Prices were mixed overnight as beans led the way higher. Informa is out day and will update their estimate of US 2022 planted acres by crop. Corn prices are flat but wheat continues to head lower. The soy complex puts in a higher trade as oilshare is steady / better. Crude oil is higher which helps corn and soyoil, while firmer meal prices also continue. Money flows continue to come into the meal market and appear to be coming out of corn.

The Fed meeting offered up nothing that was not expected, saying that they would be prepared to adjust their stance as appropriate.

WEATHER – US weather continues to be unusual with warm temperatures in Kansas of 70 degrees and winds of 80-100 mph. NOAA will release new 30 and 90 day forecasts today, which is expected to show US weather warm and dry.

La Nina continues to be monitored in South America with some forecasters reporting that a possible ridge could be building in Argentina last this week, keeping eastern Argentina and southern Brazil warm and dry.

REPORTS
Export sales:
beans: 21/22 net 1.31 tmt and 22/23 net 140,000 tmt (vs. an expected 1.0 -1.8 mln mt)
meal: 21/22 net 95,600 tmt and 22/23 net 200 tmt (vs. an expected 100-300 tmt)
soyoil: 21/22 net 10,600 tmt (vs. an expected 5-30 tmt)
corn: 21/22 net 1.95 tmt and 2223 net 754,400 tmt (vs. an expected 1.9-2.9 tmt)
wheat: 21/22 net 650,600 tmt (vs. an expected 200-400 tmt)

Wheat: Sales a marketing yr high, up from prev. wk and the 4 wk ave. Increases primarily for Mexico and Japan.
Corn: a marketing yr high, up 72% from prev. wk and 74% vs. 4 wk ave. Increases primarily for Mexico and canada. No China in the mix.
Beans: down 20% vs. prev. wk. Increases primarily for China of 985,800 tmt, Spain, and Mexico. Exports remain primarily to China for 1,037,700 tmt.
Meal: Sales marketing yr low down 53% vs. prev. wk.
Soyoil: Sales up 99% vs. prev. wk but down 74% from 4-wk ave.

Weekly broiler hatchery report stated that egg sets were up 4% YOY, while broilers placed were up fractionally WOW.

ANNOUNCEMENTS
Brazil’s AgRural on Thursday forecast 21/22 corn production at 114.4 mmt, down 1.1 mmt vs. prev. projection.

Strategie Grains raised the estimate of EU wheat exports for 21/22 by more than 1 mln tonnes to 31.4 mln tonnes, as a fall in prices made French wheat more competitive.

Calls are as follows:
beans: 8-10 higher
meal: 1.80-2.20 higher
soyoil: 80-90 pts higher
corn: 1/2-1 higher
wheat: 2-3 lower

Outside markets lean firmer with the Dow up 200 pts. and crude oil trading to $72.11/barrel. The US dollar is weaker at 95.92. The Fed meeting resulted in no interest rate changes right now, but they did say it would accelerate the pace of their bond purchase taper.

Tech talk:
Soy: March beans turn higher from lower as prices chop back and forth. However, in the process the market is also placing a series of higher lows which creates new support and a new trendline. Pullbacks to $12.45 have now established new support, and the market trend has been higher. Until this line is broken the price action seems to want to operate in the $12.40-$12.95 space. Expect prices to trend towards the 100 / 200 day moving averages which cross from $12.85-$12.95. March meal could have reached a temporary peak at $380.00 and is now entering a congestion trade. Would look for further price congestion from $360.00-$380.00, and while prices have pulled back it still does not mean that the chart is finished on the upside. March soyoil trades higher from lower as the blow off low at 51c could mark a low in a 51c to 55c trading range. Look for further price recovery as the low of 51c matches lows set back in June, which also held for new highs. Good support moves back to 53c as prices head higher.

Grains: March wheat chart places a double low at $7.51 with a measurement target still below at $7.31. If short, the $7.30-$7.50 level could be a good place to begin to cover something in, as it was the measurement target of the topping formation. New lows beget new lows and so far the chart has yet to stabilize. Resistance for March wheat in Chicago moves down to $3.85 at the top, but also at $3.65 on a bounce. March corn is firmer establishing a congestive trading range from $5.75 – $5.85/$5.90. Prices still have trouble moving over the key resistance level of $5.97, but still prefer to be long in this market vs. being short, as each pullback to current lows shows promise of holding for an eventual trend over $6.00.

MARCH BEANS: The trading range in the large scope has been $12.00-$13.00, but since early November a new support line has formed which has not been violated. The ADX remains low at 12 which shows the lack of a clear uptrend or downtrend. Given that prices could not break trendline support in blue, (nor even approach the low), would look for upside follow-through towards key resistance at $12.85/$12.90. A break-out would come from any close over $13.00 which would then target $13.20-$13.30.

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