Agri Blog

AgOptimus on USDA WASDE Report – 6.9.23

US Corn Market Report

The 2023/24 projection for the US corn market indicates increased production and ending stocks compared to the 2022/23 estimate.

Corn Production:
Corn production is projected to rise from 13,730 million bushels in 2022/23 to 15,265 million bushels in 2023/24, boosted by a slight increase in area planted and yield per harvested acre. This growth in production is reflective of the increased yield per harvested acre (181.5 bushels in 2023/24 vs. 173.3 bushels in 2022/23). The USDA estimate from May to June remains unchanged.

Corn Exports:
Exports, which fell in 2022/23 to 1,725 million bushels, are projected to rebound to 2,100 million bushels in 2023/24. This increase in exports is indicative of a potential growth in the global demand for corn. The USDA estimate from May to June remains unchanged.

Ending Stocks:
Ending stocks, an important indicator of market balance, are expected to rise significantly, from 1,452 million bushels in 2022/23 to 2,257 million bushels in 2023/24. The surge in ending stocks implies a potential oversupply of corn in the 2023/24 crop year. The USDA ending stocks estimate increased from 2,222 m/bu in May to 2,257 m/bu in June.


US Wheat Market Report

The 2023/24 projection for the US wheat market reveals a slight increase in production, a reduction in exports, and a decrease in the average farm price compared to the 2022/23 estimate.

Wheat Production:
Wheat production is projected to rise slightly from 1,650 million bushels in 2022/23 to 1,665 million bushels in 2023/24, as a result of an increase in both planted area (49.9 million acres in 2023/24 vs. 45.7 million acres in 2022/23) and yield per harvested acre (44.9 bushels in 2023/24 vs. 46.5 bushels in 2022/23). USDA production estimates increased from May’s 1,659 m/bu to June’s 1,665 m/bu.

Wheat Exports:
Exports are projected to decrease from 775 million bushels in 2022/23 to 725 million bushels in 2023/24. This reduction suggests a potential decline in the global demand for US wheat. USDA estimate from May to June remains unchanged.

Ending Stocks:
Ending stocks are projected to fall from 598 million bushels in 2022/23 to 562 million bushels in 2023/24. The decrease in ending stocks indicates a potential tightening of the wheat supply in the coming year. USDA’s ending stocks estimates increased from May’s 556 m/bu to June’s 562 m/bu.


US Soybeans Market Report

The 2023/24 projections for the US soybean market show increased production, slightly higher domestic use, and a significant rise in ending stocks, along with a decrease in the average farm price compared to the 2022/23 estimate.

Soybean Production:
Soybean production is projected to increase from 4,276 million bushels in 2022/23 to 4,510 million bushels in 2023/24, primarily due to a slight increase in both area harvested and yield per harvested acre. USDA’s Production estimates did not change from May to June.

Soybean Exports:
Exports are projected to decrease slightly from 2,000 million bushels in 2022/23 to 1,975 million bushels in 2023/24, which indicates a potential slight decline in the global demand for US soybeans. USDA’s export estimates did not change from the May to June report.

Ending Stocks:
Ending stocks are projected to increase significantly from 230 million bushels in 2022/23 to 350 million bushels in 2023/24, suggesting a potential oversupply in the soybean market for the 2023/24 crop year. USDA increased ending stocks from May’s 335 m/bu to 350 m/bu in June.


Impact Factors:

As with other crops, soybean production and prices can be significantly influenced by weather conditions, disease outbreaks, and changes in government regulations. Even though this report does not specify these factors, it’s important to remain informed about potential threats such as soybean rust or weather anomalies that could impact yields.

Government policies related to agricultural subsidies, trade tariffs, or biofuel mandates can also significantly impact the soybean market. Thus, keeping a watchful eye on potential policy changes is crucial for anticipating market trends.

Remember, these projections are subject to change based on a variety of unpredictable factors, including weather, disease outbreaks, and changes in government policy.


Disclaimer:

The risk of loss in Commodity Interest trading is substantial. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Any content presented should be viewed as a solicitation and an inducement to conduct business with AgOptimus. Market information presented is believed to be accurate as of the time of publication. Trading and investment decisions should be made at your own risk and only with risk capital. Be advised the views and opinions expressed herein do not necessarily reflect the current views or positions of AgOptimus and are subject to change at any time.

The information contained herein has been primarily derived from the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, available at the following URL: https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde. To ensure the highest level of accuracy and comprehensiveness, we strongly encourage readers to directly refer to the original report.

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