Prices continue to find pressure as harvest looms, but considering there is a September WASDE we are finally seeing some pricing and short-covering. Soyoil futures follow a higher palm oil direction, helping to support bean and oilshare. Corn has put in a bit of stability, while wheat appears to have factored in the sale from yesterday and is now in further congestion. KC wheat is weaker today against Chicago.

There are early reports of harvest progress in the Delta and deep south, and will see harvest progress in one week’s time. In terms of the Gulf, Ag. Sec. vilsack stated that major disruptions are likely to be avoided as companies slowly get up and running. The good news is that the Gulf power is very gradually coming back on and the river is opening, but there is still not a concrete time-frame as to when large facilities will open.

Gulf disruptions did find its way into yesterday’s export inspections. US exporters shipped just 275,700 tmt of corn vs 583 tmt prev. wk. Bean inspections were also low end, with just 68 tmt of beans. Exports out of the Gulf are reduced with most loadings now off the PNW. Egypt is in for an unspecified amount of wheat today. All eyes will be on what China purchases, but crushing margins have rebounded from steep losses in June, which should be helpful as they seek to cover needs for fall and winter.

In other stories, Brazil has now confirmed two cases of BSE and they suspended beef exports to its top customer. As part of the health pact between Brazil and China, the two countries will suspend trading immediately and allow China to decide when to import meat once more. The ministry said these cases were the fourth and fifth of atypical BSE detected in Brazil in 23 yrs.

WEATHER – Normal to above normal temperatures are across most areas with mostly dry weather over the next 7/10 days with no indications of frost in the long term mapes.

Global: Canada, EU, and Black Sea are mostly dry with limited rains. NOAA still is forecasting another La Nina event for SA. At this point, southern Brazil and Argentina are picking up rains.

REPORTS
Crop progress
corn: 59% good/excellent, down 1%, and vs. condition ratings of unchanged. Ohio fell 5% WOW, while Illinois, NEb., and Iowa were down 3%. Dough stage: 95%. Dented: 74%. Mature: 21%.

beans: 57% good/excellent, up 1%, and vs. 65% yr ago. Illinois was down 6%, and Ohio down 4%. Setting pods: 96% vs. 93% wk ago. Dropping leaves: 18% up 9% from last week.

spring wheat: 95% harvested vs. 80% yr ago.

winter wheat: 5% planted.

Stats Canada quarterly stocks as of July 31:
canola: 1.767 mmt (vs. an expected 1.2 mmt vs. 3.13 mmt yr ago)
all wheat: 5.705 mmt (vs. an expected 4.8 mmt vs. 5.49 mmt yr ago)

Gist of the report is bullish for canola, bearish for wheat.

ANNOUNCEMENTS
USDA Attache sees China 21/22 bean imports at 101 mln tonnes, up 3 mmt vs. the prev. year. The increase is based on growing meal feed use, lower bean production, and limited imports of rapeseed. Bean production for 21/22 is forecast 0.6 mmt lower than 20/21 as farmers switched bean acreage in corn in response to high corn price.

India has raised the price it would pay to buy new-season wheat from local farmers by 2% to 2,015 rupees/100 kg, the gov. announced, in a move to placate farmers and encourage them to plant more.

India’s imports of edible oil could fall to the lowest in six yrs, contracting for a second straight year due to the virus and high prices.

Argentina’s Ag Ministry estimated 462,300 mt of 20/21 bean sales over the past seven days, bringing the total to 28.9 mln mt for 20/21 vs. 30.8 mln mt yr ago.

DELIVERIES
wheat: 31
soyoil: 2

Calls are as follows:
beans: 5-7 higher
meal: 1.00 lower
soyoil: 60-80 higher
corn: 2-3 higher
wheat: mixed/firm

Outside markets show stocks up 27 pts with crude oil trading to $$68.68/barrel with the US dollar at 92.47.

Tech talk: November beans build on gains from $12.70 – $12.75, and it appears the chart is beginning to find a bottom, although the rally is fairly tame. However, there are five lows in place at $12.70, so feels like the next direction is firmer back towards $13.00. The WASDE may be the factor to break those lows if it’s more bearish than expected, and finally target $12.55. The December meal chart is still open to a target low of $330.00 given its test of $336.40. Charts are slightly oversold, and if needing to price would probably take advantage since we sit in front of a USDA report. Dec. meal range for now is $336.00-$355.00, a top that has been revised lower. December soyoil futures recover from major support at 5750c, and the chart suggests retracement back towards 60c again. Prices are locked and loaded sideways from 5750c to 62c, but breaks are still buying opportunities here.

December corn trades right to channel support which is now a double low at $5.10 3/4, with major support at $5.07 3/4 and then $5.00. The path of least resistance is still lower here, with slightly oversold conditions. Dec corn may have to come up for air, but new resistance overhead at $5.28/$5.30 also corresponds with the top of a down-trend channel, and could potentially hold a rally in check. December wheat continues its sideways congestion trade from $7.01-$7.50, perfect for straddling or strangling. Chart price action remains sideways, and could sell once prices do break $7.00. Until then, being short at the bottom of this trading range is a tough go.

DECEMBER CORN: The path of least resistance turns lower, though the ADX is still featuring a weak trend of only 16, with a slightly oversold status of 35%. Conditions have to get more oversold than this to warrant a bounce. The market was refusing to move higher, while lower prices slid easily. Traders were therefore looking for points of long liquidation, having sold around 10K yesterday to bring them down to an estimated 180K net combined futures /options long. The new down-trend channel is now directing traffic, and new resistance has now formed at $5.28/$5.30 as prices target new lows. Would look for a rally towards $5.20/$5.25 to still see pressure, and for a likely target low of $5.00 to finally be attained. Look for pieces to operate in the downtrend channel, and would need closure over the top of the channel to finally show some stabilization.

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