A surprising crop ratings report and more chatter about bean demand presented a higher open, and funds were buyers in the overnight session. Grains followed, with meal gaining slightly on soyoil. Trends of note include buy beans/sell corn and buy wheat/sell corn. By the morning profit-taking in wheat and fund selling in oilshare pulled prices off their highs. Soyoil futures and wheat are down the most.

US corn and bean demand goes its separate ways. US corn export lags, and for the wk ending 8/12 US exporters shipped 0.755 mmt vs. 0.745 mmt wk ago, and 1.139 mmt yr ago. China was in for 0.275. Wheat shipments are 4.885 mmt vs. 5.663 mmt yr ago. Bean export pace continues to impress with the eighth consecutive business announcement yesterday.

WEATHER – More benign with the 610 day cooler and wetter, with an 11/15 day chance of rainfall over the western cornbelt. A tropical storm will stay mostly confined to the east coast, while a cold front will bring the chance for rains over the plains this weekend. All areas will benefit from additional rainfall in the upcoming week or two, though it may not be enough to offset severe dryness in the west. Globally dry areas continue in the Black Sea.

The Soybean and Corn Advisor had an interesting article talking about concerns that the 21/22 planting season in Brazil could be delayed like last year due to a return of La Nina later this year, and thus a drier -than -normal weather pattern. The chance for La Nina from the Climate Prediction Center increased to 62% from 55% mo ago. Bean plantings may not start until sep. 10 in parts of Parana and Mato Grosso.

REPORTS
Crop progress:
Corn: 62% good/excellent, down 2%. Only 4 states showed improvement, namely Wisconsin (up 3%), North Dakota (up 3%), North Dakota (up 1%) and North Carolina (up 7%).
Dough stage: 73% Dented: 22%

spring wheat: 11% good/excellent, unchanged from wk ago, Idaho and Montana were down. Harvest is 58% vs. 38% wk ago, and vs. 28% yr ago.

beans: 57% good/excellent, down 3%, and the largest surprise to the market.

Pro Farmer Crop Tour:
South Dakota: 151.45 bpa vs. 178.0 bpa yr ago, and 169.5 bpa average. The average is down 15% from the 2020 tour. Pod bean counts are 996.8 pods/square foot, well under yr ago
Ohio: 185.06 bpa, yields are 10% above yr ago. Bean pods per square ft are 1,195.37, well over yr ago.

ANNOUNCEMENTS
France’s AgrMer states that they are showing uneven test weights from the current wheat harvest.

Russia’s IKAR stated that prices for wheat rose $20 last week.

Russia’s Ag Ministry said between August 18-24 the wheat export duty will drop to $30.31/mt from $31.00/mt.

Calls are as follows:
beans: 1-2 higher
meal: 2.50-3.00 higher
soyoil: 60-80 lower
corn: 2-3 lower
wheat: 10-12 lower

Outside markets feature a lower Dow, down 170 pts, with a firmer crude oil market trading up to $67.66/barrel. The US dollar trades firmer to 92.68.

Tech talk: November bean prices in the big picture have been a wide chop from $13.00 to $14.00. Post report the lower end of the range now moves back to $13.50, and prices are well bid heading higher from lower towards the $13.95/$14.00 level once more on the back of lower ratings and a bullish USDA report. Traders remain cautious but the price action is trending higher. Dec. meal prices are now slanted slightly higher from sideways, moving better support back to $355.00 and trendline resistance at $370.00 for the day. Look for the current range and trend to remain sideways, and meal prices could continue to rally, with a greater chance of also failing on strength. Dec soyoil is a wide 59c to 66c range, starting to move sideways. Dec soyoil should find support on a pullback to 60c/61c. This market has repeatedly had the ability to bounce back from its lows.

December corn is in a congestive phase, but has now established very good support at the 100 day moving average of $5.48 with a series of bottoms at $5.50, providing very good support. The spike high at $5.94 may stand for a bit, and would look for prices to consolidate from $5.65 – $5.85. End-users may be looking for a break down to $5.50-$5.55 to get something on given the rally on the back of the August 12 report, which essentially bumped prices towards the top end of current values. They may have to wait for a bit. December wheat chart price action remains firm with the recent new high placed at $7.86 1/2. Though prices are in a congestive phase, the pullbacks remain shallow indicating that the top may not be in. Lower support now moves up to $7.45/$7.50 on any break of size, and the target high is $8.00. The ADX is strengthening to 35, which is what bull markets need. There is no sign of a top yet, though prices are close to overbot at 69%.

DEC WHEAT/CORN: The chart for this spread is in bull market territory with at least two bull flags formed with upside exits. Lower support now moves up to 1.70c with current highs of 2.06c. Pullbacks here could continue to find very good support. There is no top, but the last peak was 2.35c should we go there, and as such is a higher target on continuing strength.

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