USDA put corn yield at 178.5 bushels per acre against a 178.1 trade average, with 2026/27 corn ending stocks at 1.567 billion bushels versus 1.533 expected. Soybean production came in at 4.535 billion bushels versus 4.501 expected, with ending stocks of 310 million. The largest surprise was a soybean yield increase to 52.8 when the trade expected a cut.
Corn yield, corn production, corn carryout, soybean yield, soybean production, soybean carryout. Every one landed above the pre-report consensus.
On the supply side of a balance sheet, above the estimate is the bearish direction. Six for six in the same direction is not a coincidence — it means the trade was positioned for a tighter report than it got, across both crops and across yield, production and stocks alike.
The one-minute producer read
Headline scorecard
Reading rule: for supply-side numbers, above the estimate is a bearish surprise and below is bullish.
| Measure | Aug USDA | Trade est. | Sep actual | vs. trade | vs. Aug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corn yield (bu/acre) | 180.7 | 178.1 | 178.5 | +0.4 | −2.2 |
| Corn production (bil bu) | 16.013 | ~15.78 | 15.800 | +0.02 | −0.213 |
| Corn ending stocks (bil bu) | 1.653 | 1.533 | 1.567 | +0.034 | −0.086 |
| Soybean yield (bu/acre) | 52.7 | 52.5 | 52.8 | +0.3 | +0.1 |
| Soybean production (bil bu) | 4.519 | 4.501 | 4.535 | +0.034 | +0.016 |
| Soybean ending stocks (mil bu) | 320 | 290–298 | 310 | +12 to +20 | −10 |
| U.S. wheat stocks (mil bu) | 717 | 718–720 | 717 | −1 to −3 | 0 |
| World corn stocks (mmt) | 274.66 | 271.9 | 272.10 | +0.20 | −2.56 |
| World soybean stocks (mmt) | 124.21 | 123.1 | 124.02 | +0.92 | −0.19 |
| World wheat stocks (mmt) | 273.25 | 273.0 | 276.29 | +3.29 | +3.04 |
Trade estimates are DTN/Dow Jones survey averages (primary) and Reuters survey averages cited by ADM Investor Services, September 9–10, 2026.
Ten days before this release, our weekly positioning report showed managed money holding a 52-week bullish extreme in soybeans and in Chicago wheat, plus its largest corn long of the run at 431,062 contracts. Commercial hedgers sat at or near their most-hedged reading of the year in all three.
Then every headline number in this report came in below consensus.
We wrote at the time that the question was no longer whether the rally continues, but what a 431,000-contract long does on a disappointing number. That is not a prediction we are claiming credit for — positioning does not forecast prices, and we said so then. What it does describe is how much money was leaning one way when the surprise arrived, which is the difference between a report landing on a balanced market and one landing on a crowded one.
Our guide to crowded positioning and scheduled reports covers what the research says about this — including the finding that a WASDE day carrying production estimates has historically produced corn price variance about seven times that of a normal day.
Pro Farmer’s August crop tour put the corn crop at 15.344 billion bushels on 173.2 bushels per acre, against USDA’s August figure of 16.013 billion on 180.7 — a gap of 669 million bushels, the widest in six years.
USDA moved 2.2 bushels toward the tour’s number. At 15.800 billion on 178.5, the gap is now 456 million bushels — narrower, but still 5.3 bushels per acre apart. Harvest results settle the remainder, not another estimate.
