Prices started mixed in the night session but turned higher as traders remain cautious as far as selling given recent strength. Oilshare and soyoil futures remain firm. Bullish ideas for corn and wheat fuels fund buying which is triggered by strong technical buying activity yesterday. Funds purchased 20,000 contracts of corn, 10,000 wheat, and 7,000 beans yesterday. Wheat futures trade higher on active tenders, with Saudi Arabia buying a good chunk over the weekend. Good ethanol demand fuels corn to new highs.

Traders are preparing for the next USDA report which is November 9th. There are bullish ideas for grains, and neutral to negative for beans. In front of that report come more demand guesses. Stonex raised its estimate for the corn yield to 177.7 bpa from 176.6 bpa prev. Production was raised to 15.119 bln bu from 15.022 bln bu prev. Bean yield was raised to 51.9 bpa with production at 4.490 bln bu vs. 4.436 bln prev. What the USDA does with exports will be important as well. Demand for beans remains behind, with bean exports standing at only 10.864 mmt vs. 17.173 mmt yr ago, and trailing last year’s pace by 37% vs. 45% last week. Year-to-date corn inspections are now 5.422 mmt vs. 6.910 mmt accumulated yr ago.

WEATHER – US harvest weather now appears to be able to move forward with cooler but drier forecasts in place. 6/10 day forecast and 8/14 day maps look a bit warmer as well.

Global: Argentina had rains over the weekend which aided their crop planting and soil moisture deficits. South American weather is neutral, with good weather in Brazil. Weather leans bearish for the moment, but is largely ignored by funds.

REPORTS
Crop progress
beans: 79% vs. 73% wk ago. States furthest behind are Illinois and Indiana.
corn: 74% vs. 66% wk ago, and 81% yr ago. Delays were noted for the ECB, with Indiana and Ohio running behind.
winter wheat: 87% planted vs. 80% wk ago and 88% yr ago. 45% of the winter wheat crop was good /excellent

US census crush was 164.13 mln bu, slightly over trade expectations and vs. the August crush at 168.23 mln bu.

ANNOUNCEMENTS
Strategie Grains increased its monthly forecast for EU sunseed harvest by more than 200,000 tonnes to 10.16 mln tonnes. They lowered the rapeseed crop to 16.97 mln tonnes from 17.03 mln tonnes.

Ukraine farmers have sown nearly 6.1 mln acres of winter wheat for the 2022 harvest as of Nov 1, equating to 91% of the expected area of 6.66 mln hectares.

China urged its families to keep daily necessities in stock in case of emergencies, after covid and heavy rains caused a surge in vegetable prices and raised concerns about supply shortages.

Brazil’s AgRural reports that the 21/22 bean crop was 52% planted, the second fastest pace ever for sowing for this season.

DELIVERIES
Beans: 117

Calls are as follows:
beans: 6-8 higher
meal: 2.80-3.00 higher
soyoil: 7-10 higher
corn: 2 1/2-3 higher
wheat: 7-9 higher

Outside markets show stocks up 38 pts with crude oil trading to $83.02 /barrel and the US dollar at 93.99.

Tech talk:
Soy: Jan bean prices remain sideways and rangebound as a follower of grains. Overall the momentum lacks conviction though prices are congesting sideways from $12.20-$12.65. In the process, better support has moved up to $12.35, which was the low yesterday, and would look to possibly test $12.60. December meal moves on a congestive wedge pattern from solid lows of $330.00 to resistance at $335.00. However, since the market had rallied into this level would look for a possible upside exit and an eventual test of $340.00. The December soyoil chart remains congestive as well, but the boundaries are clearly defined here with a pullback to 6050c holding for a trade towards the middle of the overall range at 63c. While soyoil may be moving sideways from here, solid support for a market rally again to 65c is noted at 6030c, and again at 61c-6150c. If short, would think about covering something in on a hard break as this market continues its trend of sideways to higher trade.

Grains: Charts remain in strong uptrends for both corn and wheat. December corn prices achieve new highs again this morning and therefore cannot say the rally is over. Target high for Dec corn moves back to $5.95. Look for pullbacks to stay supported, and good support now moves up to $5.65 on a break of size. December wheat price action also has upside momentum which carries it through trendline resistance at $8.00. The placement of a new high pulls lower support up to $7.75, and on a pullback think it’s supported. The placement of a new high signals that we could see continued strength towards $8.20.

DECEMBER CORN: The break-out to the upside continues as prices congest and head higher. The characteristics of the bull market continue, namely seeing rising turnover, higher prices, and higher open interest. This will continue to support pullbacks. The market did break-out to the upside over $5.75 resistance, which now turns into support. Overall the trading range moves up to $5.45 to $5.75, but target highs are at $5.95, the last peak, and the strong price action and momentum suggests we likely go there. Expect that $5.95/$5.98 would be good resistance on another leg higher.

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