. Stocks dropped 91 million bushels.
| MEASURE | NOVEMBER | OCTOBER AND ANALYSTS |
|---|---|---|
| Yield | 179.6 bu./acre | October 181.2 · average 180.5 |
| Production | 15.893 billion bu. | down 141 million · average 15.944 |
| Exports | 3.275 billion bu. | down 25 million |
| Feed and residual | 5.975 billion bu. | down 25 million |
| Ethanol | 5.65 billion bu. | unchanged |
| Ending stocks | 1.758 billion bu. | October 1.849 · average 1.826 range 1.698 to 1.956 |
| Season-average farm price | $4.60 | down 10 cents |
| World ending stocks | 281.9 million metric tons |
October 280.4 · average 281.5 |
- USDA’s $4.60 average price is still 15 cents below the $4.75 crop insurance harvest price.
- December corn closed Monday at $4.39 1/2.
- Harvest was 81% done as of Nov. 8, versus an 86% average. Iowa was at 72%, versus 89%.
- Growers with unpriced bushels and bin space may consider comparing the board’s carry with their storage costs now that the supply estimate is smaller.
SOYBEANS
USDA raised the yield to a record, but by less than the trade expected, and raised exports. Instead of the increase analysts looked for, stocks went down.
| MEASURE | NOVEMBER | OCTOBER AND ANALYSTS |
|---|---|---|
| Yield | 53.3 bu./acre A RECORD |
October 53.1 · average 53.6 |
| Production | 4.574 billion bu. | up 12 million · average 4.601 |
| Exports | 1.72 billion bu. | up 25 million |
| Crush | 2.78 billion bu. | unchanged |
| Ending stocks | 300 million bu. | October 315 · average 336 range 280 to 363 |
| Season-average farm price | $12.10 | up 10 cents |
| Soybean meal | $340/ton | unchanged |
| Soybean oil | 68 cents/lb | down 2 cents |
| World ending stocks | 123.5 million metric tons |
October 124.3 · average 125.3 below the low end of estimates |
- USDA’s $12.10 price compares with the $12.63 insurance harvest price.
- Soybean harvest is 92% done, so most of the crop is already in the bin. That makes storage and timing the main decisions now.
WHEAT
Few changes for the U.S., but the world got bigger.
| MEASURE | NOVEMBER | OCTOBER AND ANALYSTS |
|---|---|---|
| U.S. production | 1.534 billion bu. | unchanged |
| U.S. exports | 750 million bu. | unchanged |
| U.S. ending stocks | 743 million bu. | up 3 million · average 747 |
| Season-average farm price | $6.20 | down 10 cents |
| World ending stocks | 280.8 million metric tons |
up 4.8 million · average 277.1 |
| Bigger crops | Argentina 23.0 Australia 32.5 |
from 21.5 million metric tons from 31.0 million metric tons |
| Smaller exports | Russia 39.0 Ukraine 11.5 |
from 40.0 million metric tons from 12.5 million metric tons |
- Winter wheat rated 49% good to excellent, up 5 points on the week.
- The Russia-Ukraine talks in Abu Dhabi this week are still the main headline risk for wheat.
CATTLE
USDA expects less beef in late 2026 and in 2027 because fewer cattle were placed on feed this year. It lowered its 2026 price forecast after the recent cash weakness.
| MEASURE | NOVEMBER | OCTOBER AND ANALYSTS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 beef production | 24.762 billion lb | down 40 million Fed cattle are being marketed more slowly and at lighter weights. |
| 2027 beef production | 24.520 billion lb | down 155 million, on lower placements in the second half of 2026 |
| 2026 steer price | $236.31/cwt | October $237.56 |
| 2027 steer price | $238/cwt | unchanged |
| Beef exports | — | raised slightly in 2026 and 2027 on demand in East Asia |
- USDA’s 2027 outlook didn’t change. Its 2026 cut reflects the market-ready cattle on hand now.
- Feedlots and cow-calf operators may consider comparing their own sale timing with the 2027 production drop USDA is now projecting.
HOGS
There are more hogs and less export demand.
| MEASURE | NOVEMBER | OCTOBER AND ANALYSTS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 pork production | 27.656 billion lb | up 35 million, on more market-ready hogs in the fourth quarter |
| 2026 hog price barrows and gilts |
$63.29/cwt | October $63.79 |
| 2027 hog price | $62/cwt | October $63 |
| Pork exports | 2026: 6.979 billion lb 2027: 7.040 billion lb |
lowered from 7.050 lowered from 7.095 on weaker Western Hemisphere shipments and more global competition |
- USDA lowered hog prices through the first half of 2027, citing a weak pork cutout and higher production.
- Producers may consider checking their breakevens against the deferred futures months, not just December.
WHAT’S NEXT
| Wed., Nov. 11 | Veterans Day. CME grain markets are open. |
| Fri., Nov. 13 | Weekly Export Sales, moved from Thursday for the holiday |
| Nov. 30 | Planned reopening of the Nogales, Ariz., cattle port |
Full WASDE tables and the report calendar: reports.agoptimus.com/wasde
Questions about how these numbers fit your marketing plan? Get in touch.
The Ag Optimus Team
- USDA WASDE, Nov. 10, 2026: https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/wasde1126.pdf
- DTN report summary and analyst survey: https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/news/article/2026/11/10/usda-releases-november-crop-wasde
- Crop insurance prices, farmdoc daily: https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2026/11/2026-crop-insurance-harvest-prices-for-corn-and-soybeans.html
- Crop progress, Successful Farming: https://www.agriculture.com/usda-crop-progress-report-november-9-2026-12245142
Ag Optimus is a DBA of Optimus Futures, LLC. This email is educational and reflects the opinion of Optimus Futures. It is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hedge. Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