Corn: the full balance sheet
| Line item | 2025/26 | Aug 26/27 | Sep 26/27 | Change | Trade est. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Area planted (mil acres) | 98.8 | 96.7 | 96.8 | +0.1 | — |
| Area harvested (mil acres) | 91.3 | 88.6 | 88.5 | −0.1 | — |
| Yield (bu/acre) | 186.5 | 180.7 | 178.5 | −2.2 | 178.1 |
| Beginning stocks (mil bu) | 1,551 | 1,945 | 1,922 | −23 | — |
| Production (mil bu) | 17,021 | 16,013 | 15,800 | −213 | ~15,780 |
| Imports (mil bu) | 30 | 25 | 25 | 0 | — |
| Total supply (mil bu) | 18,602 | 17,983 | 17,747 | −236 | — |
| Feed and residual (mil bu) | 6,350 | 6,100 | 5,950 | −150 | — |
| Food, seed, industrial (mil bu) | 6,905 | 6,955 | 6,955 | 0 | — |
| of which ethanol | 5,550 | 5,600 | 5,600 | 0 | — |
| Exports (mil bu) | 3,425 | 3,275 | 3,275 | 0 | — |
| Total use (mil bu) | 16,680 | 16,330 | 16,180 | −150 | — |
| Ending stocks (mil bu) | 1,922 | 1,653 | 1,567 | −86 | 1,533 |
| Farm price ($/bu) | 4.15 | 4.50 | 4.80 | +0.30 | — |
Old-crop revisions: 2025/26 exports raised 25 million bushels to 3.425 billion, imports raised 2 million to 30, and ending stocks cut 23 million to 1.922 billion. That lower carry-in flows straight into new-crop beginning stocks.
Where the corn surprise came from
The yield cut was real. Carryout still beat consensus because of demand.
| Component | Effect on carryout |
|---|---|
| Yield cut of 2.2 bu and 0.1 M fewer harvested acres | −213 mb |
| Lower old-crop carry-in | −23 mb |
| Feed and residual cut | +150 mb |
| Exports, ethanol, food/seed/industrial | 0 |
| Net change | −86 mb |
The trade had penciled roughly 120 to 125 million bushels of tightening. It got 86. About 70% of the 213-million-bushel production cut was absorbed by the feed and residual reduction — a smaller crop means less residual, so the two move together. That single line is the whole reason a real supply cut read bearish against expectations.
Soybeans: the full balance sheet
| Line item | 2025/26 | Aug 26/27 | Sep 26/27 | Change | Trade est. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Area planted (mil acres) | 81.2 | 86.8 | 86.9 | +0.1 | — |
| Area harvested (mil acres) | 80.4 | 85.8 | 85.9 | +0.1 | — |
| Yield (bu/acre) | 53.0 | 52.7 | 52.8 | +0.1 | 52.5 |
| Beginning stocks (mil bu) | 325 | 325 | 325 | 0 | — |
| Production (mil bu) | 4,262 | 4,519 | 4,535 | +16 | 4,501 |
| Imports (mil bu) | 25 | 25 | 25 | 0 | — |
| Total supply (mil bu) | 4,612 | 4,869 | 4,885 | +16 | — |
| Crush (mil bu) | 2,655 | 2,780 | 2,780 | 0 | — |
| Exports (mil bu) | 1,520 | 1,660 | 1,685 | +25 | — |
| Seed and residual (mil bu) | 112 | 110 | 111 | +1 | — |
| Total use (mil bu) | 4,287 | 4,549 | 4,575 | +26 | — |
| Ending stocks (mil bu) | 325 | 320 | 310 | −10 | 290–298 |
| Farm price ($/bu) | 10.50 | 11.40 | 12.00 | +0.60 | — |
Where the soybean surprise came from
| Component | Effect on carryout |
|---|---|
| Yield raised and acres up — the trade expected production down 18 mb | +16 mb |
| Exports raised | −25 mb |
| Residual | −1 mb |
| Crush — held at a record 2.780 bb | 0 |
| Net change | −10 mb |
This is the report’s biggest directional miss. The trade expected a smaller crop; USDA delivered a larger one. Export demand absorbed more than the production increase — a 25-million-bushel raise against a 16-million-bushel supply add — but carryout still finished above both surveys. Stocks-to-use sits near 6.8%.
Wheat: unchanged at home, looser abroad
The U.S. wheat balance sheet did not move. Harvested area held at 32.1 million acres, yield at 47.8, production at 1.531 billion bushels, exports at 775 million, and ending stocks at 717 million — essentially in line with the 718 to 720 that the trade expected.
