Market Update: Massive Fund Liquidation Hits Ag Commodities – March 4 COT Report
📊 COT Report: Fund Selling Dominates the Market
- Friday’s Commitment of Traders (COT) report confirmed widespread fund liquidation across major ag commodities.
- Managed Money Sell-Off Totals (Week Ending March 4):
🔻 Corn: -117k contracts
🔻 Soybeans: -43k contracts
🔻 Live Cattle: -10k contracts
🔻 Lean Hogs: -33k contracts
🌍 Trade War Uncertainty Driving Risk-Off Attitude
- Fund managers are pulling back due to ongoing trade war concerns.
- New twist: China imposed 100% tariffs on Canada last Friday, raising fears of potential U.S. trade retaliation.
- Key Question: Will China target U.S. ag products with similar tariffs?
- Market Impact: Uncertainty is fueling liquidation in grain and livestock markets.
📉 Have Markets Stabilized After Heavy Selling?
- Fund selling has slowed since the middle of last week, and grains & livestock have found footing.
- Market Positioning:
✅ Funds are now in a “cleaner” position after being overloaded recently.
✅ Traders are less extreme in their positioning, allowing for more balanced price action. - Next Market Focus:
🔹 Growing season conditions
🔹 Planted acreage expectations
📊 WASDE Report – March 5 Expectations
- USDA’s WASDE report is released tomorrow at 11 AM (CST).
- Market Estimates:
📌 Corn Carryout: 1.51 billion bushels
📌 Soybean Carryout: 379 million bushels
📢 Final Thoughts: What to Watch This Week
✔ Corn & Soybeans: Will funds return after selling pressure eases?
✔ Trade War Uncertainty: Any updates on China’s tariffs could impact markets.
✔ Livestock Markets: Have funds finished liquidating, or is more selling ahead?
✔ WASDE Report Impact: Will USDA’s numbers match expectations or surprise traders?
💬 Have questions about market positioning? Call Nathtan 📞 712-435-7879