Prices overnight generally were steady after a week of pressure. It is report day and the market has priced in a lot of bearish news, putting the onus on the bears to find something to take us much lower. If we go there, think there will be a lot of anxious end-users waiting to get something on the books. The liquidating length in corn and soyoil sets the sell-the – bearish expectations, (of the report), buy-the-fact scenario. We will see how this one plays out, but sometimes the August or September report can put in motion harvest lows. Soyoil futures broke on the back of weaker energies, and the fact that China announced they might sell soyoil from their reserves.

In the gulf, the latest update is that 90% or so of New Orleans has power, with elevators gearing up to get back on line. More bids seem to be coming back as elevators receive power.

For the report, the focus will again be on yields, and how good they are. FSA released failed and prevent plant acres early this week, which created more selling. The early release of the numbers created a bit of front running into tomorrow’s numbers. Advertised trade expectations are for bean and corn yields to get a bit larger, with production slightly higher. USDA could lower total bean use.

SA production is set for higher production as well for 21/22. Brazil’s weather is dry and warm to set the stage for bean planting now. Estimates for Brazil production is for another record at 144 mmt vs. 137.0 mmt this year. Argentina bean production could be an estimated 51 mmt vs. 46 mmt.

WEATHER – Warm and dry weather over the next two weeks will set the stage for a good weekend of harvest. 6/15 day puts rainfall in the northern, central, and Great Lakes into the east.

SA will get off to a fast start as conditions remain warm and dry. Argentina and Brazil could both use wetter weather.

REPORTS
Export sales:
beans: 20/21 net 148,200 tmt and 21/22 net 1.47 tmt (vs. an expected minus 100 tmt to 50,000 tmt and 21/22 net 1.0 tmt to 1.6 tmt)
meal: 20/21 net 60,700 tmt and 21/22 net 48,300 tmt (vs. an expected 0-100,000 tmt and 21/22 net 75-300,000 tmt)
soyoil: 20/21 net minus 1,600 and 21/22 net 100 (vs. an expected 0-10,000 tmt)
corn: 20/21 net minus 87,400 tmt and 21/22 net 905,800 tmt (vs. an expected minus 100 tmt -50,000 tmt and 21/22 net 600-1.2 tmt)
wheat: 21/22 net 388,400 tmt (21/22 net 200-450,000 tmt)

Sales were not expected to be good, but were decent for beans. Corn sales were neutral with wheat showing a decent amount of tenders. Product sales were low end.

DELIVERIES
Soyoil: 5

ANNOUNCEMENTS
Brazil’s Aboive forecast their 2021 domestic bean crush unchanged at 46.5 mmt, even with the gov. lowering the biodiesel blending mandate.

Agribusiness firms stated that SA farmers will likely face higher input costs this year. An Argentine based firm expected key planting areas will see 20% higher input costs which may impact yields. Corn input costs are estimated around $204/hectare, while soy costs are expected around $120/ha.

Calls are as follows:
beans: 3-5 higher
meal: 2.20-2.80 higher
soyoil: 10-15 lower
corn: 1 higher
wheat: 1-2 higher

Outside markets show crude firmer at $69.56/barrel, and the US dollar trading down to 92.33. Stocks are 110 pts higher.

Tech talk: November prices traded to $12.65 but the chart appears a bit sold out down here. Target low is still $12.55/$12.55, and we are trending down towards it. The market may need to come up for air a bit, however, in order to invite new selling. If the report is bearish and we hit the target, will be interesting to see if there is much down-side follow. The trend is still weak at 15 ADX, so if short may want to think about covering something in. The December meal turns higher from lower today after reaching a new low at $335.40. The firmer trade could lead to consolidation from $335.00-$355.00 if prices begin to recover. There is still no sign that the downside is complete, as this morning’s price rise over $340.00 merely shows stabilization from the bottom.

December soyoil prices reached a new low for the move down at 5590c. This chart now appears the most vulnerable to further lows, with a target of 54c traded back in June. December corn consolidates from $5.04 to $5.15, but the chart is still open to a further decline. However, trendline support is close by at $5.00/$5.02 should we go there. Would look for this benchmark to likely be tested at some point, followed by congestion trade around it. December wheat prices trade below $6.90, but does not find much follow-through. With the topping formation overhead, rallies back towards $7.00 may now be viewed as a selling opportunity.

DECEMBER CORN: Trading range low is $5.04 1/4, with resistance moving down to $5.25/$5.30. Given the steep down-trend, it would not take much to get prices over the top of the down-trend channel which would then lead to a trading range from $5.05 – $5.25/$5.30. New lows beget new lows, and so far the chart has not set off a positive signal that the low for the season has been met. Without a good reversal signal, would still look for a test of $5.00.

Receive Relevant and Timely Grain Market Reports that Matter!

Get updated twice a week with concise, direct information that you can use in grain trading, marketing, and farm management


Better yet, become a customer and get DAILY updates, fundamental, and technical, sent straight to your Inbox! Contact Us now to get started.

RISK DISCLAIMER: Trading in commodity interest products such as futures, options and otc swaps entails significant risks of loss which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. The placement of contingent orders by you or broker, or trading advisor, such as a stop-lossor stop-limitorder, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Long options strategies could lose their entire premium plus transactional costs. Short options strategies entail unlimited risk of loss plus transactional costs. The information presented represents the opinion of Ag Optimus. Past performance of actual trades or strategies cited herein is not necessarily indicative of future performance. Futures prices factor in the seasonal aspects of supply and demand. This communication may cite historic data and should not be taken to mean certain trades can produce dramatic profits year in and year out. This information does not imply customers have or will experience profits based on seasonal trades or trade data. All information, communications, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Optimus Futures, LLC (“Optimus”) shall be construed as, or is in the nature of, a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction. Optimus does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71. This email may include information produced by third parties. Material not labelled Optimus Futures should be considered to be third-party, and is provided for informational purposes only. Third-party material is from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed by Optimus Futures. Optimus Ag and Ag Optimus are registered dbas of Optimus Futures LLC [NFA ID 0481133] CONFIDENTIALITY NOTICE: Privileged/Confidential information may be contained in this message. If you are not the intended recipient, please notify the sender immediately and you must not use the message for any purpose nor disclose it to anyone. Communications on all mediums may be recorded.