SPREADS
August oilshare trades to 44.82% while crush trades up to 82c/bu. Jly/Nov bean inverse reached a six week low trading down to 1.45 1/2c. July/Dec meal trades from a $2.80 inverse down to 0.70c carry. July/Dec corn trades from 1.08c inverse to 1.11 3/4c. Sep/Dec corn trades down to 23 1/4c from 24 1/2c inverse. July/wheat corn trades from e 1/4c to 11 1/4c where it closes. Jly/Dec wheat trades from 9 1/4c to 10 1/4c carry.
PALM OIL – August up 202 pts. 5% higher as dry weather in the US and Canadian areas redacted crop expectations, and reduced crops in SA promoted worries over global soyoil supplies.
NEWS
Stocks are up 70 pts with crude trading up to $68.48/barrel and the US dollar at 90.24.
Calls are as follows:
beans: 8-10 higher
meal: steady
soyoil: 110-120 pts higher
corn: steady
wheat: 5-7 higher
canola: 9.00-9.50 higher
BUSINESS
No business reported.
TECHNICALS
July corn: The ctr high is $7.35 1/2 and the major direction is now sideways higher after breaking down to $6.02 with a strong comeback. If prices can open and exceed the high yesterday at $6.96 3/4 look to test $6.98/$7.00. Given that the market did not fall apart on the ratings, would say there is a good chance that we do test $7.00, as a weaker market would have traded back down to $6.70 or lower. Overall trading range appears to be from $6.60 – $7.00 or higher.
first support: $6.83/$6.84
resistance: $6.97/$7.00
possible range; much the same
July wheat: The market closed in the positive and right at the higher end of the trading range, which brings support back to $6.80 and suggests we could trend higher after the open and into the $7.10/$7.20 level. Would look for pullbacks to see support, and the lower end of the trading range moves up to $6.75 should we go there. A more friendly “v” shaped bottom has formed, and in the past this has led to higher prices. A trade past $7.02 opens the door for a quick rally towards $7.10/ 7.12.
first support: $6.90-$6.93
resistance: $7.05/$7.15
possible range: much the same
July beans: The major direction is sideways/higher, and would look for a pullback to $15.45 to probably provide a place of support for prices to gather steam and trend towards $15.75 key resistance. The low of the trading range moves up to $15.25 with the recent advance and think we are moving higher for an eventual test of $15.95/$16.00.
first support: $15.45
resistance: $15.65/$15.70
possible range: much the same
July meal: The overall direction is sideways/lower, and prices are once again testing major support at $395.00. Will watch to see if this level can hold for the day, though there is more of a chance that we head back under as the chart shows inherent weakness. OVerall trading range could be $395.00-$425.00 if $395.00 can hold. Today is a good test to see if it will.
key support: $394.50 / $395.00
resistance: $400.00/$402.00
possible range; much the same or lower
July soyoil: This chart is the most bullish with the trend still sideways/higher. The market trading range was 65c to 68c, but key support now moves up to 67c with the chance that prices build on gains and tests 70c again. First support should hold which is now 68c. Look to own pullbacks for higher trade back over 69c.
first support: 68.50c
resistance: 69c/6950c
possible range; much the same
JULY WHEAT: The overall low of the move was $6.39 1/2, where a rejection low has now created a more bullish “v” bottom. The trend is neutral with an ADX at 25, however this pattern has in the past led to higher prices. Additionally, we are still closer to the lower end of the range than not. Good support returns to $6.75 once again on the bounce, which is both the 50 day moving average as well as where the uptrend line on the “v” meets. A trade above $7.02 will be over yesterday’s high and above minor trendline resistance, and think we probably go there for a $6.75 – $7.35 trading range. If short, would elect to cover on a trade over $7.05.
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