Mexico is making a concerted push for the United States to reopen its border to cattle imports, despite ongoing concerns over a flesh-eating screwworm outbreak that halted cross-border trade since May 2025. Next week, Mexico’s Agriculture Minister Julio Berdegué will meet U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins in Washington, aiming for an agreement that could resume cattle shipments—vital for ranchers and livestock markets on both sides.
What’s At Stake?
- Cattle exports crucial for Mexico: Ranchers in northern states like Sonora and Chihuahua face steep financial losses, forced to sell cattle domestically at steep discounts. Exports to the US are down by more than 70% in some regions, while domestic buyers pay far less than US feedlots would.
- US beef prices are climbing: The closure, combined with persistent drought, has pushed US retail beef prices up over 10% this year, increasing food inflation and squeezing consumers.
- Market supply impact: US feedlots, especially in Texas, traditionally fill up with Mexican cattle. Many now operate well below capacity, amplifying supply chain disruptions across the beef and futures markets.
Screwworm Threat and Control Efforts
- The New World screwworm, lethal to untreated livestock, has spread quickly through Mexico in 2025, with cases recently found less than 100 miles from the Texas border.
- Mexico is investing in sterile fly technology to combat the outbreak, with a new facility set to open by July 2026. The US has pledged $21 million for the effort.
- Both governments deploy rigorous animal inspection protocols, but US officials remain cautious, citing risk to national food security and the costly history of screwworm eradication.
Political and Economic Signals
- President Trump’s administration stresses herd protection and food security, while also floating expanded beef imports from Argentina and other sources to offset rising prices—a move frustrating many US ranchers.
- Mexico maintains that northern herds are safe, and affected cattle have been isolated to mitigate further risk.
Outlook and Market Implications
No clear sign exists that the USDA is ready to reopen the border, but talks next week are critical for ranchers, traders, and food supply chains on both sides. Commodity market participants should closely monitor negotiations, as resolution—or extended closure—will have material effects on cattle prices, futures contract dynamics, and overall market volatility.
Sources:
- https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/mexican-ag-minister-discuss-with-us-counterpart-opening-border-cattle-amid-2025-10-23/
- https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/mexico-hopes-eradicate-screwworm-with-new-sterile-fly-plant-2025-10-23/
- https://www.farmprogress.com/animal-health/missouri-on-the-ready-for-quick-screwworm-response
- https://www.kjzz.org/fronteras-desk/2025-10-23/in-sonora-ranchers-feel-the-squeeze-as-u-s-border-remains-shut-to-cattle
- https://westernagnetwork.com/mexican-border-closure-burdens-texas-feedyards-and-mexican-cattle-producers
- https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/21/trump-argentina-deal-beef-imports-prices-us-cattle-industry.html
- https://www.aphis.usda.gov/livestock-poultry-disease/cattle/ticks/screwworm/outbreak-central-america
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