Macro and ags are lower today on the continuing uncertainty of the virus and its impact on global growth. Moderna came out with a statement that it was not sure it’s vaccine was enough to guard against the new variant, while Jerome Powell spoke to its impact on economic growth, which could slow in reaction. Stocks continue to fall down over 350 pts., and crude oil is trading down to new weekly lows at $67.06. Ags are lower led by wheat, beans, and soyoil futures. Energy weakness leads to weight in corn and soyoil, and oilshare.

Beans continue to suffer from lack of business, though inspections were good for beans yesterday. Still, marketing year-to-date for beans shows they are behind last year’s pace by 20%. China did take 93 tmt of corn and 119 tmt of sorghum. Inspections were good for beans but marketing- year -to date still is behind last yr by about 20%. For wheat, Egypt purchased 600,000 tmt in a tender this week, purchasing 240,000 tmt of Romanian, 240,000 tmt of Russian, and 120,000 tmt of Ukraine origin.

WEATHER – US plains remain too dry and in need of a good rainfall. Argentina saw better rains over the weekend in central and southern areas. Good playing progress should be noted over the next few weeks in terms of planting. Brazil’s best rains are in the north with limited coverage in the south. Australia is receiving more rain which is creating harvest delays and quality concerns.

REPORTS
Commitment-of-traders report (COT) futures / options combined disaggregated as of Nov 23:
beans: net long 49,386
meal: net long 53,559
soyoil: net long 82,354
corn: net long 366,691
wheat: net long 17,963

The weakness in the board was probably in part explained by the COT which showed funds getting longer everything.

DELIVERIES
Corn: 2 rjo put out 2
Soyoil: 106
Meal: 1
Wheat: 1,054 jp morgan put out 608 and AD stopped 858

Crop progress:
Last of the season:
winter wheat: 92% emerged, vs. 92% yr ago, 44% good/excellent

ANNOUNCEMENTS
Australia’s ABARE forecasts a record canola crop at 5.73 mmt vs. 4.52 mmt yr ago.

Egypt said that the country’s wheat reserves were enough to cover 5.1 mln tns of consumption.

Brazil’s gov. said the country’s energy council would keep biodiesel blending requirement for the full year at 10% for 2022.

Calls are as follows:
beans: 13-15 lower
meal: 3.20-3.60 lower
soyoil: 170-180 pts lower
corn: 5-7 lower
wheat: 14-17 lower

Outside markets have stocks falling to $67.06/barrel, with the US dollar at 96.25. Equities are off 300 pts.

Tech talk:
Soy: Jan bean direction is sideways in the big picture, but now extending its broad trading range to the downside by taking out recent lows of $12.40. Target low based on the violation of an uptrend line is $12.20, but ultimately a test of $12.00 cannot be ruled out as selling accelerates on chart weakness. Resistance now falls to $12.50-$12.60 once again as prices fall. Jan meal corrects from its peak high of $375.90 and tests major support which crosses at $338.00. Prices now trade under the 100 day moving average line at $345.00 which turns into resistance. A break of $338.00 turns the chart back towards $328.00/$330.00. Jan meal has now given back half of its gains from the low of $310.00 up to $375.00 which does not speak to an inherently strong market. Jan soyoil violates its key support point at 5750c, which has been a source of support outlined by its multiple lows. Taking out 5750c led directly to a test of the 200 day moving average at 56c. The 200 day moving average usually can support a break on a first time test, so would look for a bit of congestion trade from 56c to 58c.

Grains: March beans are back at recent lows at $5.70-$5.72. As such, today is a good day to see where value is located. If on weakness elsewhere this market can avoid taking out its recent low of $5.70 the next direction should be a retracement up. A close under $5.70 targets $5.55, however, as there is no back support to stop such a slide. End-users are likely to seek coverage here as it is also the 100 day moving average. March wheat falls from its ctr highs of $8.74 3/4 to a new low this AM of $8.02 1/2. Trade below $8.00 targets $7.75 which is the 38% Fib retracement on a rally from the starting point low of $6.25. Stronger markets typically will not go to 38% so quickly, so would expect $8.00 to offer up major support on this morning’s technical weakness.

JANUARY MEAL: The market appears to have set a temporary top at $375.00, and is now attempting to find a trading range low. It has traded down to a major support line at the low of $338.00. The uptrend has been strong at 35 ADX, which suggests that the low of the day should be able to hold. In the event that prices trade under $338.00, the target low becomes $328.00-$330.00, extremely close to the overall low of $310.00. As such, the bull will want to see key support hold today which would then sponsor a retracement trade back towards the middle of the range at $350.00.

ON THE CALENDAR:
Stats Canada will be released Friday with advertised estimates for canola at 12.8 mln mt vs. 19.48 mln mt yr ago. and all wheat at 21.2 mln mt vs. 34.18 mln mt yr ago.

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