Grain Market Analysis: Year-End COT Report Shows Mixed Fund Positions in Grains, Strong Long Bias in Livestock Heading into 2025

Nathan Harris, Ag Optimus, Akron, IA Branch

COT data attached, with managed money positioning shown in the table below.

Going into year end MM$ holds 160k net longs in corn, 67k net shorts in beans, and a heavy net short meal position (-96k).

On the livestock side of things, funds hold large net long exposure. As of 12/24, MM$ sits long 128k live cattle, 20k feeders and 121k lean hogs. The hogs have seen a significant correction since Thanksgiving, and charts show significant risk to the downside should the funds decide to run for the door. Net length in feeders is also near record levels, which makes me nervous going into the new year. Fundamentals are no doubt positive, but money flow can dominate our futures markets(opinion). Is the cattle feeder a bit complacent at these prices? Risk management of some sort is a good idea going into 2025 “just in case”.

Time flies in our business. We are excited to turn the page to 2025, sure to be filled with plentiful opportunity. Best wishes to you and your family as you celebrate New Years!

Have a great day!

Source:ADMIS

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