Agri Blog

Ag Update 9/6/2024

Grains:
– Cotton export sales:
– 207,500 bales for current marketing year
– 8,400 bales for 2024-2025
– Cumulative sales: 4.648 million bales, down from 5.312 million bales last year and below 5-year average of 6.91 million bales
– Sales at 33% of USDA forecasts vs 5-year average of 53%

Corn:
– New crop sales: 72 million bushels
– Commitments: 442.5 million bushels, up 8% over last year
– USDA forecast up 17% from last year


Soybeans:
– Net cancelations of 8 million bushels on old crop
– Year-to-date commitments down 15%, USDA down 14%
– New crop production forecast: 4.615 billion bushels, up 26 million from USDA
– New crop ending stocks: 580 million bushels, up 20 million from USDA
– Wheat:
– No USDA production estimates next week

Cattle:
– Cattle killed: 124,000
– Choice boxed beef: $311.51, down $0.09
– Cash cattle prices: $180-$183, $2 lower

Other:
– Cocoa: December cocoa slightly higher
– Sugar: India to extend export ban for second year
– Crude oil: Stocks fell 6.9 million barrels vs expected 1 million
– Natural gas: Storage up 13 BCF vs expected 20-33 BCF
– Interest rates: Greater chance of 50 bps Fed cut in September (opinion)

Disclaimer: The risk of loss in Commodity Interest trading is substantial. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Any content presented should be viewed as a solicitation and an inducement to conduct business with AgOptimus. The market information presented is believed to be accurate as of the time of publication. Trading and investment decisions should be made at your own risk and only with risk capital. Be advised the views and opinions expressed herein do not necessarily reflect the current views or positions of AgOptimus and are subject to change at any time.

RECENT POSTS

LRP vs. Selling Futures: Understanding Capital Requirements

TL;DR — The Quick Read: LRP vs Selling Futures  The Decision: You need to protect your cattle's price. The two primary tools available are Selling Futures and Livestock Risk Protection (LRP). The Difference: Futures contracts are capital-intensive tools that require...

Is On-Farm Storage Free? The Hidden Costs of Holding Grain

TL;DR: The 30-Second Summary The Myth: "My bins are paid for, so storing grain is free." The Reality: High interest rates mean holding grain costs you money every day in "Opportunity Cost." The Math: If you have an operating note, holding corn costs roughly 3 cents...

How and Why Margin Calls Occur: A Producer’s Guide to Liquidity

TL;DR — The AgOptimus Executive Summary The Reality: Margin calls are liquidity events, not penalties. They occur because futures markets settle daily, while physical crops sell seasonally. The Mismatch: A margin call does not mean a hedge is failing. It often means...

How to Pick the Right Hedge Month for Your Cattle

TL;DR — How to Pick the Right Hedge Month for Your Cattle Match your hedge month to when cattle will likely finish, not when the board looks best today. Weather, health, and feed performance influence finish dates — build flexibility into your plan. If cattle slip or...