Author: Author: Nathan Harris, Ag Optimus, Akron, IA Branch
COT Report & Market Recap: Managed Money’s Big Impact – March 1 Update
📊 Commitment of Traders (COT) Report – Key Takeaways
- Managed Money flow played a major role in last week’s price action.
- CFTC report (released Friday) is based on Tuesday’s data, meaning it lags recent market moves.
- Ag markets took a hit since the report’s data cutoff—suggesting even bigger position shifts have occurred.
🌽 Corn Market: Liquidation & Planting Season Impact
- Managed Money lightened positions before last week’s sell-off.
- Current estimate: Net long below 300k contracts after additional liquidation.
- Key Question: Will funds continue to exit, or find stability ahead of planting?
- Market View: Some stability may return as we build risk premium for the 2025 crop.
🌱 Soybeans & Wheat: Speculators Stay on the Sidelines
- Soybean Market:
✅ Minimal Managed Money exposure—funds waiting for trade war updates & planting progress. - Wheat Market:
🔻 Managed Money deeply short Chicago Wheat (-67k contracts) and continued selling last week.
🐂 Cattle Markets: Fund-Driven Rally Faces Resistance
- Live Cattle:
🔺 Funds built positions to 130k+ net long but charts now show technical weakness.(opinion)
🔻 Friday saw large liquidation, likely due to month-end selling. - Feeder Cattle:
🔺 Managed Money record long at 30k+ contracts—indicating high risk if a sell-off occurs.
⚠ Market View: Funds still comfortable for now, but chart damage raises concerns.
🐖 Hog Market: A Wild Ride Due to Tariff Risks
- Hogs have defied gravity, thanks to massive fund buying in recent months.
- Last week showed how quickly liquidation can hit, wiping out over half of the gains since mid-August.
- Tariff concerns are shaking up the market, making funds rethink their positions.
- Summer Outlook:
🔹 Fund length is a risk, but market conditions could support a rebound.
🔹 Limited hog supply for packers (due to disease concerns) could tighten availability.
🔹 Bullish Setup? Some traders may consider the long side of summer hogs.
📢 Final Thoughts: What to Watch in March
✔ Corn: Stability may return as risk premium builds for the new crop.
✔ Soybeans: Funds staying on the sidelines—watch trade war & planting updates.
✔ Wheat: Heavy short positions mean potential volatility ahead.
✔ Cattle: Fund liquidation could create turbulence after last week’s sell-off.
✔ Hogs: Tariff concerns and fund selling have shaken the market—supply issues could support a rebound.
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