Author: Nathan Harris, Ag Optimus, Akron, IA Branch
Monday Morning Market Recap + COT Insights | WASDE Preview | April Drought & PRRS Developments
🔥 Quick Hits Recap:
- ✅ Productive U.S.–China trade talks
- ✅ WASDE report today at 11 AM
- 🚧 Screwworm shuts US/Mexico border
- 💥 Record-high cash cattle
- 🔥 Drought in WCB
- 🐖 PRRS impacting hog supply
- 🧾 Funds still long cattle/hogs, short wheat
- ⚡ Watch wheat if the China deal unfolds
🌍 Weekend Trade Talks Offer Relief
Trade negotiations between the U.S. and China were labeled “productive” over the weekend. A proposed reset of tariffs to pre-April 2nd levels could reopen the door for constructive dialogue.
📌 Key sticking point?
➡️ Non-tariff barriers, which must be addressed to meet Trump’s goals.
📊 Market response:
- Dow Jones up 1000+ points this morning
- Risk sentiment is rebounding for now
🚧 Border Disruption: US–Mexico Closed Again
The U.S./Mexico border has been shut down again due to a Screwworm outbreak.
⚠️ Livestock flows are halted—a key issue to watch in feeder and slaughter markets.
🌱 WASDE Report Drops at 11 AM
Today’s USDA WASDE report will set the tone for early April.
📝 Estimates (shown in tables below) may suggest:
- Big corn acreage increase
- Reductions in beans, wheat, and cotton
🔑 But as always, Yield will be the ultimate driver
💰 COT Data: Fund Flow Tells the Story
Released Friday, the COT report showed continued fund pressure in grains and renewed strength in livestock.
🌾 Grains:
- Corn: Now flat (neutral)
- Beans / Bean Oil: Lightly long
- Wheat / Meal: Heavily short
💬 My take and opinion: If a trade deal materializes, China may favor corn or wheat over soybeans. With funds sitting on record short wheat positions, that could ignite a significant reversal.
🐄 Livestock:
- Live Cattle & Lean Hogs:
- Still long and adding to positions
- Supported by record-high cash cattle markets
- PRRS (Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome) is adding pressure to the hog supply
Images: Courtesy of ADMIS
🌾 Weather Watch: Drought Expands
Drought conditions are worsening in the Western Corn Belt, adding an extra layer of risk to early planting and yield potential.
Did I miss anything?!?!
Let’s buckle up—this week could move fast.
Have a Great week!
Nathan
Have questions about your marketing strategy? Call Nathan today! 📞 712-435-7879