The move was global. World wheat ending stocks came in at 276.29 million tonnes against a 273.0 estimate and 273.25 in August — a 3.29-million-tonne surprise and the largest miss in the world numbers. USDA nonetheless raised the U.S. farm price 20 cents to $6.40 with no balance-sheet change behind it.
The surprises, ranked
One oddity worth noting: USDA raised every price forecast
Corn season-average farm price went to $4.80 from $4.50. Soybeans to $12.00 from $11.40 — the largest single revision in the report. Wheat to $6.40 from $6.20, with no balance-sheet change at all behind it.
That runs alongside balance sheets that came in looser than the trade expected. USDA’s price forecasts reflect marketing-year averages and the cash market to date, not just the carryout line, so the two are not strictly contradictory. But it is worth knowing that the price column and the stocks column pointed in different directions this month.
What to verify on your own farm
Frequently asked questions
What did the September 2026 WASDE say about corn?
USDA estimated 2026 corn yield at 178.5 bushels per acre and production at 15.800 billion bushels, with 2026/27 ending stocks of 1.567 billion. The trade had expected 178.1 bushels per acre and 1.533 billion bushels of carryout.
Did USDA cut the corn yield from August?
Yes. August’s estimate was 180.7 bushels per acre and September’s is 178.5, a 2.2-bushel cut. The trade expected a slightly larger cut, to about 178.1.
Why did corn carryout fall less than the yield cut implied?
USDA cut feed and residual use by 150 million bushels and left exports unchanged, so roughly 70% of the 213-million-bushel production decline was offset on the demand side. Ending stocks fell 86 million rather than the 120-plus the trade expected.
What did the September WASDE say about soybeans?
USDA raised soybean yield to 52.8 bushels per acre and production to 4.535 billion bushels against a 4.501 trade estimate. Ending stocks for 2026/27 are 310 million bushels, versus 320 million in August and roughly 290 to 298 million expected.
Was the September 2026 WASDE bullish or bearish?
Relative to expectations, both corn and soybean balance sheets came in looser than the trade anticipated — all six headline numbers landed above the consensus estimate, which is the bearish direction on the supply side. Relative to August, corn tightened by 86 million bushels and soybeans by 10 million. Market direction after a release also depends on demand, world stocks, positioning, and harvest evidence.
How does this compare with the Pro Farmer crop tour estimate?
Pro Farmer put the corn crop at 15.344 billion bushels on 173.2 bushels per acre in August, against USDA’s 16.013 billion on 180.7 — a 669-million-bushel gap. USDA’s September figure of 15.800 billion on 178.5 narrows that gap to 456 million bushels, or 5.3 bushels per acre. Harvest results settle the rest.
When is the next WASDE report?
The October 2026 WASDE and Crop Production reports are scheduled for October 9, 2026. Grain Stocks lands earlier, on September 30. Confirm both on the USDA release calendar.
Sources
- USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, WASDE-675, September 11, 2026. usda.gov
- USDA NASS Crop Production, September 11, 2026. nass.usda.gov
- USDA WASDE-674, August 12, 2026 — the August comparison throughout. usda.gov
- Reuters pre-report survey as cited by ADM Investor Services, September 9–10, 2026.
- DTN / Dow Jones pre-report survey, September 9–10, 2026.
Methodology: Trade estimates are third-party pre-report survey averages, not Ag Optimus forecasts. “Delta vs. trade” is USDA actual minus the survey average. On supply-side measures, above the estimate is the bearish direction. Balance-sheet line items are as published by USDA; small rounding differences between summed components and printed totals follow USDA’s own tables.
Disclosure: USDA does not endorse, certify, or approve this analysis, Ag Optimus, or Optimus Futures LLC, and the use of USDA data here does not imply any such endorsement. This material is provided for general information and education and is the opinion of Ag Optimus; it is not a recommendation to buy or sell any futures or options contract. Futures and options involve substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for every producer or investor. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Optimus Futures does not maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Rule 1.71. Ag Optimus is a registered DBA of Optimus Futures LLC [NFA ID 0481133]. All trading decisions remain yours.
